OpenQuake Implementation of the Canterbury Seismic Hazard Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 90 (6) ◽  
pp. 2227-2235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Van Houtte ◽  
Elizabeth Abbott
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Practical Model ◽  
Prospective Model ◽  
Time Varying Models ◽  
Practical Constraints

ABSTRACT This article describes the release of the GNS Science Canterbury Seismic Hazard Model (CSHM), as implemented in the Global Earthquake Model’s OpenQuake software. Time‐varying models are implemented for the 50 yr time period between 2014 and 2064, as well as the 1 yr period from 1 September 2018 to 31 August 2019. Previous implementations have been confined to GNS in‐house software, and although source model input files have been made publicly available, this implementation improves the levels of visibility, documentation, and version control. Because of practical constraints in preparing a model for routine analysis, some corrections and changes to the previous implementations have been made. These constraints highlight issues for consideration when developing future hazard models, particularly the necessity of maintaining a balance between best‐practice science and practical model implementation. By implementing the CSHM in OpenQuake, the model is now in a form that allows users to obtain model outputs for engineering design, risk analyses, and prospective model testing.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard of the Canterbury region, New Zealand

2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Stirling ◽  
Matthew Gerstenberger ◽  
Nicola Litchfield ◽  
Graeme McVerry ◽  
Warwick Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
New Methods

We present a new probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Canterbury region, the model superseding the earlier model of Stirling et al. (1999, 2001). The updated model incorporates new onshore and offshore fault data, new seismicity data, new methods for the earthquake source parameterisation of both datasets, and new methods for estimation of the expected levels of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) across the region. While the overall regional pattern of estimated hazard has not changed since the earlier seismic hazard model, there have been slight reductions in hazard in some areas (western Canterbury Plains and eastern Southern Alps), coupled with significant increases in hazard in one area (immediately northeast of Kaikoura). The changes to estimated acceleration for the new versus older model serve to show the extent that major changes to a multidisciplinary source model may impact the final estimates of hazard, while the new MMI estimates show the added impact of a new methodology for calculating MMI hazard.

scholarly journals 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110520
Author(s):  
Mark D Petersen ◽  
Allison M Shumway ◽  
Peter M Powers ◽  
Morgan P Moschetti ◽  
Andrea L Llenos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Adaptive Methods ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
The State ◽  
Caldera Collapse ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Ground Shaking

The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude criteria that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model that accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historical seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are calculated using western US and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for 8 site classes. For most sites the new analysis results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are the highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai’i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.

scholarly journals Insights on the European Fault-Source Model (EFSM20) as input to the 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Basili ◽  
Laurentiu Danciu ◽  
Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa ◽  
Vanja Kastelic ◽  
Francesco Emanuele Maesano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Active Faulting ◽  
Horizon 2020 ◽  
Bull Earthquake ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Seismic Design Code ◽  
Fault Source

<p>The H2020 Project SERA (WP25-JRA3; http://www.sera-eu.org) is committed to updating and extending the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13; Woessner et al., 2015, Bull. Earthquake Eng.) to form the basis of the next revision of the European seismic design code (CEN-EC8). Following the probabilistic framework established for ESHM13, the 2020 update (ESHM20) requires a continent-wide seismogenic model based on input from earthquake catalogs, tectonic information, and active faulting. The development of the European Fault-Source Model (EFSM20) fulfills the requirements related to active faulting.</p><p>EFSM20 has two main categories of seismogenic faults: crustal faults and subduction systems. Crustal faults are meant to provide the hazard model with seismicity rates in a variety of tectonic contexts, including onshore and offshore active plate margins and plate interiors. Subduction systems are meant to provide the hazard model with both slab interface and intraslab seismicity rates. The model covers an area that encompasses a buffer of 300 km around all target European countries (except for Overseas Countries and Territories, OTCs), and a maximum of 300 km depth for slabs.</p><p>The compilation of EFSM20 relies heavily on publicly available datasets and voluntarily contributed datasets spanning large regions, as well as solicited local contributions in specific areas of interest. The current status of the EFSM20 compilation includes 1,256 records of crustal faults for a total length of ~92,906 km and four subduction systems, namely the Gibraltar Arc, Calabrian Arc, Hellenic Arc, and Cyprus Arc.</p><p>In this contribution, we present the curation of the main datasets and their associated information, the criteria for the prioritization and harmonization across the region, and the main strategy for transferring the earthquake fault-source input to the hazard modelers.</p><p>The final version of EFSM20 will be made available through standard web services published in the EFEHR (http://www.efehr.org) and EPOS (https://www.seismofaults.eu) platforms adopting FAIR data principles.</p><p>The SERA project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No.730900.</p>

scholarly journals Simultaneous inference for time-varying models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayar Karmakar ◽  
Stefan Richter ◽  
Wei Biao Wu
Keyword(s):  
Simultaneous Inference ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Time Varying Models

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on hip fractures: the central London experience COVID-related urgent geriatric hip trauma (COUGH) study COVERT ( COVid Emergency-Related Trauma and orthopaedics) collaborative

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Park ◽  
Kapil Sugand ◽  
Arash Aframian ◽  
Catrin Morgan ◽  
Nadia Pakroo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Best Practice ◽  
Neck Of Femur ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Femur Fractures ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Vulnerable Patients ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Usual Residence ◽  
Hip Trauma ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Introduction COVID-19 has been recognized as the unprecedented global health crisis in modern times. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 on treatment of neck of femur fractures (NOFF) against the current guidelines and meeting best practice key performance indicators (KPIs) according to the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) in two large central London hospitals. Materials and methods A multi-center, longitudinal, retrospective, observational study of NOFF patients was performed for the first ‘golden’ month following the lockdown measures introduced in mid-March 2020. This was compared to the same time period in 2019. Results A total of 78 cases were observed. NOFFs accounted for 11% more of all acute referrals during the COVID era. There were fewer overall breaches in KPIs in time to theatre in 2020 and also for those awaiting an orthogeriatric review. Time to discharge from the trust during the pandemic was improved by 54% (p < 0.00001) but patients were 51% less likely to return to their usual residence (p = 0.007). The odds ratio was significantly higher for consultant surgeon-led operations and consultant orthogeriatric-led review in the post-COVID era. There was no significant difference in using aerosol-generating anaesthetic procedures or immortality rates between both years. Conclusion The impact of COVID-19 pandemic has not adversely affected the KPIs for the treatment of NOFF patients with significant improvement in numerous care domains. These findings may represent the efforts to ensure that these vulnerable patients are treated promptly to minimize their risks from the coronavirus.

A Hybrid Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Model for Canterbury, New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 1311-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Gerstenberger ◽  
David A. Rhoades ◽  
Graeme H. McVerry
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
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