Predicting future climate and land use conditions for water resources in the Schuylkill River Watershed

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achira Amur
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Schuylkill River

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Impacts on Water Resources

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Nick Martin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Reference Conditions ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Lulc Change

Climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes will impact watershed-scale water resources. These systemic alterations will have interacting influences on water availability. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for water resource impact analysis from future systemic change is described and implemented to examine combined climate and LULC change impacts from 2011–2100 for a study site in west-central Texas. Internally, the PRA framework provides probabilistic simulation of reference and future conditions using weather generator and water balance models in series—one weather generator and water balance model for reference and one of each for future conditions. To quantify future conditions uncertainty, framework results are the magnitude of change in water availability, from the comparison of simulated reference and future conditions, and likelihoods for each change. Inherent advantages of the framework formulation for analyzing future risk are the explicit incorporation of reference conditions to avoid additional scenario-based analysis of reference conditions and climate change emissions scenarios. In the case study application, an increase in impervious area from economic development is the LULC change; it generates a 1.1 times increase in average water availability, relative to future climate trends, from increased runoff and decreased transpiration.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berenger Koffi ◽  
Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽  
Affoué Berthe Yao ◽  
Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽  
Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nibéhibé does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nibéhibé in the central-western part of Côte d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27° C; 2.58° C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.</p>

A framework for quantifying the impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Han River basin, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Tian ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Han River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Han River Basin

<p>As a link between the atmosphere and the earth’s surface, the hydrological cycle is impacted by both climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC). For most basins around the world, the co-variation of climate change and LUCC will continue in the future, which highlights the significance to explore the temporal-spatial distribution and variation mechanism of runoff and to improve our ability in water resources planning and management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a framework to examine the response of runoff to climate change and LUCC under different future scenarios. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and bias-corrected by the Daily bias correction (DBC) method, meanwhile, the future LUCC scenarios are predicted by the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model according to the integrated basin plans of future land use. Then, based on the baseline scenario S0 (meteorological data from 1966 to 2005 and current situation LUCC2010), the following three scenarios are set with different combinations of future climate land-use situations, i.e., S1: only climate change scenario; S2: only the LUCC scenario; S3: climate and LUCC co-variation scenario. Lastly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process and quantify the impacts of climate change and LUCC on the runoff yield. The proposed framework is applied to the Han River basin in China. Results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum, and minimum air temperature during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8℃, 1.6℃ in RCP4.5 while 3.7%, 2.5℃, 2.3℃ in RCP8.5, respectively; (2) from 2010 to 2050, the forest land and construction land in the Han River basin will have an increase of 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while that of farmland and grassland will have a decrease of 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively; (3) comparing with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the co-variation scenario possesses the largest uncertainty in runoff projection. Under the two concentration paths, there is a consistent upward change in future runoff (2021-2060) of the studied basin compared with that in the base period, furthermore, the increase rate in RCP4.5 (+5.10%) is higher than that in RCP8.5 (+2.67%). The results of this study provide a useful reference and help for water resources and land use management in the Han River basin.</p>

Response of hydrological processes to climate and land use changes in Hiso River watershed, Fukushima, Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilei Peng ◽  
Chunying Wang ◽  
Sadao Eguchi ◽  
Kanta Kuramochi ◽  
Masato Igura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Annual Water

<p>Hydrological processes at basin scale are driven by climate and land-use changes. Hiso River watershed (HRW) is within a radiocesium contaminated area caused by the disaster in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP). It’s urgently needed to make evaluations on how changes of climate and land-use bring impacts on hydrological processes, which control pollutants transport in watershed. This study applied a combination method of Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate future climatic and hydrologic variables. Future climate data was obtained from three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios of a single General Circulation Models (GCMs) in three future periods of 2030s, 2060s and 2090s (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099), with a baseline period (1980-2009). Furthermore, according to land-use change in HRW during 2013-2017, three land-use change scenarios under the three future climate scenarios were established. Results suggested that SDSM showed good capabilities in capturing daily maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation. The SWAT model presented good performances in simulating monthly and yearly streamflow. Results also suggested projected higher temperatures and lower rainfall led to decreased annual water yield and evapotranspiration (ET). The annual water yield and ET decreased in most seasons while had a slight increase in spring. RCP8.5 scenario always generated larger magnitudes for climatic variables and water balance components compared with other climate scenarios. Land-use changes had strong impact on surface runoff and groundwater flow. These findings could provide reference for decontamination and revitalization policy-making under complicated land use and climate change conditions.</p>

scholarly journals MIROC-INTEG1: A global bio-geochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Surface Model

