scholarly journals Weather Conditions and Warm Air Masses in Southern Sakha During Active Forest Fire Periods

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Hayasaka ◽  
Koji Yamazaki ◽  
Daisuke Naito ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Forest fires are a common and destructive natural disaster in Russia. Weather conditions during active forest fire periods in southern Sakha (Eastern Siberia) at high latitudes (58–65°N, 120–140°E) were evaluated. Periods of high fire activity during 2002 to 2016 were identified using MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Weather conditions during the top seven periods of high fire activity were analyzed using atmospheric reanalysis data for upper (500 hPa) and lower levels (925 hPa). Our results showed that active fires occurred under varied weather conditions and it was difficult to find common weather patterns at both upper- and lower-levels during the seven most active fire periods. Furthermore, it was apparent that the northward movement of warm air masses (cTe: continental temperate) from lower latitudes (∼40°N) toward southern Sakha tended to exacerbate fires mainly due to strong wind conditions during the seven most active fire periods. In particular, on peak hotspot days, warm air masses from the south existed commonly near southern Sakha. This northward movement of warm air masses can be used to forecast fire and predict future fires in the region.

Forest Fire Propagation in Inclined Terrains

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Satoh ◽  
K. T. Yang
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Fire Control ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Hot Air ◽  
Fire Scenarios ◽  
Local Weather

Abstract Forest fires are of common occurrence all over the world, causing the loss of precious natural resources. The propagation of forest fires depends on many factors, notably local weather conditions. Additionally, the local terrain such as mountainous areas also plays an important role. For instance, forest fires may propagate from mountain ridges to ridges due to locally strong wind by means of firebrands and hot air flows. While much is known cm the methodologies on the forest fire control, they are largely empirical and may not be totally effective. Therefore, scientific studies based on fundamental physical understanding of the underlying phenomena are needed to provide definitive data on cause-effect relationships in various forest fire scenarios, so that the collective database can be used to suggest control strategies and preventive measures for forest fires. The present study is motivated by this approach, and specifically focuses on the phenomena of rapid forest-fire propagation from mountain slqpes to other similar mountain slopes in the direction of the wind. The study deals with both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations by the use of a CFD-based fire field model.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Libonati ◽  
J. M. C. Pereira ◽  
C. C. Da Camara ◽  
L. F. Peres ◽  
D. Oom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
First Century ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
In Fire

AbstractBiomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003–2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

scholarly journals Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Lehtonen ◽  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
M. Kämäräinen ◽  
H. Peltola ◽  
H. Gregow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

scholarly journals Classification of Active Fires and Weather Conditions in the Lower Amur River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 3204
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Hayasaka ◽  
Galina V. Sokolova ◽  
Andrey Ostroukhov ◽  
Daisuke Naito
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Weather Condition ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Amur River Basin ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Amur River ◽  
Active Fire

Most wildland fires in boreal forests occur during summer, but major fires in the lower Amur River Basin of the southern Khabarovsk Krai (SKK) mainly occur in spring. To reduce active fires in the SKK, we carried out daily analysis of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) hotspot (HS) data and various weather charts. HS data of 17 years from 2003 were used to identify the average seasonal fire occurrence. Active fire-periods were extracted by considering the number of daily HSs and their continuity. Weather charts, temperature maps, and wind maps during the top 12 active fire-periods were examined to clarify each fire weather condition. Analysis results showed that there were four active fire-periods that occurred in April, May, July, and October. Weather charts during the top active fire-periods showed active fires in April and October occurred under strong wind conditions (these wind velocities were over 30 km h−1) related to low-pressure systems. The very active summer fire at the end of June 2012 occurred related to warm air mass advection promoted by large westerly meandering. We showed clear fire weather conditions in the SKK from March to October. If a proper fire weather forecast is developed based on our results, more efficient and timely firefighting can be carried out.

scholarly journals Weather conditions and warm air masses during active fire-periods in boreal forests

Polar Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 100472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Hayasaka ◽  
Koji Yamazaki ◽  
Daisuke Naito
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Active Fire

scholarly journals Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2591-2601 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. Mäkelä ◽  
M. Laapas ◽  
A. Venäläinen
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Abstract. Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD) model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June–August), the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908–2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

A Synoptic Climatology for Forest-Fires in the NE US and Future Implications From GCM Simulations

1994 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 217 ◽  
Author(s):  
ES Takle ◽  
DJ Bramer ◽  
WE Heilman ◽  
MR Thompson
Keyword(s):  
West Virginia ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Drying Conditions

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns labeled extended-high, back-of-high, and pre-high were the most frequently occurring patterns that accompany forest fires in West Virginia and the nearby four-stare region. Of these, back-of-high accounted for a disproportionately large amount of fire-related damage. Examination of evaporation acid precipitation data showed that these three patterns and high-to-the-south patterns ail led to drying conditions and all other patterns led to moistening conditions. Surface-pressure fields generated by the Canadian Climate Centre global circulation model for simulations of the present (1xCO2) climate and 2xCO2 climate were studied to determine whether forest-fire potential would change under increased atmospheric CO2. The analysis showed a tendency for increased frequency of drying in the NE US, but the results were not statistically significant.

scholarly journals Automated location of active fire perimeters in aerial infrared imaging using unsupervised edge detectors

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 241 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Valero ◽  
O. Rios ◽  
E. Pastor ◽  
E. Planas
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Infrared Imaging ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Edge Detectors ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Manual Tasks

A variety of remote sensing techniques have been applied to forest fires. However, there is at present no system capable of monitoring an active fire precisely in a totally automated manner. Spaceborne sensors show too coarse spatio-temporal resolutions and all previous studies that extracted fire properties from infrared aerial imagery incorporated manual tasks within the image processing workflow. As a contribution to this topic, this paper presents an algorithm to automatically locate the fuel burning interface of an active wildfire in georeferenced aerial thermal infrared (TIR) imagery. An unsupervised edge detector, built upon the Canny method, was accompanied by the necessary modules for the extraction of line coordinates and the location of the total burned perimeter. The system was validated in different scenarios ranging from laboratory tests to large-scale experimental burns performed under extreme weather conditions. Output accuracy was computed through three common similarity indices and proved acceptable. Computing times were below 1 s per image on average. The produced information was used to measure the temporal evolution of the fire perimeter and automatically generate rate of spread (ROS) fields. Information products were easily exported to standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS), such as GoogleEarth and QGIS. Therefore, this work contributes towards the development of an affordable and totally automated system for operational wildfire surveillance.

New method to detect and quantify weather persistence associated with hydro-climatic extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Jascha Lehmann ◽  
Bijan Fallah ◽  
Fred Hattermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
New Method ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Height Fields

<p>Changes in weather persistence are of particular concern in the context of climate change as periods of longer persistence can reinforce weather extremes. In our study we apply structural image recognition methods to global ERA5 reanalysis data to identify when, where and how long isolines of atmospheric geopotential height fields run in similar tracks. We identify regions and episodes around the world in which, retrospectively, unusually long-lasting weather patterns repeatedly occurred. Concerning the temperature and precipitation meteorological fields, we derive a connection between the occurrence of weather persistence and hydro-climatic extreme events.</p><p>Based on our new method we find that weather persistence has been particularly increasing in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in summer confirming earlier studies. Here, highly populated regions like Central Europe have experienced long-term increases in persistent weather conditions of up to 4-5% between 1981 and 2019 amplifying the risk of prolonged heat waves and droughts. Further, we show that climate models tend to have difficulties in capturing the dynamics of weather persistence and thus may severely underestimate the frequency and magnitude of future extremes events in their climate projections.</p>

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