General government deficit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit

Trends in the European Monetary Union. An Overview

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110161
Author(s):  
Papageorgiou Christos ◽  
Anastasiou Athanasios ◽  
Liargovas Panagiotis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
European Monetary Union ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Average Value ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Mean

Four indicators corresponding to the four targets of the European Monetary Union were calculated. The study showed that: (a) concerning the deviation of state’s general government deficit/surplus from 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), all member states had reached their target, with the exception of Cyprus, which was slightly under the target, (b) concerning the deviation of state’s general government debt from 60% of GDP, half of all European Union (EU) member states did not reach their targets, and there was a lot to be done, especially from the EU15 member states, (c) concerning the deviation of state’s inflation rate from the mean of the three states with best results of +1.5%, it was observed that the average value of EU28 member states had reached the final target, mainly due to the performances of the EU15 member states, (d) and concerning the deviation of state’s interest rate from the mean of the three states with the best results of +2%, it was observed that the average value of EU28 member states had reached the final target.

scholarly journals Savings and investment equality does not prevail according to Keynesian definitions

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 97-105
Author(s):  
Tamás Bánfi
Keyword(s):  
Common Sense ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Government

Aside from the general government and the non-resident sector, textbooks on macroeconomics uniformly define the following correlation under the terms investment and saving: I = S. The I = S equality is naturally and legitimately interpreted by macroeconomic textbooks almost without exception as the equality between intended investments and intended savings, because the equality ‒ if we accept it ‒ is not only a definitive identity, but generally the outcome of market mechanisms that take time. Keynes’s first critic was Robertson who claimed that “his analysis corresponded to what common-sense proclaims (even to the simple-minded) to be the essence of the matter; namely, the power possessed by the public and by the monetary authority to alter the rates of income flow – the former by putting money into and out of store, the latter by putting it into and out of existence. Thus, in his definition, I = S + (A + B), in which A is new money and B is reactivated idle balances. ” Robertson's comment could have been addressed with a simple correction, and the tool used for funding the expansion of state (public) investments, i.e. the government deficit financed by the creation of new money, is a consistent element of the theoretical framework.

scholarly journals After COVID-19: Rethinking Fiscal Rules in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 276-276
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Economic Forecast ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
European Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit

Abstract Following the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe this spring and subsequent measures to contain the pandemic, the European Commission drastically revised its economic and fiscal forecasts. The Summer 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 8.7% in 2020. The coronavirus crisis is expected to push the general government deficit to about 8.5% of GDP this year. Even in an optimistic V-shaped recovery scenario with a GDP growth rate of 6.1% in 2021 due to the temporary nature of lockdown measures taken in 2020, the headline deficit is expected to decrease to about 3.5% of GDP. Furthermore, both the downturn and the rebound of economic activity are expected to be asymmetric across member states, exposing entrenched divergences. The recent outlook highlights the problem of pro-cyclical revisions of potential output and output gap estimates. Some economists warn that the current fiscal framework may lead to pro-cyclical and thus destabilising fiscal policies, a problem encountered in Southern Europe during the European sovereign debt crisis that has implications for the entire European Union. In order to avoid repeating past mistakes, the debate on how to reform European fiscal policy should be settled before the rules are re-enacted when the coronavirus crisis has passed.

scholarly journals General government deficit and public debt in EU member states

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 29-41
Author(s):  
Michał Wielechowski
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Eu

The aim of this article is the presentation and the attempt to analyse such phenomena as: an excessive general government deficit and public debt in EU Member States over the past 3 years. For the European Union the years 2008-2010 were the time when public finances of most member countries worsened dramatically. The average budget deficit in the EU increased during that period to a value of almost 7% compared to gross domestic product and public debt reached almost 80% of GDP. Referring the numbers to the principles of the budgetary policy in the Treaty on the European Union (the deficit should not exceed 3% in relation to GDP and public debt – 60% of GDP), the observance of budgetary discipline has been significantly violated. In consequence, the excessive deficit procedure has been initiated. in relation to almost all the countries of the EU, Its purpose was to force the member countries to take concrete actions to stabilize public finances. The economic crisis that began in the second half of 2007 in the United States of America which resulted in a significant deterioration of the finances of all the EU member countries might be regarded as the major source of violation of their budgetary discipline. The reactions of most governments TO the harmful effects caused by the financial crisis were to stimulate national economies and stem the decline of domestic demand. The higher level of public expenditures was simultaneously the cause of increased budget deficits,. To develop and present the problem of an excessive budget deficit and public debt in the EU countries some statistical methods were used and the data source statistics were mainly carried out by the European Commission and the European Statistical Office.

scholarly journals Government debt in Greece: An empirical analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
Gisele Mah ◽  
Itumeleng Mongale ◽  
Janine Mukuddem-Petersen ◽  
Mark Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Function Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit

Greek government debt has been increasing above the percentage stated in the growth and stability path from 112.9% in 2008 to 175.6% in 2013. This paper investigates the determinants of the general government debt in Greek by means of Vector Error Correction Model framework, Variance Decomposition and Generalized Impulse Response Function Analysis. The analysis showed a significant negative relationship between general government debt and government deficit, general government debt and inflation. Shocks to general government and inflation will cause general government debt to increase. Government deficit should be increased since there is gross capital formation included in its calculation which could be invested in income generating projects. The current account balance should be reduced by improving the net trade balance

scholarly journals Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (54) ◽  
pp. 101-109
Author(s):  
Jakub Rybacki
Keyword(s):  
Political Bias ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Excessive Deficit Procedure ◽  
Better Than

AbstractThe academic literature in the past has frequently highlighted that the European Commission (EC) tends to provide more accurate public finance forecasts compared with national governments, thanks to its neutrality. The recent conflicts regarding the excessive deficit procedure with Romania and Italy and rule of law with Hungary and Poland raises the question of whether such conclusions are still binding. Therefore, we analysed a panel of forecasts submitted by the national governments with an annual update of Convergence programmes and corresponding EC predictions. Our dataset contains predictions of the general government deficit, revenues and expenditures for EU27 economies and the United Kingdom in the years 2014–2019. First, the analysis shows no meaningful discrepancies between both estimates when the horizon is set at the current year. Forecasts for the next year have equal accuracy in the case of government revenues and expenditures. However, the EC performs worse in the case of the final deficit. Second, cross-country effects are present, but the accuracy is different mainly in the very small economies, that is, the Baltic countries, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg. Amongst the more populated states, the EC outperforms the Slovakian and Denmark governments but has worse performance than the Irish, Portuguese and Spanish governments. We also do not see evidence of any political bias in the forecasts.

scholarly journals From governmental accounting to national accounting: implications on the Portuguese central government deficit

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Antónia Jorge de Jesus ◽  
Susana Margarida Jorge
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Governmental Accounting ◽  
National Accounting ◽  
Government Sector ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

Based on the relevant differences between Governmental Accounting (GA/microeconomic perspective) and National Accounting (NA/macroeconomic perspective) this paper examines the main adjustments made in Portugal to the General Government Sector data required to convert Governmental Accounts into National Accounts. It also assesses the impact of those adjustments on the Central Government deficit, the largest share in the Portuguese public deficit.Following mostly a qualitative research methodology, the empirical study is based on interviews to officials preparing NA and on several documental sources. The purpose is to validate the major data adjustments from GA into NA regarding Central Government, while, in addition, assessing their impact using data from April 2008 Excessive Deficit Procedure notification, covering the 2004-2007 period. The main findings indicate that differences concerning the accounting basis are the most relevant and that the subsequent adjustments have a considerable impact on the Portuguese Central Government deficit. This research points therefore to the need for more convergence between GA and NA, namely with respect to the transactions recognition criteria in order to use a common accounting basis, and for a complete and coherent reporting information system in GA.

Domestic demand will drive Belgium’s GDP growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Government ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Government Deficit

Significance Belgium’s competitiveness has been undermined by the indexation of wages to inflation and its GDP growth has trailed that of the euro-area since 2015. However, a tax and economic reform package implemented since 2016 has contributed to a pickup in growth in 2017-18. Impacts Business investment is expected to be the fastest-growing component of GDP growth. The National Bank of Belgium estimates that the tax reform will add 1.2% to GDP and allow the creation of more than 50,000 jobs in 2016-20. The reform package is mostly self-financed, so the general government deficit is expected to stay around 1.0-1.5% of GDP in 2018-19. The 2019 elections could derail the reform process if forming a coalition proves difficult or if parties' policy priorities diverge.

scholarly journals Development of Military Spending Determinants in Baltic Countries—Empirical Analysis

Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Jakub Odehnal ◽  
Jiří Neubauer ◽  
Lukáš Dyčka ◽  
Tereza Ambler
Keyword(s):  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Military

The article presents the use of the ARDL model to identify military expenditure determinants of the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). Factors influencing military expenditure include the variables characterizing the economic environment of the analyzed countries (GDP per Capita, Government Deficit/Surplus, General Government Gross Debt, Inflation), and the security environment measured by Risk of Foreign Pressures, Risk of Cross-border Conflict, and Democratic Accountability. General conclusions about the analysis of relationships between the military expenditure level and selected economics and security determinants were confirmed in the cases of Government Deficit/Surplus, GDP per Capita and Inflation. The results, therefore, indicate that the military expenditure of Estonia and Lithuania depended on the state budget deficit where military expenditure tended to go down in relation to an increasing deficit within the assessed period. As far as Estonia is concerned, the findings about relationship between the economic position and military expenditure was validated as an increasing economic performance tended to increase military expenditure.

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