scholarly journals Evaluating the Risks of Groundwater Extraction in an Agricultural Landscape under Different Climate Projections

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 400
Author(s):  
Juan S. Acero Triana ◽  
Maria L. Chu ◽  
Jorge A. Guzman ◽  
Daniel N. Moriasi ◽  
Jean L. Steiner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Agricultural Landscape ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Conservation Practices ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Conservation Measures

Groundwater resources worldwide are being depleted at alarming rates since 1960 to support agriculture, industry, and domestic water demand. Water harvesting and the implementation of reduced application or more efficient irrigation technologies were identified as two of the most efficient practices to mitigate the declining patterns on groundwater resources. However, prior to implementing these practices, understanding how groundwater interacts with surface water and responds to natural and anthropogenic stressors is crucial. Integrated modeling tools that are able to exchange fluxes in both domains are needed to assess how conservation practices will affect our water resources under different projected climate and land use scenarios. This study aimed to evaluate the most likely impacts of current land management practices under the most severe projections of future climate and quantify the potential mitigation effects of three conservation scenarios on the water resources of the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed (FCREW) in western Oklahoma. The semicoupled SWAT-MODFLOW (SWATmf) model was used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the FCREW to a 50% reduction in the irrigation depths and the transition of 50% and 75% of croplands to rangelands under 32 distinct climate projections. Results showed that future climate can drive a reduction in the streamflow (−18%) and an increase to the depth of the water table (99%–120%) in the western part of the FCREW by the end of the century. The Fort Cobb Reservoir was expected to reduce its release after the mid-2060s to maintain its current target level. All the scenarios, aimed at decreasing groundwater extractions or implementing conservation measures, signaled a full recovery response in the groundwater levels 7–10 years after the year the conservation practices were implemented. The 50% reduction in the irrigation depths was found to elicit faster hydrologic systemic responses than the two that implemented conservation measures, which contravene tradition and would imply cessation of agricultural activities. This study can enable stakeholders to formulate timely adaptation and mitigating strategies to adopt to land use changes.

scholarly journals Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Integrated Modeling for Climate and Water Resources Scenarios: The Case of Lake Karla Over-Exploited Aquifer

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantelis Sidiropoulos ◽  
Georgios Tziatzios ◽  
Lampros Vasiliades ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos ◽  
Athanasios Loukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Tools

Groundwater quantity and quality degradation by agricultural practices is recorded as one of the most critical issues worldwide. This is explained by the fact that groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, since it is a source of natural enrichment for rivers, lakes, and wetlands and constitutes the main source of potable water. The need of aquifers simulation, taking into account water resources components at watershed level, is imperative for the choice of appropriate restoration management practices. An integrated water resources modeling approach, using hydrological modeling tools, is presented for assessing the nitrate fate and transport on an over-exploited aquifer with intensive and extensive agricultural activity under various operational strategies and future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change affects nitrates concentration in groundwater, which is likely to be increased due to the depletion of the groundwater table and the decrease of groundwater enrichment in the future water balance. Application of operational agricultural management practices with the construction and use of water storage infrastructure tend to compensate the groundwater resources degradation due to climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Impacts on Water Resources

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Nick Martin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Reference Conditions ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Lulc Change

Climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes will impact watershed-scale water resources. These systemic alterations will have interacting influences on water availability. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for water resource impact analysis from future systemic change is described and implemented to examine combined climate and LULC change impacts from 2011–2100 for a study site in west-central Texas. Internally, the PRA framework provides probabilistic simulation of reference and future conditions using weather generator and water balance models in series—one weather generator and water balance model for reference and one of each for future conditions. To quantify future conditions uncertainty, framework results are the magnitude of change in water availability, from the comparison of simulated reference and future conditions, and likelihoods for each change. Inherent advantages of the framework formulation for analyzing future risk are the explicit incorporation of reference conditions to avoid additional scenario-based analysis of reference conditions and climate change emissions scenarios. In the case study application, an increase in impervious area from economic development is the LULC change; it generates a 1.1 times increase in average water availability, relative to future climate trends, from increased runoff and decreased transpiration.

scholarly journals Then and Now: Understanding Change on an Agricultural Landscape

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Pardy
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Agricultural Landscape ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Reference Group ◽  
Surface Water Quality ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes ◽  
Phosphorus Pollution ◽  
Land Use And Management

Freshwater eutrophication typically driven by non-point source phosphorus pollution is one of the worlds’ most prevalent and vexing environmental problems with the Laurentian Great Lakes on the Canada – United States border. During 1975 – 1977, the Pollution from Land Use Activities Reference Group examined eleven agricultural watersheds in order to investigate the impacts of land use activities on surface water quality. This study examined how agricultural land use and management has transformed in two watersheds, Nissouri Creek and Big Creek. The goal of this study was to quantify the phosphorus mass balance change within the watersheds. During 2015 – 2019 land use and management practices survey data was collected. Results of this study showed Nissouri Creek is now depleting -2.19 kilograms of phosphorus per hectare of agricultural land, while Big Creek is still accumulating 4.77 kilograms of phosphorus per hectare of agricultural land. This study can guide efforts to limit the long-term losses of phosphorus in the Laurentian Great Lakes and elsewhere.

