scholarly journals Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo Jorge Nogueira ◽  
Miguel De Araújo Nobre ◽  
Paulo Jorge Nicola ◽  
Cristina Furtado ◽  
António Vaz Carneiro

Introduction: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-causes mortality during the early COVID-19pandemic period.Material and Methods: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period.Results: Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).Discussion: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals.Conclusion: The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 450
Author(s):  
Paulo Jorge Nogueira ◽  
Miguel De Araújo Nobre ◽  
Paulo Jorge Nicola ◽  
Cristina Furtado ◽  
António Vaz Carneiro

Article published with errors: https://www.actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928On page 376, in Abstract, paragraph Results, where it reads: ”Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).”It should read: “An excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths was observed. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).”On page 376, in Abstract, paragraph Conclusion, where it reads: ”The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3 to 5 fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.”It should read: “Despite the inherent uncertainty, the excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.”On page 376, in Resumo, paragraph Conclusão, where it reads: “Da análise dos resultados é possível concluir que o excesso de mortalidade ocorrido entre 1 de março e 22 de abril foi 3 a 5 vezes superior ao explicado pelas mortes por COVID-19 reportadas oficialmente.”It should read: “Apesar da incerteza inerente, da análise dos resultados é possível concluir que o excesso de mortalidade ocorrido entre 1 de março e 22 de abril poderá ter sido 3,5 a 5 vezes superior ao explicado pelas mortes por COVID-19 reportadas oficialmente.”On page 377, last line of the first paragraph, where it reads: “If the lockdown had some protective effect on overall mortality, like summer holiday months seem to have, these effects may be observed some, if not all, age groups.”It should read: “If the lockdown had some protective effect on overall mortality, like summer holiday months seem to have, these effects may be observed in all age groups.”On page 377, section Results, third paragraph, last sentence where it reads: “Mortality in the younger age groups was, on average, below the proposed baselines, as hypothesized.”It should read: “Mortality in the younger age groups was, on average, lower than the proposed baselines as theorized.”On page 382, section Conclusion, last sentence, where it reads: “Overall, these results point towards an excess mortality that is associated with and that is 3 to 5-fold higher than the official COVID-19 mortality.” It should read: “Overall, these results point towards an excess mortality that is associated with and that could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than the official COVID-19 mortality.” Artigo publicado com erros: https://www.actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928Na página 376, no Abstract, parágrafo Results, onde se lê: “Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).”Deverá ler-se: “An excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths was observed. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).”Na página 376, no Abstract, parágrafo Conclusion, onde se lê: “The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3 to 5 fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths."Deverá ler-se: “Despite the inherent uncertainty, the excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.”Na página 376, no Resumo, parágrafo Conclusão, onde se lê: “Da análise dos resultados é possível concluir que o excesso de mortalidade ocorrido entre 1 de março e 22 de abril foi 3 a 5 vezes superior ao explicado pelas mortes por COVID-19 reportadas oficialmente.”Deverá ler-se: “Apesar da incerteza inerente, da análise dos resultados é possível concluir que o excesso de mortalidade ocorrido entre 1 de março e 22 de abril poderá ter sido 3,5 a 5 vezes superior ao explicado pelas mortes por COVID-19 reportadas oficialmente.”Na página 377, na última linha do primeiro parágrafo, onde se lê: “If the lockdown had some protective effect on overall mortality, like summer holiday months seem to have, these effects may be observed some, if not all, age groups.”Deverá ler-se: “If the lockdown had some protective effect onoverall mortality, like summer holiday months seem to have, these effects may be observed in all age groups.”Na página 377, secção Resultados, terceiro parágrafo última frase, onde se lê: “Mortality in the younger age groups was, on average, below the proposed baselines, as hypothesized.”Deverá ler-se: “Mortality in the younger age groups was, on average, lower than the proposed baselines as theorized.”Na página 382, secção Conclusion, última frase, onde se lê: “Overall, these results point towards an excess mortality that is associated with and that is 3 to 5-fold higher than the official COVID-19 mortality.”Deverá ler-se: “Overall, these results point towards an excess mortality that is associated with and that could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than the official COVID-19 mortality.”


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Postill ◽  
Regan Murray ◽  
Andrew S Wilton ◽  
Richard A Wells ◽  
Renee Sirbu ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Early estimates of excess mortality are crucial for understanding the impact of COVID-19. However, there is a lag of several months in the reporting of vital statistics mortality data for many jurisdictions. In Ontario, a Canadian province, certification by a coroner is required before cremation can occur, creating timely mortality data that encompasses the majority of deaths within the province. OBJECTIVE Our objectives were to (1) validate the ability of cremation data in permitting real-time estimation of excess all-cause mortality, interim of vital statistics data, and (2) describe the patterns of excess mortality. METHODS Cremation records from January 2020 until April 2021 were compared to the historical records from 2017-2019, grouped according to week, age, sex, and COVID-19 status. Cremation data were compared to Ontario’s provisional vital statistics mortality data released by Statistics Canada. The 2020 and 2021 records were then compared to previous years to determine whether there was excess mortality and if so, which age groups had the greatest number of excess deaths during the COVID Pandemic, and whether deaths attributed to COVID-19 account for the entirety of the excess mortality. RESULTS Between 2017-2019, cremations were performed for 67.4% (95% CI: 67.3–67.5%) of deaths; the proportion of cremated deaths remained stable throughout 2020, establishing that the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly alter cremation practices, even within age and sex categories. During the first wave (from April to June 2020), cremation records detected a 16.9% increase (95% CI: 14.6–19.3%) in mortality. The accuracy of this excess mortality estimation was later confirmed by vital statistics data. CONCLUSIONS The stability in the percent of Ontarians cremated and the completion of cremation data several months before vital statistics data, enables accurate estimation of all-causes mortality in near real-time with cremation data. These findings demonstrate the utility of cremation data to provide timely mortality information during public health emergencies.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Octavio Nicolas Bramajo ◽  
María Florencia Bathory

