Estimation of Ground‐Motion Variability in the Central and Eastern United States Using Deterministic Physics‐Based Synthetics

Author(s):  
Xiaodan Sun ◽  
Brandon Clayton ◽  
Stephen Hartzell ◽  
Sanaz Rezaeian
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 6119-6148
Author(s):  
Graeme Weatherill ◽  
Fabrice Cotton

Abstract Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.


1993 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. 1064-1080 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Bollinger ◽  
M. C. Chapman ◽  
M. S. Sibol

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between earthquake magnitude and the size of damage areas in the eastern and western United States. To quantify damage area as a function of moment magnitude (M), 149 MMI VI and VII areas for 109 earthquakes (88 in the western United States, 21 in the eastern United States and Canada) were measured. Regression of isoseismal areas versus M indicated that areas in the East were larger than those in the West, at both intensity levels, by an average 5 × in the M 4.5 to 7.5 range. In terms of radii for circles of equivalent area, these results indicate that damaging ground motion from shocks of the same magnitude extend 2 × the epicentral distance in eastern North America compared to the West. To determine source and site parameters consistent with the above results, response spectral levels for eastern North America were stochastically simulated and compared with response spectral ordinates derived from recorded strong ground motion data in the western United States. Stress-drop values of 200 bars, combined with a surficial 2-km-thick low velocity “sedimentary” layer over rock basement, produced results that are compatible with the intensity observations, i.e., similar response spectral levels in the east at approximately twice their epicentral distance in the western U.S. distance. These results suggest that ground motion modeling in eastern North America may need to incorporate source and site parameters different from those presently in general use. The results are also of importance to eastern U.S. hazard assessments as they require allowance for the larger damage areas in preparedness and mitigation programs.


1982 ◽  
Vol 72 (6A) ◽  
pp. 2081-2088
Author(s):  
I. N. Gupta ◽  
D. H. von Seggern ◽  
R. A. Wagner

abstract Three-component, short-period data on Lg in the Eastern United States show unusually large regional variations in the average value of the ratio of the largest horizontal (H) to the largest vertical (Z) component of ground motion. This ratio is found to have a value of about 3 or larger for most sites in the central platform and the coastal plains regions and less than 2 for the hard-rock sites in the Appalachian Mountains region. Large values of H/Z in the region of coastal plains sediments can be explained as being due to the presence of low-velocity overburden but such an explanation is probably not valid for sites in the central platform region. Large variations in H/Z from one site to another are of special importance in earthquake engineering since most damage to structures is generally caused by the horizontal components of ground motion.


2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. S109-S130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Boyd ◽  
Kathleen Haller ◽  
Nico Luco ◽  
Morgan Moschetti ◽  
Charles Mueller ◽  
...  

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.


1985 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.C. Gwaltney ◽  
G.A. Aramayo ◽  
R.T. Williams

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110160
Author(s):  
Zoya Farajpour ◽  
Shahram Pezeshk

This study presents a new ground motion model (GMM) for small-to-moderate potentially induced earthquakes for Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). We used a hybrid empirical model as the base model, which was developed and calibrated for tectonic events in Central and Eastern North America (CENA) as part of the Next-generation Attenuation-East (NGA-East) project. We calibrated the base model using a comprehensive database of potentially induced ground motions with smaller magnitudes and shallower depths than tectonic earthquakes, excluding all earthquake events and stations within the Gulf Coast region. We determined the model functional form coefficients using a mixed-effect regression procedure. The proposed GMM is derived for the peak ground acceleration and response-spectral ordinates at periods ranging from 0.01 to 10.0s, moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 5.8, and hypocentral distances up to 200km. The performance of the proposed GMM is evaluated through a set of comprehensive residual analyses. Furthermore, we compared the proposed GMM with recently published GMMs with the observed data for CEUS. The proposed GMM could apply in long-term and short-term US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps and for the hazard evaluation of induced seismicity.


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