Structural and Statistical Approaches to Estimating Output Gap: First Attempt on Pakistan

Abstract Analysis of manufacturing data as a tool for failure analysts often meets with roadblocks due to the complex non-linear behaviors of the relationships between failure rates and explanatory variables drawn from process history. The current work describes how the use of a comprehensive engineering database and data mining technology over-comes some of these difficulties and enables new classes of problems to be solved. The characteristics of the database design necessary for adequate data coverage and unit traceability are discussed. Data mining technology is explained and contrasted with traditional statistical approaches as well as those of expert systems, neural nets, and signature analysis. Data mining is applied to a number of common problem scenarios. Finally, future trends in data mining technology relevant to failure analysis are discussed.

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DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan ◽

10.31685/kek.v15i2.91 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 37-52

Author(s):

Mahpud Sujai

Keyword(s):

Linear Trend ◽

The State ◽

Oil Price ◽

Output Gap ◽

State Budget ◽

Price Changes ◽

Potential Output ◽

Budget Cycle ◽

Actual Output ◽

The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

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