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. Future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human land-use change can affect the climate system through bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG1 (MIROC INTEGrated terrestrial model version 1), an integrated model that combines the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land use models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the sub-models of MIROC-INTEG1, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify the various interactions between sub-models. MIROC-INTEG1 makes it possible to quantitatively evaluate the feedback processes or nexus between climate, water resources, crop production, land use, and ecosystem, and to assess the risks, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with future climate change and prospective mitigation and adaptation policies.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Risks of Groundwater Extraction in an Agricultural Landscape under Different Climate Projections

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 400
Author(s):  
Juan S. Acero Triana ◽  
Maria L. Chu ◽  
Jorge A. Guzman ◽  
Daniel N. Moriasi ◽  
Jean L. Steiner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Agricultural Landscape ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Conservation Practices ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Conservation Measures

Groundwater resources worldwide are being depleted at alarming rates since 1960 to support agriculture, industry, and domestic water demand. Water harvesting and the implementation of reduced application or more efficient irrigation technologies were identified as two of the most efficient practices to mitigate the declining patterns on groundwater resources. However, prior to implementing these practices, understanding how groundwater interacts with surface water and responds to natural and anthropogenic stressors is crucial. Integrated modeling tools that are able to exchange fluxes in both domains are needed to assess how conservation practices will affect our water resources under different projected climate and land use scenarios. This study aimed to evaluate the most likely impacts of current land management practices under the most severe projections of future climate and quantify the potential mitigation effects of three conservation scenarios on the water resources of the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed (FCREW) in western Oklahoma. The semicoupled SWAT-MODFLOW (SWATmf) model was used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the FCREW to a 50% reduction in the irrigation depths and the transition of 50% and 75% of croplands to rangelands under 32 distinct climate projections. Results showed that future climate can drive a reduction in the streamflow (−18%) and an increase to the depth of the water table (99%–120%) in the western part of the FCREW by the end of the century. The Fort Cobb Reservoir was expected to reduce its release after the mid-2060s to maintain its current target level. All the scenarios, aimed at decreasing groundwater extractions or implementing conservation measures, signaled a full recovery response in the groundwater levels 7–10 years after the year the conservation practices were implemented. The 50% reduction in the irrigation depths was found to elicit faster hydrologic systemic responses than the two that implemented conservation measures, which contravene tradition and would imply cessation of agricultural activities. This study can enable stakeholders to formulate timely adaptation and mitigating strategies to adopt to land use changes.

scholarly journals Uma Forma de Convivência com a Seca: Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Brígida - Pernambuco - Brasil (A Form of the Living with Drought: Brigida River Watershed-Pernambuco-Brasil)

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 724
Author(s):  
Alegnoberto Leite Fechine ◽  
Josiclêda Domiciano Galvíncio
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Northern Portion ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
Semi Arid

Mudanças no clima, provocada por aumento da temperatura, é uma realidade. Estudos recentes têm mostrado mudanças perceptíveis na temperatura, no regime de chuvas, nos recursos hídricos, no escoamento superficial e na agricultura; com consequências severas para as populações. Como água é mal distribuída e com a intensificação das secas a situação se agravará cada vez mais, chegando a um ponto de famílias inteiras migrarem para outras áreas. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste escopo é expor e analisar as diversas formas de convivências com a variabilidade do clima na bacia hidrográfica do rio Brígida.A área em análise possui clima semiárido e está localizada no Nordeste do Brasil, estado de Pernambuco. De acordo com o estudo a área mais vulnerável da bacia é a porção sul, onde o uso da terra se dá de forma desorganizada e despreparada. Já a porção norte é a menos vulnerável, pois, é mais propicia a receber maiores valores de precipitação. Sendo assim, a convivência com as mudanças do clima a exemplo: captação de água da chuva e a agroecologia são opções necessárias.A B S T R A C T - Changes in climate caused by increasing temperature, is a reality. Recent studies have shown noticeable changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, water resources, surface runoff and agriculture; with severe consequences for the populations. As water is poorly distributed and the intensification of droughts will worsen the situation increasingly, reaching a point of entire families migrate to other areas. Therefore, the aim of this scope is to expose and analyze the various forms of cohabitation with climate variability in the basin of river Bridget. The area in question has semi-arid climate and is located in the northeast of Brazil, Pernambuco state. According to the study the most vulnerable area of the basin is the southern portion, where the land use occurs in a disorganized and unprepared shape. Already the northern portion is less vulnerable because it is most facilitates receive larger amounts of precipitation. Thus, the interaction with the climate changes such: capturing rainwater and agroecology options are necessary. Keywords: coexistence, capture rainwater, semiarid. 

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