Forecasting Induced Earthquake Hazard Using a Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin L. Rubinstein ◽  
Andrew J. Barbour ◽  
Jack H. Norbeck
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Induced Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Nucleation ◽  
Nucleation Model ◽  
Central United States ◽  
The U.S

Abstract In response to the dramatic increase in earthquake rates in the central United States, the U.S Geological Survey began releasing 1 yr earthquake hazard models for induced earthquakes in 2016. Although these models have been shown to accurately forecast earthquake hazard, they rely purely on earthquake statistics because there was no precedent for forecasting induced earthquakes based upon wastewater injection data. Since the publication of these hazard models, multiple physics-based methods have been proposed to forecast earthquake rates using injection data. Here, we use one of these methods to generate earthquake hazard forecasts. Our earthquake hazard forecasts are more accurate than statistics-based hazard forecasts. These results imply that fluid injection data, where and when available, and the physical implications of fluid injection should be included in future induced earthquake hazard forecasts.

Magnitude thresholds and spatial footprints of damage from induced earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 1995-2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bridger W Baird ◽  
Abbie B Liel ◽  
Robert E Chase
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Earthquake Epicenter ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Injection Wells ◽  
Building Models ◽  
Central United States ◽  
First Onset ◽  
Moderate Magnitude

The rise in the number of anthropogenic small- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the central United States raises questions about the damageability of the built environment in such events. This study examines the performance of modern light-frame wood buildings, including single, multifamily, and commercial constructions, in earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 3–6, using dynamic analysis of building models subjected to ground motions recorded in past induced events in North America. We focus on first onset of damage, for example, wallboard or wallpaper cracking, and nails popping out. The results show that earthquakes with magnitudes less than 4–4.25 are unlikely to cause damage to modern constructions. However, moderate-magnitude events can cause damage over a wide geographic area (more than 30 mi from the earthquake epicenter, or 40 or more miles from a wastewater injection well). These results can be used to suggest setback distances between injection wells and certain neighborhoods or facilities, and magnitude thresholds for post-earthquake inspections.

scholarly journals Earthquake Shaking Hazard Estimates and Exposure Changes in the Conterminous United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. S201-S220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kishor S. Jaiswal ◽  
Mark D. Petersen ◽  
Ken Rukstales ◽  
William S. Leith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Earthquake Hazards ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motions ◽  
The U.S

A large portion of the population of the United States lives in areas vulnerable to earthquake hazards. This investigation aims to quantify population and infrastructure exposure in places within the conterminous United States that are subjected to varying levels of earthquake ground motions by systematically analyzing the last four cycles of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (published in 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014). Using the 2013 LandScan data, we estimate the number of people who are exposed to potentially damaging ground motions (peak ground accelerations at or above 0.1 g). At least 28 million (~9% of the total population) may experience 0.1 g level of shaking at relatively frequent intervals [annual rate of 1 in 72 years or 50% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years], 57 million (~18% of the total population) may experience this level of shaking at moderately frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 475 years or 10% PE in 50 years), and 143 million (~46% of the total population) may experience such shaking at relatively infrequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 2,475 years or 2% PE in 50 years). We also show that there are a significant number of critical infrastructure facilities located in high-earthquake-hazard areas (modified Mercalli intensity ≥ VII with moderately frequent recurrence interval).

Understanding Vectorial Migration Patterns of Wastewater-Induced Earthquakes in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2295-2307
Author(s):  
Lisa Johann ◽  
Serge A. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Element Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Correlation Technique ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Pressure Diffusion ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Injection Rates

ABSTRACT The recent surge of earthquakes in the central United States is linked to the disposal of large volumes of wastewater. Even if injection rates have been decreasing since 2015, the seismic hazard remains elevated. Moreover, some events in Kansas occur far from disposal wells. We applied a multidimensional cross-correlation technique to analyze the spatiotemporal relation between fluid injection and earthquakes. While a strong correlation is observed in east-northeastern direction of the disposal wells for the majority of events, some earthquakes occur in northeastern direction far from the disposal wells. We explain this pattern and the large-scale evolution of borehole pressure observations by directional migration of poroelastic stresses and pore pressure diffusion. This follows from our principal 2D poroelastic finite-element model that has a predicting power and identifies controlling parameters of the process. These are the permeability of the basement and its anisotropic character as well as the distribution of critical fault strengths. Our results suggest that remote locations may be destabilized even when injection rates are declining. Thus, a volume reduction may only provide an immediate effect to lower the seismicity locally. It follows that a state-wide reduction in earthquakes may require longer waiting times and that the hazard of induced seismicity may remain elevated for tens of years.

