scholarly journals Characterization of Lightning Occurrence in Alaska Using Various Weather Indices for Lightning Forecasting

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murad Ahmed Farukh ◽  
◽  
Hiroshi Hayasaka ◽  
Keiji Kimura ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Environmental Temperature ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Controlling Factors ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Moist Air ◽  
Air Masses

Alaska lost 10% of its boreal forest area due to vigorous forest fires in 2004 and 2005. Repeated lightningcaused forest fires adversely impact residents and influence earth’s atmosphere in every fire season. The authors have reported on the weather conditions of Alaska’s most severe lightning occurrence in mid June 2005. This paper examines a range of weather indices like soar, instability, ‘dry lightning’ and other factors that could clearly explain lightning characteristics in Alaska. First, lightning occurrence days from May to September were classified into ‘non or small lightning’ days and ‘lightning’ days to determine threshold values. Second, ‘lightning’ days were categorized into ‘less severe,’ ‘severe,’ ‘very severe,’ and ‘extremely severe’ to notice controlling factors on the lightning severity. Based on this analysis, the lifted index (LIFT) was selected as sensitive to assess upper air instability, and Te850 (environmental temperature at 850 hPa) was selected as sensitive to assess warm and moist air masses. Finally, the possibilities of lightning forecasts in Alaska are discussed using lightning occurrence and LIFT and Te850 in 2005. As there is a time-lag between LIFT measurements (14:00) and the lightning peak (-17:00), and around one day time-lag between Te850 and lightning occurrence, lightning forecasts using LIFT and Te850 could provide a simply applicable forecast index for Alaska.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

Factors that affect the timing of the dispatch of initial attack resources to forest fires in northeastern Ontario, Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambika Paudel ◽  
David L. Martell ◽  
Douglas G. Woolford
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Attack Response ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Do So

The success of forest fire initial attack systems is believed to be affected by many factors including the initial attack response time. Despite the fact that fire managers typically strive to dispatch initial attack resources to most fires soon after they are reported in order to minimise their response time, they may not always be able to do so as the timing of the initial attack dispatch can be influenced by many factors. We examine the effects of the following factors on the initial attack dispatch process: the daily fire load (the number of fires reported each day), the time of day the fire was reported, fire weather conditions, fire cause and the month of the fire season, on the probability that initial attack resources are dispatched on the day that a fire is reported. Logistic regression methods are used to analyse a dataset composed of 4532 forest fires that were reported in our study area in a portion of northeastern region of Ontario, Canada, during 1963–2012 fire seasons. Our results indicate that the time of day a fire is reported, the total number of fires reported on that day and the Initial Spread Index are key factors that influence the timing of the initial attack response in our study area.

scholarly journals Weather Conditions and Warm Air Masses in Southern Sakha During Active Forest Fire Periods

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Hayasaka ◽  
Koji Yamazaki ◽  
Daisuke Naito ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Forest fires are a common and destructive natural disaster in Russia. Weather conditions during active forest fire periods in southern Sakha (Eastern Siberia) at high latitudes (58–65°N, 120–140°E) were evaluated. Periods of high fire activity during 2002 to 2016 were identified using MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Weather conditions during the top seven periods of high fire activity were analyzed using atmospheric reanalysis data for upper (500 hPa) and lower levels (925 hPa). Our results showed that active fires occurred under varied weather conditions and it was difficult to find common weather patterns at both upper- and lower-levels during the seven most active fire periods. Furthermore, it was apparent that the northward movement of warm air masses (cTe: continental temperate) from lower latitudes (∼40°N) toward southern Sakha tended to exacerbate fires mainly due to strong wind conditions during the seven most active fire periods. In particular, on peak hotspot days, warm air masses from the south existed commonly near southern Sakha. This northward movement of warm air masses can be used to forecast fire and predict future fires in the region.

scholarly journals AnANN Model Trained on Regional Data in the Prediction of Particular Weather Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4757
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Bączkiewicz ◽  
Jarosław Wątróbski ◽  
Wojciech Sałabun ◽  
Joanna Kołodziejczyk
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
The World ◽  
The City

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have proven to be a powerful tool for solving a wide variety of real-life problems. The possibility of using them for forecasting phenomena occurring in nature, especially weather indicators, has been widely discussed. However, the various areas of the world differ in terms of their difficulty and ability in preparing accurate weather forecasts. Poland lies in a zone with a moderate transition climate, which is characterized by seasonality and the inflow of many types of air masses from different directions, which, combined with the compound terrain, causes climate variability and makes it difficult to accurately predict the weather. For this reason, it is necessary to adapt the model to the prediction of weather conditions and verify its effectiveness on real data. The principal aim of this study is to present the use of a regressive model based on a unidirectional multilayer neural network, also called a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), to predict selected weather indicators for the city of Szczecin in Poland. The forecast of the model we implemented was effective in determining the daily parameters at 96% compliance with the actual measurements for the prediction of the minimum and maximum temperature for the next day and 83.27% for the prediction of atmospheric pressure.

