Effect of Uncertainty in Source Parameters on Ground‐Motion Variability for Potentially Induced Earthquakes in the Central United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 89 (2A) ◽  
pp. 702-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna M. Holmgren ◽  
Gail M. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Ground Motion Variability ◽  
Central United States

Increases in Life-Safety Risks to Building Occupants from Induced Earthquakes in the Central United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 471-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taojun Liu ◽  
Nicolas Luco ◽  
Abbie B. Liel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Building Collapse ◽  
Central United States ◽  
One Year

Earthquake occurrence rates in some parts of the Central United States have been elevated for a number of years; this increase has been widely attributed to deep wastewater injection associated with oil and gas activities. This induced seismicity has caused damage to buildings and infrastructure and substantial public concern. In March 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published its first earthquake ground motion hazard model that accounts for the elevated seismicity, producing a one-year forecast encompassing both induced and natural earthquakes. To assess the potential impact of the elevated seismicity on buildings and the public, this paper quantifies forecasted risks of (1) building collapse and (2) the falling of nonstructural building components by combining the 2016 USGS hazard model with fragility curves for generic modern code-compliant buildings. The assessment shows significant increases in both types of risk compared to that caused by noninduced earthquakes alone; the magnitude of the increases varies from a few times to more than 100 times, depending on location, building period (which is correlated to building height), alternatives for the hazard model, and type of risk of interest. For exploratory purposes only, we also estimate revised values of the risk-targeted ground motion that are currently used for designing buildings.

Spatial attenuation of intensities for central U.S. earthquakes

1976 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 743-751
Author(s):  
Indra N. Gupta ◽  
Otto W. Nuttli
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Mississippi Valley ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Anelastic Attenuation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Spatial Attenuation

abstract Attenuation of ground motion in the central United States has to be determined principally using the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity observations because of the absence of instrumental strong ground-motion data. Nuttli's previous studies of Mississippi Valley earthquakes indicate that higher-mode surface waves produce the largest ground motion except possibly in the near-field region. Particle velocity rather than acceleration correlates directly with intensity and the coefficient of anelastic attenuation has an average value of 0.10 per degree. Using data from isoseismals of the November 9, 1968, southern Illinois and the December 16, 1811, New Madrid, Missouri earthquakes and assuming a linear relationship between log(A/T) and MM intensity, attenuation is expressed by the equation, valid for I(R) ≧IV (MM), I ( R ) = I 0 + 3.7 − 0.0011 R − 2.7 log ⁡ R ; for R ≧ 20 k m where R is the epicentral distance in kilometers. This relationship shows fairly good agreement with isoseismals of many large earthquakes in the central United States and may therefore be useful in providing realistic estimates of spatial attenuation and hence of design earthquakes for a given site. It can also be sometimes useful in estimating the epicentral intensity of an earthquake whose maximum intensity is not reliably known.

Magnitude thresholds and spatial footprints of damage from induced earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 1995-2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bridger W Baird ◽  
Abbie B Liel ◽  
Robert E Chase
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Earthquake Epicenter ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Injection Wells ◽  
Building Models ◽  
Central United States ◽  
First Onset ◽  
Moderate Magnitude

The rise in the number of anthropogenic small- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the central United States raises questions about the damageability of the built environment in such events. This study examines the performance of modern light-frame wood buildings, including single, multifamily, and commercial constructions, in earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 3–6, using dynamic analysis of building models subjected to ground motions recorded in past induced events in North America. We focus on first onset of damage, for example, wallboard or wallpaper cracking, and nails popping out. The results show that earthquakes with magnitudes less than 4–4.25 are unlikely to cause damage to modern constructions. However, moderate-magnitude events can cause damage over a wide geographic area (more than 30 mi from the earthquake epicenter, or 40 or more miles from a wastewater injection well). These results can be used to suggest setback distances between injection wells and certain neighborhoods or facilities, and magnitude thresholds for post-earthquake inspections.

Understanding Vectorial Migration Patterns of Wastewater-Induced Earthquakes in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2295-2307
Author(s):  
Lisa Johann ◽  
Serge A. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Element Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Correlation Technique ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Pressure Diffusion ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Injection Rates

ABSTRACT The recent surge of earthquakes in the central United States is linked to the disposal of large volumes of wastewater. Even if injection rates have been decreasing since 2015, the seismic hazard remains elevated. Moreover, some events in Kansas occur far from disposal wells. We applied a multidimensional cross-correlation technique to analyze the spatiotemporal relation between fluid injection and earthquakes. While a strong correlation is observed in east-northeastern direction of the disposal wells for the majority of events, some earthquakes occur in northeastern direction far from the disposal wells. We explain this pattern and the large-scale evolution of borehole pressure observations by directional migration of poroelastic stresses and pore pressure diffusion. This follows from our principal 2D poroelastic finite-element model that has a predicting power and identifies controlling parameters of the process. These are the permeability of the basement and its anisotropic character as well as the distribution of critical fault strengths. Our results suggest that remote locations may be destabilized even when injection rates are declining. Thus, a volume reduction may only provide an immediate effect to lower the seismicity locally. It follows that a state-wide reduction in earthquakes may require longer waiting times and that the hazard of induced seismicity may remain elevated for tens of years.