IPCC’s Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations: Varied Representations of North American Hydroclimate Variability

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 4041-4058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North American ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The annual cycle of precipitation and the interannual variability of the North American hydroclimate during summer months are analyzed in coupled simulations of the twentieth-century climate. The state-of-the-art general circulation models, participating in the Fourth Assessment Report for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), included in the present study are the U.S. Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model version EH (GISS-EH), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1); the Met Office’s Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (UKMO-HadCM3); and the Japanese Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2 [MIROC3.2(hires)]. Datasets with proven high quality such as NCEP’s North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.–Mexico precipitation analysis are used as targets for simulations. Climatological precipitation is not easily simulated. While models capture winter precipitation very well over the U.S. northwest, they encounter failure over the U.S. southeast in the same season. Summer precipitation over the central United States and Mexico is also a great challenge for models, particularly the timing. In general the UKMO-HadCM3 is closest to the observations. The models’ potential in simulating interannual hydroclimate variability over North America during the warm season is varied and limited to the central United States. Models like PCM, and in particular UKMO-HadCM3, exhibit reasonably well the observed distribution and relative importance of remote and local contributions to precipitation variability over the region (i.e., convergence of remote moisture fluxes dominate over local evapotranspiration). However, in models like CCSM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 local contributions dominate over remote ones, in contrast with warm-season observations. In the other extreme are models like GISS-EH and MIROC3.2(hires) that prioritize the remote influence of moisture fluxes and neglect the local influence of land surface processes to the regional precipitation variability.

Probabilistic Seismic Loss Analysis for the Design of Steel Structures: Optimizing for Multiple-Objective Functions

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 1587-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanaz Saadat ◽  
Charles V. Camp ◽  
Shahram Pezeshk
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Time History ◽  
Steel Structure ◽  
Steel Structures ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Structural System ◽  
Nonstructural Components ◽  
Central United States

An optimized seismic performance-based design (PBD) methodology considering structural and nonstructural system performance and seismic losses is considered to optimize the design of a steel structure. Optimization objectives are to minimize the initial construction cost associated with the weight of the structural system and the expected annual loss (EAL), considering direct economic losses. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm method is implemented for the multi-objective optimization. Achieving the desired confidence levels in meeting performance objectives of interest are set as constraints of the optimization problem. Inelastic time history analysis is used to evaluate structural response under different levels of earthquake hazard to obtain engineering demand parameters. Hazus fragility functions are employed for obtaining the damage probabilities for the structural system and nonstructural components. The optimized designs and losses are compared for the structure located in two geographic locations: one in the central United States and another in the western United States.

Increases in Life-Safety Risks to Building Occupants from Induced Earthquakes in the Central United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 471-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taojun Liu ◽  
Nicolas Luco ◽  
Abbie B. Liel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Building Collapse ◽  
Central United States ◽  
One Year

Earthquake occurrence rates in some parts of the Central United States have been elevated for a number of years; this increase has been widely attributed to deep wastewater injection associated with oil and gas activities. This induced seismicity has caused damage to buildings and infrastructure and substantial public concern. In March 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published its first earthquake ground motion hazard model that accounts for the elevated seismicity, producing a one-year forecast encompassing both induced and natural earthquakes. To assess the potential impact of the elevated seismicity on buildings and the public, this paper quantifies forecasted risks of (1) building collapse and (2) the falling of nonstructural building components by combining the 2016 USGS hazard model with fragility curves for generic modern code-compliant buildings. The assessment shows significant increases in both types of risk compared to that caused by noninduced earthquakes alone; the magnitude of the increases varies from a few times to more than 100 times, depending on location, building period (which is correlated to building height), alternatives for the hazard model, and type of risk of interest. For exploratory purposes only, we also estimate revised values of the risk-targeted ground motion that are currently used for designing buildings.

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