Potential Impacts of Extreme Heat and Bushfires on Dementia

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 969-978
Author(s):  
Taya L. Farugia ◽  
Carla Cuni-Lopez ◽  
Anthony R. White
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Low Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Indigenous Populations ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Diagnosis Of Dementia

Australia often experiences natural disasters and extreme weather conditions such as: flooding, sandstorms, heatwaves, and bushfires (also known as wildfires or forest fires). The proportion of the Australian population aged 65 years and over is increasing, alongside the severity and frequency of extreme weather conditions and natural disasters. Extreme heat can affect the entire population but particularly at the extremes of life, and patients with morbidities. Frequently identified as a vulnerable demographic in natural disasters, there is limited research on older adults and their capacity to deal with extreme heat and bushfires. There is a considerable amount of literature that suggests a significant association between mental disorders such as dementia, and increased vulnerability to extreme heat. The prevalence rate for dementia is estimated at 30%by age 85 years, but there has been limited research on the effects extreme heat and bushfires have on individuals living with dementia. This review explores the differential diagnosis of dementia, the Australian climate, and the potential impact Australia’s extreme heat and bushfires have on individuals from vulnerable communities including low socioeconomic status Indigenous and Non-Indigenous populations living with dementia, in both metropolitan and rural communities. Furthermore, we investigate possible prevention strategies and provide suggestions for future research on the topic of Australian bushfires and heatwaves and their impact on people living with dementia. This paper includes recommendations to ensure rural communities have access to appropriate support services, medical treatment, awareness, and information surrounding dementia.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Libonati ◽  
J. M. C. Pereira ◽  
C. C. Da Camara ◽  
L. F. Peres ◽  
D. Oom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
First Century ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
In Fire

AbstractBiomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003–2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Forest Fires in Southeastern Australia Using SAR Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2386
Author(s):  
Aqil Tariq ◽  
Hong Shu ◽  
Qingting Li ◽  
Orhan Altan ◽  
Mobushir Riaz Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Prescribed Burn ◽  
Backscatter Coefficient ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Sar Data ◽  
Sar Imagery

Prescribed burning is a common strategy for minimizing forest fire risk. Fire is introduced under specific environmental conditions, with explicit duration, intensity, and rate of spread. Such conditions deviate from those encountered during the fire season. Prescribed burns mostly affect surface fuels and understory vegetation, an outcome markedly different when compared to wildfires. Data on prescribed burning are crucial for evaluating whether land management targets have been reached. This research developed a methodology to quantify the effects of prescribed burns using multi-temporal Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery in the forests of southeastern Australia. C-band SAR datasets were specifically used to statistically explore changes in radar backscatter coefficients with the intensity of prescribed burns. Two modeling approaches based on pre- and post-fire ratios were applied for evaluating prescribed burn impacts. The effects of prescribed burns were documented with an overall accuracy of 82.3% using cross-polarized backscatter (VH) SAR data under dry conditions. The VV polarization indicated some potential to detect burned areas under wet conditions. The findings in this study indicate that the C-band SAR backscatter coefficient has the potential to evaluate the effectiveness of prescribed burns due to its sensitivity to changes in vegetation structure.

Le feu : agent de contrôle des insectes

1994 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 468-472
Author(s):  
M. Martin Dupuis
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Control ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Wild Fire ◽  
Controlled Burning ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Evolution Understanding

For millenia, fire and insects have played an important role in forested land evolution. Understanding the roles they play can be important in helping us not only to control them, but to use them as an ecological tool. Also, we notice some important interactions between these two agents. As insects affect fire, fire may control insect pests. Controlled burning may provide excellent results, but allows a very slight margin for possible errors. Fire use as an insect mangement tool, requires a very precise and wide knowledge of weather conditions, fire intensity, insect's life cycle, available fuels, and type of ecosystem involved.After a long run of experiences and research, we notice that fire has been and will always be an important factor in equilibrium of some ecosystems. Since wild fire prevention campaigns and the emergence of insecticides, some forests have become excessively vulnerable to insect pests. Proper knowledge, and use of fire control, rather than immediate suppression of forest fires, would allow us to conserve various ecosystems in a healthy balance.

Projected changes in pyroconvective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martín Senande-Rivera ◽  
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Plume ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wildfire Spread ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Extreme wildfire events associated with strong pyroconvection have gained the attention of the scientific community and the society in recent years. Strong convection in the fire plume can influence fire behaviour, as downdrafts can cause abrupt variations in surface wind direction and speed that can result in bursts of unexpected fire propagation. Climate change is expected to increase the length of the fire season and the extreme wildfire potential, so the risk of pyroconvection occurence might be also altered. Here, we analyse atmospheric stability and near-surface fire weather conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century to assess the projected changes in pyroconvective risk during favourable weather conditions for wildfire spread.  </p>

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