scholarly journals Risk analysis and mitigation on the impact of the development of Songyuan Irrigation area on the ecology of Lake Chagan

2014 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
SUN Guangyou ◽  
◽  
TIAN Wei ◽  
JIA Zhiguo ◽  
WANG Haixia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Irrigation Area ◽  
Lake Chagan ◽  
The Impact

Designing Risk Qualitative Assessment on Fiber Optic Instalation Project in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Pratami
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fiber Optic ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Quality And Safety ◽  
Project Implementation ◽  
Cost Impact ◽  
Implementation Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Cost

A project always has risks that can lead to project failure. In the project, a risk analysis is required to provide an evaluation for the project to proceed as planned. In the event of inadequate planning and ineffective control, it will result in irregularities identified as a risk to the project. This study aims to analyze the qualitative risk on Fiber Optic Installaion project in Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia. In addition, risk assessment is undertaken on project implementation. Assessment of risk using the impact and probability to measure the impact of risk occurrence. The impacts are more detailed by classified by time impact, cost impact, quality impact, safety and security impact, proximity. The result is there are 36 risk that may occur and mostly risks are associaated by quality and safety&security impact.

scholarly journals The impact of a and b value uncertainty on loss estimation in the reinsurance industry

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Liechti ◽  
E. Ruettener ◽  
S. Eugster ◽  
R. Streit
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Average Annual Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loss Level

In the reinsurance industry different probabilistic models are currently used for seismic risk analysis. A credible loss estimation of the insured values depends on seismic hazard analysis and on the vulnerability functions of the given structures. Besides attenuation and local soil amplification, the earthquake occurrence model (often represented by the Gutenberg and Richter relation) is a key element in the analysis. However, earthquake catalogues are usually incomplete, the time of observation is too short and the data themselves contain errors. Therefore, a and b values can only be estimated with uncertainties. The knowledge of their variation provides a valuable input for earthquake risk analysis, because they allow the probability distribution of expected losses (expressed by Average Annual Loss (AAL)) to be modelled. The variations of a and b have a direct effect on the estimated exceeding probability and consequently on the calculated loss level. This effect is best illustrated by exceeding probability versus loss level and AAL versus magnitude graphs. The sensitivity of average annual losses due to different a to b ratios and magnitudes is obvious. The estimation of the variation of a and b and the quantification of the sensitivity of calculated losses are fundamental for optimal earthquake risk management. Ignoring these uncertainties means that risk management decisions neglect possible variations of the earthquake loss estimations.

scholarly journals ANALISIS RISIKO KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN BANTUL PROVINSI D.I. YOGYAKARTA

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
Annisa Mu'awanah Sukmawati ◽  
Puji Utomo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Quantitative Research Methods ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Very High

Bantul Regency is a district in Yogyakarta Province which has geographic, geological, hydrological, and demographic characteristics that are likely to cause drought. Drought event in Bantul Regency may have significant impacts on various aspects in line with the characteristics of drought impacts which are complex and cross-sectoral. This study addresses to analyze the level of risk of drought with observation units in 75 villages in the Bantul Regency. The risk analysis was carried out by comparing the time period of the 10 years, i.e. 2008 and 2018 to observe the shift of risk areas of drought in Bantul Regency. The research was conducted using quantitative research methods with quantitative descriptive and mapping analysis. The analysis steps are drought hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, and drought risk analysis. The analysis shows that during the last 10 years, Kabupaten Bantul has been experiencing an increasing number of villages classified as high risk of drought, both in urban and rural areas. In 2008 there were 15 villages (20%) and increased to 21 villages (28%) in 2018 that were classified as very very high level. Meanwhile, in 2008 there were 30 villages (40%) in 2008 and increased to 32 villages (42.7%) in 2018 that were classified as very high level. It caused by the increasing probability of drought as well as vulnerability. The analysis results can be used as input for stakeholders to take mitigation and anticipation actions to reduce the impact of drought based on the spatial characteristics of the risk areas.