scholarly journals How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 3151-3171 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Gottschalk ◽  
J.U. Smith ◽  
M. Wattenbach ◽  
J. Bellarby ◽  
E. Stehfest ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soc Stocks ◽  
Soc Decomposition

Abstract. We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

scholarly journals Assessment of Air Bengkulu (Indonesia) watershed based on agroecosystem landscape quality and sustainable land use plan

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faiz Barchia ◽  
BAMBANG SULISTYO ◽  
KANANG S. HINDARTO ◽  
HERY SUHARTOYO
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Landscape ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Conservation Practices ◽  
Landscape Matrix ◽  
Land Quality ◽  
Agricultural Conservation ◽  
Landscape Quality ◽  
Land Use Plan

Abstract. Barchia MF, Sulistyo B, Hindarto KS, Suhartoyo H. 2020. Assessment of Air Bengkulu (Indonesia) watershed based on agroecosystem landscape quality and sustainable land use plan. Biodiversitas 21: 5422-5430. This study purposes to assess agro-ecosystem landscape based on land quality values and current land use and assess agro-ecosystem matrices with agricultural conservation practices in Air Bengkulu Watershed conducted from August to December 2019. Spatial analysis used some map and Landsat 8 OLI satellite imagery and ArcGIS version 10.1. The analysis depicted spatial distribution of soil and land quality, land uses, agricultural landscape matrices, and sustainable agro-ecosystems. The assessments revealed soil quality covered Air Bengkulu Watershed categorized moderate 33.1% to good 14.4% suitable for sustainable agroecosystems while in marginal quality 38.9% mostly lying on the upstream. This unique landscape formed a land quality prone to degradation because of intensive agriculture for oil palm covering 60% and coffee plantation about 17%. Actually, only about 61.1% of the Air Bengkulu Watershed is categorized as moderate to good quality matrix of sustainable agroecosystems. Improper agricultural cultivation with monoculture system without implemented conservation practices drove landscape filled with degradation landscapes. With sustainable agro-ecosystem scenarios implementing physical conservation terraces and restored with multi-purposes tree species such as candlenut, kapok tree, betel nut, durian, good quality of the landscape matrix of 82% Air Bengkulu Watershed.

A framework for quantifying the impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Han River basin, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Tian ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Han River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Han River Basin

<p>As a link between the atmosphere and the earth’s surface, the hydrological cycle is impacted by both climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC). For most basins around the world, the co-variation of climate change and LUCC will continue in the future, which highlights the significance to explore the temporal-spatial distribution and variation mechanism of runoff and to improve our ability in water resources planning and management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a framework to examine the response of runoff to climate change and LUCC under different future scenarios. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and bias-corrected by the Daily bias correction (DBC) method, meanwhile, the future LUCC scenarios are predicted by the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model according to the integrated basin plans of future land use. Then, based on the baseline scenario S0 (meteorological data from 1966 to 2005 and current situation LUCC2010), the following three scenarios are set with different combinations of future climate land-use situations, i.e., S1: only climate change scenario; S2: only the LUCC scenario; S3: climate and LUCC co-variation scenario. Lastly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process and quantify the impacts of climate change and LUCC on the runoff yield. The proposed framework is applied to the Han River basin in China. Results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum, and minimum air temperature during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8℃, 1.6℃ in RCP4.5 while 3.7%, 2.5℃, 2.3℃ in RCP8.5, respectively; (2) from 2010 to 2050, the forest land and construction land in the Han River basin will have an increase of 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while that of farmland and grassland will have a decrease of 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively; (3) comparing with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the co-variation scenario possesses the largest uncertainty in runoff projection. Under the two concentration paths, there is a consistent upward change in future runoff (2021-2060) of the studied basin compared with that in the base period, furthermore, the increase rate in RCP4.5 (+5.10%) is higher than that in RCP8.5 (+2.67%). The results of this study provide a useful reference and help for water resources and land use management in the Han River basin.</p>

scholarly journals Multi-Scale Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes in Northern Morocco

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Milewski ◽  
Wondwosen M. Seyoum ◽  
Racha Elkadiri ◽  
Michael Durham
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
The Impact

Natural and human-induced impacts on water resources across the globe continue to negatively impact water resources. Characterizing the hydrologic sensitivity to climatic and anthropogenic changes is problematic given the lack of monitoring networks and global-scale model uncertainties. This study presents an integrated methodology combining satellite remote sensing (e.g., GRACE, TRMM), hydrologic modeling (e.g., SWAT), and climate projections (IPCC AR5), to evaluate the impact of climatic and man-made changes on groundwater and surface water resources. The approach was carried out on two scales: regional (Morocco) and watershed (Souss Basin, Morocco) to capture the recent climatic changes in precipitation and total water storage, examine current and projected impacts on total water resources (surface and groundwater), and investigate the link between climate change and groundwater resources. Simulated (1979–2014) potential renewable groundwater resources obtained from SWAT are ~4.3 × 108 m3/yr. GRACE data (2002–2016) indicates a decline in total water storage anomaly of ~0.019m/yr., while precipitation remains relatively constant through the same time period (2002–2016), suggesting human interactions as the major underlying cause of depleting groundwater reserves. Results highlight the need for further conservation of diminishing groundwater resources and a more complete understanding of the links and impacts of climate change on groundwater resources.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document