Autocorrelation and Stock Price Forecasts: An Implementation of the Residual Income Model

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huong N. Higgins
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model

scholarly journals PENILAIAN HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN PEMBIAYAAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Kim Hong ◽  
Fakhruddin Nasution
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model

<span>The purpose of multi finance companies’ stock price valuation is to know their intrinsic <span>values by performing fundamental analysis using dividend discount model, free cash flow to the firm model, free cash flow to equity model, and residual income model. Research data uses secondary data in the period of 2006-2010 which consists of Indonesian Stock Price Composite Index (IHSG), and multi finance companies’ stock prices taken from Yahoo Finance; multi finance companies’ financial statements taken from Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) reports; multi finance industry data taken from Bapepam-LK. As a result of research, stock of ADMF is fair valued by using the analysis of dividend<br />discount model; undervalued by using the analysis of free cash flow to the firm and free cash flow to equity models; overvalued by using the analysis of residual income model. Stock of BFIN is undervalued by using the analysis of dividend discount, free cash flow to the firm, and free cash flow to equity models; overvalued by using the analysis of residual income model. Stock of MFIN is overvalued by using the analysis of dividend discount<br />and residual income models; undervalued by using the analysis of free cash flow to the firm and free cash flow to equity models. Statistic t-test shows that there are no significant differences to value stock prices using dividend discount, free cash flow to the firm, free cash flow to equity, and residual income models, therefore investment analyst or investor may use one of the chosen stock price valuation model.<br />Keywords: Multi finance companies, Fundamental analysis, Stock price valuation model, Intrinsic value, Required return, Investment risk<br /></span></span>

scholarly journals A PROPOSED ARCHIVAL EMPIRICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TO TEST RELIABITIY AND VALIDITY OF DISCOUNTED RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-59
Author(s):  
Min Shirley Liu
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Measuring Instrument ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
True Variance ◽  
Income Model

Kerlinger and Lee (2000) defines reliability as “the proportion of the ‘true’ variance to the total obtained variance of the data yielded by a measuring instrument” and content validity as “representativeness or sampling adequacy of the content—the substance, the matter, the topic of measuring instrument”. The goal of this research is to provide an empirical research method to quantify the reliability and validity of residual income model in the prediction of the value of equity (stock price), by proposing to compare all active U.S. firms from 1981 to 2005 traded in the NYSE and the AMEX (the time period and listed stocks are subject to change based upon the availability of data from different sources). JEL Classification Codes: G10, G17, M41, Z10.

scholarly journals Bank Valuation Models – A Comparative Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Chitra Gunshekhar Gounder ◽  
M. Venkateshwarlu
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model ◽  
Relative Valuation

The Bank valuation model was designed based on objective to fit  the most  applicable  valuation model for banks to help in forecasting bank specific decision and also forecast the market value of share. First study the accuracy and explanatory value of the value estimates from the residual income model compared to the estimates from the Relative valuation model for banks. Empirical evidence suggests that the residual income model is superior to the relative valuation model when it comes to measuring bank shareholder value. The results of the comparison suggest that value estimates from the residual income model are even more reliable for banks. On this basis, we conclude that residual income is an appropriate value estimate for the shareholder value of banks. There was positive significant relationship identified between the intrinsic value of bank share determined by RIV model and Market price of share in all the cases by performing correlation and Regression study. This study will be useful for forecasting the possible changes in market price. It was identified that determinants vary as per the working and regulatory condition as determinants impacting private, public and Indian banks were not similar so panel regression model will vary for each cases. It was also identified that Public Sector Bank in India shows more positive progressive trend as compared to private Sector Bank even after the fact that public Sector Bank has higher regulatory restriction as compared to Private Sector banks. This research will serve very useful for the banker to plan and take decision regarding shareholder value creation by implementing proper valuation model for getting appropriate value estimate and also adopting proper internal performance measure for having accurate and regular check on the process of value creation. 

Do combining value estimates increase valuation accuracy? Evidence from Indian chemical industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Tiwari ◽  
Harish Kumar Singla
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Chemical Industry ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model

Purpose – Being a developing nation with huge opportunity of growth prospects the assessment of valuation models becomes important to have a more realistic value estimate. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the comparative accuracy and explanatory performance of discounted cash flow (DCF) and residual income model (RIM) valuation models for the Indian chemical industry and come up with a composite valuation model. Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the objective of the study the authors first determine the intrinsic values using both the models. Comparisons of the models are based on prediction errors and the explanatory performance of market value on value estimates. The study uses panel regression to forecast estimates of earnings and measure explanatory performance. The authors examine the ability of the value estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in the observed market values. The study also uses GMM method for deriving robust estimators. Variables for the study are collected from the CMIE’s prowess data base (release 4). The authors consider all 1,075 BSE listed chemical companies for the purpose of the study. The study uses annual data points starting from 31 March 2002 to 31 March 2011. Findings – The comparative framework shows that both Residual Income model and Composite Valuation model are superior to Discounted cash flow model and are equally likely. But since composite value estimates considers all bonafide informations of individual models, the estimates of Composite Valuation model becomes more reliable. Research limitations/implications – The study only compares and combines the two most widely used valuation models around the world. Future studies can be conducted using the third widely used valuation models, i.e. multiples and see the level of accuracy of individuals as well as the composite model. Originality/value – As a concern very few research has been conducted in this area in India. This paper provides practitioners with a snapshot of the applicability of DCF and RIM valuation models. And also shows how a composite value estimate can improve accuracy.

scholarly journals Valuation properties of accounting numbers in Brazil

2004 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-36
Author(s):  
Alexsandro Broedel Lopes
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Accounting Numbers ◽  
Dividend Distribution ◽  
Comparable Performance ◽  
Income Model

This work investigates the valuation properties of accounting numbers in Brazil under three traditional frameworks: earnings capitalization, book value of equity and residual income. The sample was selected from companies traded at the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA) from 1995 to 1999, dividing the sample in two groups: companies with preferred and with common shares. My results show that the earnings capitalization model did not perform well for common shares and have a better performance for preferred shares because of the mandatory dividend distribution as a percentage of net income in Brazil and because earnings have no use as information asymmetry reducers in Brazil. The book value model performed better for common shares while residual income had a comparable performance and seems to be the dominant accounting-based valuation model for common shares. For preferred shares the residual income model performs better. The residual income term alone presents no significant difference for the two sets of companies. For both set of companies accounting income did not incorporated economic income.

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