A numerical study of peak ground motion scaling

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 1963-1979
Author(s):  
Robert B. Herrmann ◽  
Michael J. Goertz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Data Base ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
States Data ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Motion Scaling ◽  
Ground Motion Scaling

Abstract Strong ground motion scaling relations for the Central United States cannot be obtained by applying regression analysis to the existing, sparse data base. Adaptation of the corresponding Western United States data base must be done carefully because the important problems of differences in regional anelastic attenuation, magnitude scales, and earthquake source physics still have to be resolved. Until this is done, empirical relations have to be adapted, but some test of their validity must be made. Since the Central United States data set is not a valid test, synthetic seismograms can be used to test some of the assumptions and results. The Central United States ground motion scaling problem differs from usual experience in that the nature of ground motion scaling at distances greater than 100 km from the source is of utmost importance. Numerical techniques are used to generate SH time histories in a four layer Central United States earth model. A study of model parameters indicates that simple deductions based on the scaling of pulses are applicable to the high-frequency surface wave trains at large distances and that spatial attenuation for these waves should be of the form R − 5 / 6 exp (−γR) . An attempt to apply the results of the numerical study to the existing Central United States data base is not too impressive because of the limited frequency range of the synthetics and lack of detailed knowledge about earth structure in the Mississippi embayment, from which the actual data were obtained.

Ground‐Motion Simulations of 1811–1812 New Madrid Earthquakes, Central United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (4) ◽  
pp. 1961-1988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Ramirez‐Guzman ◽  
Robert W. Graves ◽  
Kim B. Olsen ◽  
Oliver S. Boyd ◽  
Chris Cramer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations ◽  
Central United States ◽  
New Madrid Earthquakes ◽  
New Madrid

Ground-Motion Attenuation, Stress Drop, and Directivity of Induced Events in the Groningen Gas Field by Spectral Inversion of Borehole Records

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2077-2094 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Ameri ◽  
Christophe Martin ◽  
Adrien Oth
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Destructive Interference ◽  
Rupture Directivity ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Ground Motion Variability ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Groningen Gas Field ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field caused damage to buildings and concerns for the population, the gas-field owner, and the local and national authorities and institutions. The largest event (ML=3.6) occurred in 2012 near Huizinge, and, despite the subsequent decision of the Dutch government to reduce the gas production in the following years, similar magnitude events occurred in 2018 and 2019 (ML=3.4). Thanks to the improvement of the local seismic networks in the last years, recent events provide a large number of recordings and an unprecedented opportunity to study the characteristics of induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field and related ground motions. In this study, we exploit the S-wave Fourier amplitude spectra recorded by the 200 m depth borehole sensors of the G network from 2015 to 2019 to derive source and attenuation parameters for ML≥2 induced earthquakes. The borehole spectra are decomposed into source, attenuation, and site nonparametric functions, and parametric models are then adopted to determine moment magnitudes, corner frequencies, and stress drops of 21 events. Attenuation and source parameters are discussed and compared with previous estimates for the region. The impact of destructive interference of upgoing and downgoing waves at borehole depth on the derived parameters is also discussed and assessed to be minor. The analysis of the apparent source spectra reveals that several events show rupture directivity and provides clear observations of frequency-dependent directivity effects in induced earthquakes. The estimated rupture direction shows a good agreement with orientation of pre-existing faults within the reservoir. Our results confirm that rupture directivity is still an important factor for small-magnitude induced events, affecting the amplitude of recorded short-period response spectra and causing relevant spatial ground-motion variability.

scholarly journals Spatial Variability of Near-field Ground Motions from Pseudo-Dynamic Rupture Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayalakshmi Sivasubramonian ◽  
Paul Martin Mai
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Rise Time ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Velocity Structure ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Rupture Velocity ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters ◽  
Ground Motion Variability

<p>We analyze the effect of earthquake source parameters on ground-motion variability based on near-field wavefield simulations for large earthquakes. We quantify residuals in simulated ground motion intensities with respect to observed records, the associated variabilities are then quantified with respect to source-to-site distance and azimuth. Additionally, we compute the variabilities due to complexities in rupture models by considering variations in hypocenter location and slip distribution that are implemented a new Pseudo-Dynamic (PD) source parameterization.</p><p>In this study, we consider two past events – the Mw 6.9 Iwate Miyagi Earthquake (2008), Japan, and the Mw 6.5 Imperial Valley Earthquake, California (1979). Assuming for each case a 1D velocity structure, we first generate ensembles of rupture models using the pseudo-dynamic approach of Guatteri et.al (2004), by assuming different hypocenter and asperities locations (Mai and Beroza, 2002, Mai et al., 2005; Thingbaijam and Mai, 2016). In order to efficiently include variations in high-frequency radiation, we adopt a PD parameterization for rupture velocity and rise time distribution in our rupture model generator. Overall, we generate a database of rupture models with 50 scenarios for each source parameterization. Synthetic near-field waveforms (0.1-2.5Hz) are computed out to Joyner-Boore distances Rjb ~ 150km using a discrete-wavenumber finite-element method (Olson et al., 1984). Our results show that ground-motion variability is most sensitive to hypocenter locations on the fault plane. We also find that locations of asperities do not alter waveforms significantly for a given hypocenter, rupture velocity and rise time distribution. We compare the scenario-event simulated ground motions with simulations that use the rupture models from the SRCMOD database (Mai and Thingbaijam, 2014), and find that the PD method is capable of reducing the ground motion variability at high frequencies. The PD models are calibrated by comparing the mean residuals with the residuals from SRCMOD models. We present the variability due to each source parameterization as a function of Joyner-Boore distance and azimuth at different natural period.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document