AbstractThe following paper presents temporary estimations of CFR (the ratio between deaths and infected positive cases) attributed to COVID-19 for two provinces in Argentina (Jujuy and Buenos Aires Province), using public data provided by the Argentine Ministry of Health. In order to make comparisons between jurisdictions, we applied a series of exploratory measures (which resulted in excluding many other jurisdictions from the comparison), and later on the Kitagawa decomposition procedure, trying to separate rate (“net” fatality) and structure components (age-attributable effects) from CFR estimations in those provinces. After the decomposition we can observe that between almost non existant differences on average, the magnitude of structure and net rate effects tend to go into different directions across age groups, indicating some premature mortality in Buenos Aires and an excess net CFR in Jujuy for older age-groups


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anu Kohli ◽  
Neha Tiwari

This research paper analyses factors that impact entrepreneurial intention among graduate and postgraduate students enrolled in professional courses at government and private institutes in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The objective of this study is to analyze whether the student’s academic background, demographic profile and family background impact various factors that affect entrepreneurial intention. The study was conducted during 2015-16 on a sample of 460 student respondents across various cities of Uttar Pradesh.The results of the analysis indicate that students of male gender, belonging to higher income, in older age groups, having work experience, enrolled in government institutes, belonging to business background and enrolled at postgraduate level are more likely to consider entrepreneurship as a more attractive career option, perceive that it is easier to start and do business, have more positive perception about family and societal support they receive in entrepreneurial career choice, are more open to risks and are more confident about their entrepreneurial skills and knowledge . The students having work experience, enrolled in government institutes, and belonging to business background are more likely to find availability of capital as a constraint in entrepreneurial career. The students belonging to older age groups, having work experience and enrolled in government institutes are more likely to consider availability of land/premise and resources as a constraint in entrepreneurial choice. The findings of this study will be instrumental in understanding and in designing policy imperatives for promoting entrepreneurship in the state.Key Words: Entrepreneurial intention, Students, Demographic factors, Family background, Educational background.


Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Kristoffer Rypdal ◽  
Ola Løvsletten ◽  
Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye ◽  
Elinor Ytterstad ◽  
...  

We estimate the weekly excess all-cause mortality in Norway and Sweden, the years of life lost (YLL) attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and the significance of mortality displacement. We computed the expected mortality by taking into account the declining trend and the seasonality in mortality in the two countries over the past 20 years. From the excess mortality in Sweden in 2019/20, we estimated the YLL attributed to COVID-19 using the life expectancy in different age groups. We adjusted this estimate for possible displacement using an auto-regressive model for the year-to-year variations in excess mortality. We found that excess all-cause mortality over the epidemic year, July 2019 to July 2020, was 517 (95%CI = (12, 1074)) in Norway and 4329 [3331, 5325] in Sweden. There were 255 COVID-19 related deaths reported in Norway, and 5741 in Sweden, that year. During the epidemic period of 11 March–11 November, there were 6247 reported COVID-19 deaths and 5517 (4701, 6330) excess deaths in Sweden. We estimated that the number of YLL attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden was 45,850 [13,915, 80,276] without adjusting for mortality displacement and 43,073 (12,160, 85,451) after adjusting for the displacement accounted for by the auto-regressive model. In conclusion, we find good agreement between officially recorded COVID-19 related deaths and all-cause excess deaths in both countries during the first epidemic wave and no significant mortality displacement that can explain those deaths.


1977 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Elias

SUMMARYThree hundred and fifty-seven sera selected at random from hospital patients of all ages were examined for rotavirus antibodies using indirect immunofluorescence (FA) and complement fixation tests (CFT). Three hundred and fourteen of these were also tested for neutralizing antibodies to human rotavirus. Sera from patients admitted with a diagnosis of acute gastroenteritis were excluded from this survey.FA antibodies were found in newborn infants but fell to undetectable titres at 3 months. The highest titres were found in children between the ages of one and three years. In older age groups, the modal titre fell gradually with increasing age until, in sera from those above 70 years of age, FA antibodies were almost undetectable. The same pattern was observed with neutralizing antibodies. A high modal titre of CF antibodies was only found in sera from those aged one to three years.


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