A New Forecasting Model to Improve Earned Value Index to Achieve an Accurate Project Time and Cost Estimation

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iman Attarzadeh ◽  
Siew Hock Ow
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Earned Value

Risk Analysis Using Earned Value

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 22-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scheljert Denas
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Performance Indexes ◽  
Illustrative Case Study

Control and feedback in complex and sensitive systems with different resources and properties in uncertainty conditions are one of the significant challenges for project managers. Therefore, in this paper an integrated model with quantitative and qualitative approach based on Earned value management and risk analysis methods proposed to decrease deviations in time and cost estimation at complete (EAC(t) & EAC). Using the proposed performance indexes based on risk scores obtained by non-parametric resampling technique, namely bootstrap, calculating more accurate estimations of final cost and duration at lower and upper band with various confidence levels will be possible. Finally, an illustrative case study presented demonstrating the proposed model can be efficiently applied through real case software projects.

A Simple Method for Cost Estimating and Controlling

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 58-61
Author(s):  
Fanny Fanny
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Cost Management ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Earned Value Analysis ◽  
Cost Controlling

Based on software project survey from Standish Group’s “CHAOS Report”, 29% of software projects in large enterprises can be delivered on time and not over budget, 53% of software project were over budget or had some problem with the schedule, and 18% of software project were failed. This means that cost management is very important to prevent the possibility of project’s failure. Therefore, in this paper, we provide and recommend some methods and technique in order to do cost estimation and cost controlling as the crucial part of project cost management. We recommend Activity-Base Costing method for cost estimation and Earned Value Analysis for cost controlling. As the result of this paper, these two methods can be applied properly to real project and ease the project manager to estimate and control the cost of the project. 

Using Gray Forecasting Estimates Cost of Aviation Project

2006 ◽  
Vol 532-533 ◽  
pp. 725-728
Author(s):  
Ming Yang ◽  
Yuan Li ◽  
Yong Chao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Traditional Method ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Accuracy Estimation ◽  
Historical Cost ◽  
Estimation Precision ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Cost

China aviation project has little sample and the traditional method can not estimate the project cost accurately. This paper proposes a method estimating aviation project cost based on gray systematic theory. We divide aviation product into systems or parts and regard them as cost estimation unit. The gray forecasting model GM (1, 1) was set up based on historical cost data of cost estimation unit. If the model’s precision doesn’t meet with the requirement of aviation project cost estimation, the revision model GM (1, 1) must be set up to raise the estimation precision The experimental results show the method can get the more high-accuracy estimation value using the little sample and is suitable for the cost estimation of the our country aviation project.

Biorefinery implementation for recovery debottlenecking at existing pulp mills- Part II: Techno-economic evaluation

TAPPI Journal ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 17-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
HAKIM GHEZZAZ ◽  
LUC PELLETIER ◽  
PAUL R. STUART
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Black Liquor ◽  
Pulp Mill ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Extraction Process ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Precipitation Process

The evaluation and process risk assessment of (a) lignin precipitation from black liquor, and (b) the near-neutral hemicellulose pre-extraction for recovery boiler debottlenecking in an existing pulp mill is presented in Part I of this paper, which was published in the July 2012 issue of TAPPI Journal. In Part II, the economic assessment of the two biorefinery process options is presented and interpreted. A mill process model was developed using WinGEMS software and used for calculating the mass and energy balances. Investment costs, operating costs, and profitability of the two biorefinery options have been calculated using standard cost estimation methods. The results show that the two biorefinery options are profitable for the case study mill and effective at process debottlenecking. The after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of the lignin precipitation process option was estimated to be 95%, while that of the hemicellulose pre-extraction process option was 28%. Sensitivity analysis showed that the after tax-IRR of the lignin precipitation process remains higher than that of the hemicellulose pre-extraction process option, for all changes in the selected sensitivity parameters. If we consider the after-tax IRR, as well as capital cost, as selection criteria, the results show that for the case study mill, the lignin precipitation process is more promising than the near-neutral hemicellulose pre-extraction process. However, the comparison between the two biorefinery options should include long-term evaluation criteria. The potential of high value-added products that could be produced from lignin in the case of the lignin precipitation process, or from ethanol and acetic acid in the case of the hemicellulose pre-extraction process, should also be considered in the selection of the most promising process option.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document