General Approach to Risk Analysis

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Davorin Matanovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Impact

Broadly accepted methodology that is implemented in the oil industry when dealing with risks includes as the first step the identification of possible hazards. That is done by gathering information about degree of risk according to working procedures, processes, and individuals involved in the operation of the process. That is the first step in risk management, an iterative process that must lead to the use of proper measurements in the way of protecting people, facilities and environment. The analysis is done based on the combination of probability and severity of undesirable events, and the final consequences. Explanation of basic terms, their interdependence, dilemmas, and methods of risk analysis are introduced. Each method is shortly described with main anteriority and shortcomings. Differences between quantitative methods, qualitative methods, and hybrid methods (the combination of qualitative-quantitative or semi-quantitative methods) are elaborated. The impact, occurrence, and the consequences are at the end compared to risk acceptance criteria concept. The ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) framework is explained with some observation on the quality and acceptance in petroleum industry. Finally, the human impact on the risk and consequences is analyzed.

General Approach to Risk Analysis

2015 ◽  
pp. 1217-1236
Author(s):  
Davorin Matanovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Impact

Broadly accepted methodology that is implemented in the oil industry when dealing with risks includes as the first step the identification of possible hazards. That is done by gathering information about degree of risk according to working procedures, processes, and individuals involved in the operation of the process. That is the first step in risk management, an iterative process that must lead to the use of proper measurements in the way of protecting people, facilities and environment. The analysis is done based on the combination of probability and severity of undesirable events, and the final consequences. Explanation of basic terms, their interdependence, dilemmas, and methods of risk analysis are introduced. Each method is shortly described with main anteriority and shortcomings. Differences between quantitative methods, qualitative methods, and hybrid methods (the combination of qualitative-quantitative or semi-quantitative methods) are elaborated. The impact, occurrence, and the consequences are at the end compared to risk acceptance criteria concept. The ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) framework is explained with some observation on the quality and acceptance in petroleum industry. Finally, the human impact on the risk and consequences is analyzed.

Weibull Distributions Applied to Cost and Risk Analysis for Aero Engines

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. Pascovici ◽  
K. G. Kyprianidis ◽  
F. Colmenares ◽  
S. O. T. Ogaji ◽  
P. Pilidis
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Weibull Distributions ◽  
High Pressure Turbine ◽  
Aero Engines ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Parts

This paper presents the use of Weibull formulation to the life analysis of different parts of the engine in order to estimate the cost of maintenance, the direct operating costs (DOC) and net present cost (NPC) of future type turbofan engines. The Weibull distribution is often used in the field of life data analysis due to its flexibility—it can mimic the behavior of other statistical distributions such as the normal and the exponential. The developed economic model is composed of three modules: a lifing module, an economic module and a risk module. The lifing module estimates the life of the high pressure turbine blades through the analysis of creep and fatigue over a full working cycle of the engine. The value of life calculated by the lifing is then taken as the baseline distribution to calculate the life of other important modules of the engine using the Weibull approach. Then the lower of the values of life of all the distributions is taken as time between overhaul (TBO), and used into the economic module calculations. The economic module uses the TBO together with the cost of labour and the cost of the engine (needed to determine the cost of spare parts) to estimate the cost of maintenance and DOC of the engine. In the present work five Weibull distributions are used for five important sources of interruption of the working life of the engine: Combustor, Life Limited Parts (LLP), High Pressure Compressor (HPC), General breakdowns and High Pressure Turbine (HPT). The risk analysis done in this work shows the impact of the breakdown of different parts of the engine on the NPC and DOC, the importance that each module of the engine has in its life, and how the application of the Weibull theory can help us in the risk assessment of future aero engines. A detailed explanation of the economic model is done in two other works (Pascovici et. al. [6] and Pascovici et. al. [7]), so in this paper only a general overview is done.

New Onset Diabetes and Impaired Fasting Glucose After Liver Transplant: Risk Analysis and the Impact of Tacrolimus Dose

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamran Bagheri Lankarani ◽  
◽  
Ahad Eshraghian ◽  
Saman Nikeghbalian ◽  
Parisa Janghorban ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Liver Transplant ◽  
Impaired Fasting Glucose ◽  
Fasting Glucose ◽  
Onset Diabetes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tacrolimus Dose ◽  
New Onset
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