Improving Production Forecasting in a Mature Onshore Oilfield Brownfield in Southern Trinidad by Making Use of Software Modeling

In Trinidad's mature onshore oilfields, operators have traditionally forecasted the initial production rates back calculated from decline models. These rates, then reduced annually by a predetermined decline model has been used to evaluate financial feasibility. This method does not make use of the reservoir pressure. This paper demonstrates how software modelling, utilizing the reservoir pressure can reasonably forecast the performance of low rate oil producers and alert the operator of the need for artificial lift from the inception of the production cycle. The objectives of the project were to determine remaining recoverable reserves, evaluate the potential for redevelopment (workovers and infill drilling) and to demonstrate that software modeling can be used to forecast production for an oil reservoir in a mature onshore oilfield in Southern Trinidad. Petroleum Experts Integrated Production Modeling (IPM) software suite was used for building all models. A comparison of the production forecasted by software modelling and the traditional method of forecasting initial production rates by back calculating from decline models was also undertaken. Using the available data and net oilsand maps, the fault block bulk volumes, oil in place and the remaining reserves were determined. These results were then used to identify fault blocks with potential workover well candidates and infill well locations. Research of well files and well logs were used in evaluating zones for potential recompletions, reperforation or perforation of additional footage for production. Forecasting and comparison of the initial production rates and ultimate cumulative production for the proposed infill wells and recompletions using the traditional IP/Decline model method and computer modeling was then performed. Form the data available, it was determined there were four blocks with remaining reserves that could be successfully recovered. The recovery methods proposed included the workover of two existing wells and drilling of two infill wells. Initial production rates and ultimate production volumes obtained by modeling of workover and new well performance had reasonably close agreement with those obtained by the traditional IP/Decline models. The results of the modeling, however indicated that all the wells required the use of pumping mechanisms (sucker rod/beam pumps) to sustain production over a ten-year period. The need for this important production mechanism would not have been realized from the IP/Decline method. An important distinction is that the modelling makes direct use of the reservoir pressure, whereas the IP/Decline model does not.