scholarly journals Letter to the Editor Regarding Nogueira et al “Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal”

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuno Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Letter To The Editor

N/a.

scholarly journals Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo Jorge Nogueira ◽  
Miguel De Araújo Nobre ◽  
Paulo Jorge Nicola ◽  
Cristina Furtado ◽  
António Vaz Carneiro
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Access To Healthcare ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Public Data

Introduction: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-causes mortality during the early COVID-19pandemic period.Material and Methods: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period.Results: Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).Discussion: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals.Conclusion: The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.

scholarly journals Excess mortality among the elderly in 12 European countries, February and March 2012

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Mazick ◽  
B Gergonne ◽  
J Nielsen ◽  
F Wuillaume ◽  
M J Virtanen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
European Countries ◽  
H3n2 Virus ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Cold Snap ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

In February and March 2012, excess deaths among the elderly have been observed in 12 European countries that carry out weekly monitoring of all-cause mortality. These preliminary data indicate that the impact of influenza in Europe differs from the recent pandemic and post-pandemic seasons. The current excess mortality among the elderly may be related to the return of influenza A(H3N2) virus, potentially with added effects of a cold snap.

scholarly journals Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Aden governorate, Yemen

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e004564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilie S Koum Besson ◽  
Andy Norris ◽  
Abdulla S Bin Ghouth ◽  
Terri Freemantle ◽  
Mervat Alhaffar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Area ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Burial Rates

BackgroundThe burden of COVID-19 in low-income and conflict-affected countries remains unclear, largely reflecting low testing rates. In parts of Yemen, reports indicated a peak in hospital admissions and burials during May–June 2020. To estimate excess mortality during the epidemic period, we quantified activity across all identifiable cemeteries within Aden governorate (population approximately 1 million) by analysing very high-resolution satellite imagery and compared estimates to Civil Registry office records.MethodsAfter identifying active cemeteries through remote and ground information, we applied geospatial analysis techniques to manually identify new grave plots and measure changes in burial surface area over a period from July 2016 to September 2020. After imputing missing grave counts using surface area data, we used alternative approaches, including simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model, to predict both actual and counterfactual (no epidemic) burial rates by cemetery and across the governorate during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality (from 1 April 2020) and thereby compute excess burials. We also analysed death notifications to the Civil Registry office over the same period.ResultsWe collected 78 observations from 11 cemeteries. In all but one, a peak in daily burial rates was evident from April to July 2020. Interpolation and mixed model methods estimated ≈1500 excess burials up to 6 July, and 2120 up to 19 September, corresponding to a peak weekly increase of 230% from the counterfactual. Satellite imagery estimates were generally lower than Civil Registry data, which indicated a peak 1823 deaths in May alone. However, both sources suggested the epidemic had waned by September 2020.DiscussionTo our knowledge, this is the first instance of satellite imagery being used for population mortality estimation. Findings suggest a substantial, under-ascertained impact of COVID-19 in this urban Yemeni governorate and are broadly in line with previous mathematical modelling predictions, though our method cannot distinguish direct from indirect virus deaths. Satellite imagery burial analysis appears a promising novel approach for monitoring epidemics and other crisis impacts, particularly where ground data are difficult to collect.

scholarly journals Higher all-cause mortality in children during autumn 2009 compared with the three previous years: pooled results from eight European countries

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Mazick ◽  
B Gergonne ◽  
F Wuillaume ◽  
K Danis ◽  
A Vantarakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
European Countries ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
2009 Influenza Pandemic

The paper describes weekly fluctuations of all-cause mortality observed in eight European countries during the period between week 27 and 51, 2009, in comparison with three previous years. Our preliminary data show that the mortality reported during the 2009 influenza pandemic did not reach levels normally seen during seasonal influenza epidemics. However, there was a cumulative excess mortality of 77 cases (1 per 100,000 population) in 5-14-year-olds, and possibly also among 0-4-year-olds.

Letter to the Editor Regarding “Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus and Parkinsonism: Preliminary Data on Neurosurgical and Neurological Treatment”

2020 ◽  
Vol 140 ◽  
pp. 434-435
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Raudino ◽  
Giuseppe Emmanuele Umana ◽  
Santino Ottavio Tomasi ◽  
Stefano Priola ◽  
Gaspare Francesco Montemagno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus ◽  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Normal Pressure ◽  
Letter To The Editor

scholarly journals Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 255
Author(s):  
Mihaly Koltai ◽  
Abdihamid Warsame ◽  
Farah Bashiir ◽  
Terri Freemantle ◽  
Chris Reeve ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Correlated Parameters ◽  
Excess Deaths

Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic’s death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteries in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction and other epidemiologic parameters of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. Methods: We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number (R0) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) up to August 2020. Results: Under the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu March-August 2020 were attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections, we arrived at median estimates of November-December 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.4-1.7) reflecting the slow and early rise and long plateau of excess deaths. The date of introduction, the amount of external seeding, the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the effectiveness of NPIs are correlated parameters and not separately identifiable in a narrow range from deaths data. Nevertheless, to obtain introduction dates no earlier than November 2019 a higher population-wide IFR (≥0.7%) had to be assumed than obtained by applying age-specific IFRs from high-income countries to Somalia’s age structure. Conclusions: Model fitting of excess mortality data across a range of plausible values of the IFR and the amount of external seeding suggests an early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia in November-December 2019. Transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was estimated to be lower than in European settings. Alternatively, there was another, unidentified source of sustained excess mortality in Mogadishu from March to August 2020.

scholarly journals Insights Into Excess Mortality During the First Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic From a Rural, Demographic Surveillance Site in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Manzoor Ahmed Hanifi ◽  
Sayed Saidul Alam ◽  
Sanjida Siddiqua Shuma ◽  
Daniel D. Reidpath
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
False Result ◽  
The Government ◽  
Excess Deaths

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally, and the government of each affected country is publishing the number of deaths every day. This official figure is an underestimate as it excludes anybody who did not die in a hospital, who did not test positive, who had a false result, or those who recovered on their own without a test.Objective: This study aimed to measure the community level excess mortality using health and demographic surveillance in a rural area of Bangladesh.Method: The study was conducted in Matlab, in a rural area of Bangladesh, with a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) covering a population of 239,030 individuals living in 54,823 households in 142 villages. We examined the mortality in January-April from 2015 to 2020 and compared the mortality in 2020 with the historical trend of 2015–2019. Between 2015 and 2020, we followed 276,868 people until migration or death, whichever occurred first. We analyzed mortality using crude mortality rate ratio (MRR) and adjusted MRR (aMRR) from a Cox proportional hazard model. Mortality was analyzed according to age, sex, and period.Results: During follow-up, 3,197 people died. The mortality rate per 1,000 person-years increased from 10 in 2019 to 12 in 2020. Excess mortality was observed among the elderly population (aged 65 years and above). The elderly mortality rate per 1,000 person-years increased from 80 in 2019 to 110 in 2020, and the aMRR was 1.40 (95% CI: 1.19–1.64). Although an increasing tendency in mortality was observed between 2015 and 2019, it was statistically insignificant.Conclusions: The study reported a 28% increase in excess deaths among the elderly population during the first months of the pandemic. This all-cause mortality estimation at the community level will urge policymakers, public health professionals, and researchers to further investigate the causes of death and the underlying reasons for excess deaths in the older age-group.

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