Impact of the Finance Act 2020 on Gas Utilization Projects
Abstract The newly passed Finance Act 2020 (FA2020) in Nigeria is reviewed especially as it relates to the oil and gas industry. The review is partly executed by modeling the specific provisions of the Act that impact gas utilization projects. The effect of the provisions on investor returns as well as the extent to which government objectives are met is ascertained – the government objectives being to prevent tax leakage via excessive financing costs, as well as encourage gas development and utilization. A qualitative assessment of the FA2020 is first conducted to examine its provisions applicable to the oil and gas sector. Furthermore, a spreadsheet Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) economic model of a gas central processing facility is built. A hypothetical $800Million (CapEx), 300mmscfd gas processing facility, which is 70% debt financed is modeled by incorporating the provisions of the FA2020. The metrics of the project (both investor and government) are then compared under the scenarios of with and without the FA2020. Key results indicate that the economic returns to investor in the gas processing facility are still largely preserved at a healthy level, even as government take improves by $102Million due to the FA2020. Specifically, without the FA2020, investor returns an IRR of 21.11% while due to the FA2020, investor IRR declines to 19.79%. Sensitivity analysis serves to illustrate one of the aims of the FA2020, which is to prevent tax loss from high cost of financing. Lengthening the tenor of loans reduces the fraction of the financing costs that is tax deductible. The modeling result shows that, ceteris paribus, for one (1) year increase in loan tenor, the amount of financing cost that is tax deductible reduces by 5%. Another important outcome is that for every $1 of government receipts preserved/enhanced by the FA, the investor NPV declines by 38cents This impact assessment of the FA2020 on gas utilization projects is conducted against the backdrop of several government pronouncements and policy positions to encourage domestic gas development. Financing plays an important role in delivering gas projects, consequently the evaluation of the impact of the FA2020 becomes imperative. This is to allow an examination of the effect of the Act on the ability to meet the strategic objective of powering the economy via gas while fulfilling Nigeria’s climate change commitments by deeper adoption of gas as a transition fuel.