Record of Historical Gulf of Mexico Storms Preserved In the Stratigraphy of Gum Hollow Delta, Nueces Bay, Texas, U.S.A.: An Example of Tropical-Cyclone-Induced Hyperpycnal Deposition

2013 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Garrison ◽  
S. P. Miller ◽  
A. M. Mestas-Nunez ◽  
J. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Nueces Bay

scholarly journals Predicting Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Activity in April

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 436-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elinor Keith ◽  
Lian Xie
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Random Chance ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Seasonal hurricane forecasts are continuing to develop skill, although they are still subject to large uncertainties. This study uses a new methodology of cross-correlating variables against empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the hurricane track density function (HTDF) to select predictors. These predictors are used in a regression model for forecasting seasonal named storm, hurricane, and major hurricane activity in the entire Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, a scheme for predicting landfalling tropical systems along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, southeastern, and northeastern coastlines is developed, but predicting landfalling storms adds an extra layer of uncertainty to an already complex problem, and on the whole these predictions do not perform as well. The model performs well in the basin-wide predictions over the entire Atlantic and Caribbean, with the predictions showing an improvement over climatology and random chance at a 95% confidence level. Over the Gulf of Mexico, only named storms showed that level of predictability. Predicting landfalls proves more difficult, and only the prediction of named storms along the U.S. southeastern and Gulf coasts shows an improvement over random chance at the 95% confidence level. Tropical cyclone activity along the U.S. northeastern coast is found to be unpredictable in this model; with the rarity of events, the model is unstable.

Influence of a Predecessor Rain Event on the Track of Tropical Cyclone Isaac (2012)

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (9) ◽  
pp. 3354-3376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Galarneau
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Straits Of Florida ◽  
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Tropical Moisture

Abstract Analysis of a predecessor rain event (PRE) over the Straits of Florida ahead of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Isaac on 25 August 2012 is presented. This PRE is unique compared to previously documented PREs in midlatitudes because it occurred over the oceanic subtropics and impacted the track of an approaching TC. The Isaac PRE developed in conjunction with a tropical moisture plume with precipitable water values over 60 mm that intersected a region of mid- and upper-level frontogenesis and warm air advection on the southeast flank of an upper-level trough. The PRE occurred in an environment with more abundant tropical moisture and weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent compared to the environments in which midlatitude PREs developed. The Isaac PRE contributed to the fracture of the upper-level trough through negative potential vorticity advection by convectively driven divergent outflow. Fracture of the upper-level trough and midlevel cyclonic vorticity amplification associated with the PRE acted to steer Isaac south of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Global Forecast System (NCEP–GFS) initialized at 0000 UTC 21–24 August 2012 failed to predict the PRE and as a result recurved TC Isaac over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico rather than continued Isaac on a northwest course toward southeast Louisiana. Vorticity inversion and detailed diagnosis of the NCEP–GFS TC track forecast initialized at 0000 UTC 22 August is also presented to assess the relationship between the PRE and TC Isaac’s track.

On the Madden–Julian Oscillation–Atlantic Hurricane Relationship

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Potential Predictability

Abstract The large-scale equatorial circulation known as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been shown to impact tropical cyclone activity in several basins around the globe. In this paper, the author utilizes an MJO index created by Wheeler and Hendon to examine its impacts on tropical genesis and intensification in the Atlantic. Large differences in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone activity are seen, both in the tropical Atlantic as well as in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico depending on the MJO phase. Coherent changes in upper- and lower-level winds and relative humidity are likely responsible for these differences. Since the MJO shows potential predictability out to about two weeks, the relationships discussed in this paper may be useful for short-term predictions of the probability of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic as a complement to the already available longer-term seasonal predictions.

scholarly journals Improving Tropical Cyclone Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Cook
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s newest High Resolution Atmospheric Model captures the influence of intraseasonal oscillations on tropical cyclone activity.

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