International Conflict as a Central Environmental Description in a Long- Range Forecasting Model

1973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Escavich ◽  
Larry German
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Forecasting Model

scholarly journals Effect of tectonic setting on the fit and performance of a long-range earthquake forecasting model

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
David Alan Rhoades ◽  
Paul G. Somerville ◽  
Felipe Dimer de Oliveira ◽  
Hong Kie Thio
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Information Gain ◽  
Tectonic Setting ◽  
Depth Resolution ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Testing Period ◽  
Crustal Earthquakes ◽  
Average Information ◽  
Better Than

The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) long-range earthquake forecasting model has been shown to be informative in several seismically active regions, including New Zealand, California and Japan. In previous applications of the model, the tectonic setting of earthquakes has been ignored. Here we distinguish crustal, plate interface, and slab earthquakes and apply the model to earthquakes with magnitude M≥4 in the Japan region from 1926 onwards. The target magnitude range is M≥ 6; the fitting period is 1966-1995; and the testing period is 1996-2005. In forecasting major slab earthquakes, it is optimal to use only slab and interface events as precursors. In forecasting major interface events, it is optimal to use only interface events as precursors. In forecasting major crustal events, it is optimal to use only crustal events as precursors. For the smoothed-seismicity component of the EEPAS model, it is optimal to use slab and interface events for earthquakes in the slab, interface events only for earthquakes on the interface, and crustal and interface events for crustal earthquakes. The optimal model parameters indicate that the precursor areas for slab earthquakes are relatively small compared to those for earthquakes in other tectonic categories, and that the precursor times and precursory earthquake magnitudes for crustal earthquakes are relatively large. The optimal models fit the learning data sets better than the raw EEPAS model, with an average information gain per earthquake of about 0.4. The average information gain is similar in the testing period, although it is higher for crustal earthquakes and lower for slab and interface earthquakes than in the learning period. These results show that earthquake interactions are stronger between earthquakes of similar tectonic types and that distinguishing tectonic types improves forecasts by enhancing the depth resolution where tectonic categories of earthquakes are vertically separated. However, when depth resolution is ignored, the model formed by aggregating the optimal forecasts for each tectonic category performs no better than the raw EEPAS model.

scholarly journals A Bayesian forecasting model of international conflict

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-242
Author(s):  
George W Williford ◽  
Douglas B Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Bayesian Forecasting ◽  
Strong Interest ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Cross National

Scholars and practitioners in international relations have a strong interest in forecasting international conflict. However, due to the complexity of forecasting rare events, existing attempts to predict the onset of international conflict in a cross-national setting have generally had low rates of success. In this paper, we apply Bayesian methods to develop a forecasting model designed to predict the onset of international conflict at the yearly level. We find that this model performs substantially better at producing accurate predictions both in and out of sample.

How Violence Breeds Violence: Some Utilitarian Considerations

Politics ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurie Calhoun
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Long Range ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Just War ◽  
Just War Theory ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Philosophical Writing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Made In

Recent philosophical writing about war has focused upon just war theory, especially how best to construe the ius ad bellum and ius in bello tenets, and whether the distinction between combatants and non-combatants can be made in the modern world. Historically and politically, calls to war have often appealed to utilitarian considerations. In this article, I discuss important long-range consequences rarely mentioned in utilitarian defences of particular decisions to engage states in war. When consequences are weighed fully not only in the short term but with an eye to the future, bearing the destiny of all people in mind, it emerges that belligerent approaches to international conflict resolution will not maximise utility.

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