Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Prices

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Bazzi ◽  
Chris Blattman
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Absence Of Evidence

scholarly journals EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OF EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY OF AN ECONOMY: CASE OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (39) ◽  
pp. 503-511
Author(s):  
О. Bazhenova ◽  
І. Chornodid ◽  
Yu. Yarmolenko ◽  
О. Golubev
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Noise Signal ◽  
Sustainability Indicators ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
External Sustainability

Abstract. The paper deals with the early warning system that allows monitoring the external sustainability of an economy due to external economic shocks. For this purpose, the analysis of the external sustainability indicators system of an economy (example of Ukraine) was implemented. It consisted of statistical analysis of the system of indicators of external sustainability of an economy, probabilistic assessment of their dynamics due to external economic shocks. The analysis of external sustainability indicators includes verifying their volatility, stability and variability relative to GDP. It means calculation of standard deviation for testing the volatility, autocorrelation to check the stability of the indicator and correlation between its value and GDP growth rate to measure the variability relative to the economy’s performance. The calculations of threshold percentiles for indicators of external sustainability of Ukraine’s economy, noise-signal ratios and probabilities of the occurrence of unsustainable external perturbationsare based on signal approach. The analysis of indicators of external sustainability of Ukraine’s economy shows that most indicators are volatile relative to their average values.It is shown that most indicators of the external sustainability of Ukraine’s economy are acyclic as they are weakly correlated with the growth rate of GDP, although their turning points coincide in many cases. Procyclical indicators are the ratio of reserve assets to «broad money», the ratio of net foreign assets to GDP, the average interest rate on external government liabilities, countercyclical indicators are the ratio of reserve assets to short-term external debt, the share of external public debt denominated in foreign currency to the total amount of external government obligations (except for SDR). Keywords: external sustainability, early warning system of external sustainability, external economic shocks, commodity prices, debt sustainability, social and market efficiency. JEL Classification F30, F40, F62 Formulas: 0; fig.: 1;tabl.: 0; bibl.: 24.

scholarly journals Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Bazzi ◽  
Christopher Blattman
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Time Dependence ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
State Capture ◽  
State Revenues

Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counter-insurgency capacity and reduce individual incentives to fight in existing conflicts. Conflict onset and continuation follow different processes. Ignoring this time dependence generates mistaken conclusions about income and instability. (JEL D72, D74, O13, O17, O19, Q02, Q34)

COVID-19 shocks point to recession in Latin America

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Space ◽  
Financial Conditions

Subject The economic impact of COVID-19. Significance COVID-19 arrived in Latin America relatively late, but the response from governments has been mixed, and cases are now rising exponentially. The region faces multiple economic shocks: to domestic economic activity, export demand, tourism, commodity prices and financial conditions. Following years of weak economic performance, there is limited space for fiscal and monetary stimulus. Impacts New waves of unrest could follow a recession, particularly if governments are seen to have mishandled the crisis. Leaders who have downplayed the threat from coronavirus and been slow to act could face a backlash as the crisis deepens. Venezuela is particularly vulnerable to a pandemic.

The role of inter-household transfers in mitigating the impact of economic shocks on income distribution in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-763
Author(s):  
Wisnu Winardi
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 outbreak has triggered many economic shocks globally. In this study we estimate the role of inter-households transfer in mitigating the impacts of the outbreak on Indonesian economy using a CGE model. The result shows that commodity prices and enactment of physical distancing measures bring negative impacts on the economy. Government response by lowering direct tax rates and increasing transfer to households could not fully compensate the impacts but enlighten it slightly. Households response by increasing inter-household transfers helps the government policy, particularly in reducing the decrease of households’ income and consumption. The result indicates that inter-household transfer could be regarded as an effective instrument to improve the household income distribution quality and reduce the poverty. Regarding that, stakeholders in the economy should improve the collaborative policies to capitalize the policy instruments optimally. Furthermore, the result also indicates that household consumption is not a sustainable engine to boost the economic growth. Prioritizing consumption over saving in the long run could lead to inability of the economy to engage a self-financed investment.

scholarly journals The effect of commodity prices on voting for the left and the right in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Rettl
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
The Right ◽  
Type Shift ◽  
Do So

How do economic shocks impact electoral outcomes? I bring novel evidence to this debate by analyzing how a sharp drop in commodity prices that begun in 2011 affected Brazilian political behavior and public opinion. I do so by computing the exposure of Brazilian municipalities to this sharp drop in commodity prices with a Bartik-type shift-share instrument. I conclude that in municipalities more exposed to a negative commodity shock, right-wing parties had an advantage in the 2018 presidential election, while left-wing parties lost support. By linking Manifesto Project scores with electoral data, I show that the parties that were benefited from this sharp drop in commodity prices had a liberal economic agenda and a conservative and authoritarian non-economic platform. Using survey data, I provide evidence that the shock has an effect on conservative and authoritarian attitudes, but not on anti-establishment and anti-incument attitudes.

Russian Banking System under Conditions of Global Crisis

2009 ◽  
pp. 4-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Gref ◽  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Banking System ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Current Economic Crisis ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face

Problems in the financial sector were at the core of the current economic crisis. Therefore, economic recovery will only become sustainable after taking care of the major weaknesses in the financial sector. This conclusion is relevant both for the US and UK - the two countries where crisis has started, and for other economies which financial institutions turned out to be fragile in the face of the swings in the risk appetite. Russia is one of the countries where the crisis has revealed serious deficiency in the financial sector. Our study of 11 banking crises during the last 25-30 years shows that sustainable economic recovery and decrease in the dependence on commodity prices will be virtually impossible without cleaning of balance sheets and capitalization of the financial sector.

A Factor Model for Co-Movements of Commodity Prices

CFA Digest ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vipul K. Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Commodity Prices

Farzana Naqvi. Energy, Economy and Equity Interactions in a CGE Model for Pakistan. Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing Company, 1997. Hardbound. Price not given. xxii+290 pages.

1999 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-222
Author(s):  
Hina Nazli
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Foreign Markets ◽  
Nontraded Goods ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
International Donor ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Donor Agencies

Modernisation of the agricultural, industrial and household sectors causes the demand for energy to increase more rapidly than its supply. In countries that aim to modernise quickly a heavy investment is required to redress this imbalance. That is why in countries such as Pakistan, the energy has remained on the top of the agenda of loan negotiation with international donor agencies. Energy serves as both a final consumption good and as an essential intermediate input in the production of goods. Thus any change in the price of energy at both these levels affects consumption as well as production and that, in turn, can cause changes in the prices of all other commodities. A change in the prices of exportables affects their demand in foreign markets and any change in the prices of import-competing and nontraded goods affects their demand at home. The net effects of all these changes can be measured in terms of the effects on real GDP, balance of trade, and government revenue. And, because any change in commodity prices exerts a negative impact on real consumption of households; the formulation of a comprehensive energy policy requires a framework that can take the immense complexity of the linkages of all the sectors of the economy into consideration. In the book under review, Dr Farzana Naqvi, argues that the issues of energy pricing can not be examined in isolation and presents a general equilibrium framework to address the complex issues related to energy, economy and equity.

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