scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and the Stock Market Returns in Pakistan

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (36) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zaheer ALAM ◽  
Kashif RASHID
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of Interest Rates Volatility and Stock Returns in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-102
Author(s):  
Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme ◽  
Emmanuel Sonyo ◽  
Godwin Ahiase
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The study utilized time series analysis models and employed the Johansen’s cointegration procedure and the vector error correction model to examine the short-run and long-run dynamics of the relationship between interest rates and stock market returns. The results of this study show that contrary to popular evidence from extant research, interest rate changes positively and significantly affect stock market returns in the long run and the deviation from the long-run equilibrium is corrected each period following a shock to the stock market in the short run. The positive linkages between interest rate changes and stock market outturns may be explained by the relative strength of banking stocks on the Ghana Stock Exchange. The analysis shows that as the long-run equilibrium is approached, the deviations in the short term decrease significantly.

scholarly journals A Time Series Analysis of the Nexus Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-91
Author(s):  
Amassoma Ditimi ◽  
Bolarinwa Ifeoluwa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Government

AbstractSince macroeconomic fundamentals have been found to play a vital role for changes in the economy of a country. Consequently, the onus is on the appropriate regulatory authorities to take measures in making amendments in these policies to put the economy on the right development track. The aim of this study is to use time series analysis to empirically showcase the nexus between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock prices in Nigeria. The method used for this study was the Co-integration test and the EGARCH technique to estimate the possible influence of the selected macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices. Volatility was captured by using quarterly data and estimated using GARCH (1,1) respectively. The study found there is a positive relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock prices in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommends that the Federal authority should put in place policy measures that will enable the exchange rate to be relatively stabilized. This is because empirical evidence from studies has shown that exchange rate affects stock market prices. In addition, the government authority should ensure an enabling environment that would build the mindset of institutional investors in the Nigerian stock market due to the existence of information asymmetry problems among potential investors.

Globalization and Stock Market Returns

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1850082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swee Sum Lam ◽  
William Wee-Lian Ang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Global Market ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Relationship

With increasing globalization, to what extent do stock market returns reflect global or domestic risk factors? We find a significant relationship between stock market returns and the global market risk factor and macroeconomic factors respectively. In particular, global factors offer four times more explanatory power than domestic factors for developed market stock returns. Yet domestic factors are as important as global ones in emerging economies. Our method allows for the proxies of the state variables to be endogenously determined. The relationship between macroeconomy and stock market returns is robust after accounting for the market factor, firm size and book-to-market characteristics.

scholarly journals Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market Returns For Four Emerging Economies: Brazil, Russia, India, And China

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Gay, Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
India And China

The relationship between share prices and macroeconomic variables is well documented for the United States and other major economies. However, what is the relationship between share prices and economic activity in emerging economies? The goal of this study is to investigate the time-series relationship between stock market index prices and the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate and oil price for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. Although no significant relationship was found between respective exchange rate and oil price on the stock market index prices of either BRIC country, this may be due to the influence other domestic and international macroeconomic factors on stock market returns, warranting further research. Also, there was no significant relationship found between present and past stock market returns, suggesting the markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China exhibit the weak-form of market efficiency.

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