Prediction of Ground-Motion Parameters for the NGA-West2 Database Using Refined Second-Order Deep Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duofa Ji ◽  
Chenxi Li ◽  
Changhai Zhai ◽  
You Dong ◽  
Evangelos I. Katsanos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Engineering Research ◽  
Motion Models

ABSTRACT One of the key elements within seismic hazard analysis is the establishment of appropriate ground-motion models (GMMs), which are used to predict the levels of ground-motion intensities by considering various parameters (e.g., source, path, and site). Many empirical GMMs were derived on the basis of a predefined linear or nonlinear equation that is heavily dependent on the a priori knowledge of a functional form that varies between the modelers’ choices. To overcome this issue, this study develops a deep neural network (DNN) trained by the recordings from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project (NGA-West2) database. To this end, we collected 20,900 ground motion recordings from the database and randomly split them into the training, validation, and testing datasets. The refined second-order neuron is proposed to solve the problem, and the Adam optimizer is used to optimize the performance of the model. The prediction errors are evaluated by three performance indicators (i.e., R2, root mean square error, mean absolute error), and the predictive results are compared with previous GMMs developed based on the PEER NGA-West2 database. The between-event and within-event standard deviations (SDs) as well as total SDs are calculated and compared. Based on the comparisons, our model maintains consistent performance (e.g., the dependence of predicted intensity measures on seismological and site-specific parameters) with the compared GMM. Its relatively small total SDs, especially for longer periods, confirm that the proposed model is associated with better predictive power.

Ground Motion Models for the Horizontal Components of Arias Intensity (AI) and Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) Using the NGA-West2 Database

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 1289-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Campbell ◽  
Yousef Bozorgnia
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Absolute Velocity ◽  
Arias Intensity ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Cumulative Absolute Velocity ◽  
Ground Motion Models

We updated our Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West1 ground motion models (GMMs) for the horizontal components of Arias intensity (AI) and cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) using the functional form and NGA-West2 database we used to develop GMMs for peak-amplitude and peak-spectral ground motion intensity measures (GMIMs). Our results show that CAV has the best goodness-of-fit statistics of all the GMIMs we have evaluated up to this time. Its relatively small between- and within-event standard deviations confirm its superior predictability. On the other hand, AI has the highest standard deviation of any GMIM we have studied thus far, which is approximately double that of CAV. Although either CAV or AI or a combination of both have been shown to meet various performance metrics proposed in the context of performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE), CAV's high level of predictability makes it superior to AI for use in engineering applications, such as PBEE, that involve probabilistic inference.

An Overview of the NGA Project

2008 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurice Power ◽  
Brian Chiou ◽  
Norman Abrahamson ◽  
Yousef Bozorgnia ◽  
Thomas Shantz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Research Program ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Engineering Research ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Attenuation ◽  
Attenuation Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

The “Next Generation of Ground-Motion Attenuation Models” (NGA) project is a multidisciplinary research program coordinated by the Lifelines Program of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center. The objective of the project is to develop new ground-motion prediction relations through a comprehensive and highly interactive research program. Five sets of ground-motion models were developed by teams working independently but interacting with one another throughout the development process. The development of ground-motion models was supported by other project components, which included (1) developing an updated and expanded PEER database of recorded ground motions, including supporting information on the strong-motion record processing, earthquake sources, travel path, and recording station site conditions; (2) conducting supporting research projects to provide guidance on the selected functional forms of the ground-motion models; and (3) conducting a program of interactions throughout the development process to provide input and reviews from both the scientific research and engineering user communities. An overview of the NGA project components, process, and products is presented in this paper.

NGA-West2 Models for Ground Motion Directionality

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 1285-1300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shrey K. Shahi ◽  
Jack W. Baker
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Engineering Research ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Horizontal Ground Motion ◽  
Motion Directionality ◽  
The Relationship

The NGA-West2 research program, coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), is a major effort to produce refined models for predicting ground motion response spectra. This study presents new models for ground motion directionality developed as part of that project. Using a database of recorded ground motions, empirical models have been developed for a variety of quantities related to direction-dependent spectra. A model is proposed for the maximum spectral acceleration observed in any orientation of horizontal ground motion shaking ( Sa RotD100), which is formulated as a multiplicative factor to be coupled with the NGA-West2 models that predict the median spectral accelerations over all orientations ( Sa RotD50). Models are also proposed for the distribution of orientations of the Sa RotD100 value, relative to the fault and the relationship between Sa RotD100 orientations at differing periods. Discussion is provided regarding how these results can be applied to perform seismic hazard analysis and compute realistic target spectra conditioned on different parameters.

Applied Incremental Dynamic Analysis

2004 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 523-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Vamvatsikos ◽  
C. Allin Cornell
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Incremental Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Structural Demand

We are presenting a practical and detailed example of how to perform incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), interpret the results and apply them to performance-based earthquake engineering. IDA is an emerging analysis method that offers thorough seismic demand and capacity prediction capability by using a series of nonlinear dynamic analyses under a multiply scaled suite of ground motion records. Realization of its opportunities requires several steps and the use of innovative techniques at each one of them. Using a nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with fracturing connections as a test bed, the reader is guided through each step of IDA: (1) choosing suitable ground motion intensity measures and representative damage measures, (2) using appropriate algorithms to select the record scaling, (3) employing proper interpolation and (4) summarization techniques for multiple records to estimate the probability distribution of the structural demand given the seismic intensity, and (5) defining limit-states, such as the dynamic global system instability, to calculate the corresponding capacities. Finally, (6) the results can be used to gain intuition for the structural behavior, highlighting the connection between the static pushover (SPO) and the dynamic response, or (7) they can be integrated with conventional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate mean annual frequencies of limit-state exceedance. Building upon this detailed example based on the nine-story structure, a complete commentary is provided, discussing the choices that are available to the user, and showing their implications for each step of the IDA.

Relational database used for ground-motion model development in the NGA-sub project

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110552
Author(s):  
Silvia Mazzoni ◽  
Tadahiro Kishida ◽  
Jonathan P Stewart ◽  
Victor Contreras ◽  
Robert B Darragh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Data Storage ◽  
Relational Database ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Model ◽  
Ground Motion Models ◽  
Pseudo Spectral

The Next-Generation Attenuation for subduction zone regions project (NGA-Sub) has developed data resources and ground motion models for global subduction zone regions. Here we describe the NGA-Sub database. To optimize the efficiency of data storage, access, and updating, data resources for the NGA-Sub project are organized into a relational database consisting of 20 tables containing data, metadata, and computed quantities (e.g. intensity measures, distances). A database schema relates fields in tables to each other through a series of primary and foreign keys. Model developers and other users mostly interact with the data through a flatfile generated as a time-stamped output of the database. We describe the structure of the relational database, the ground motions compiled for the project, and the means by which the data can be accessed. The database contains 71,340 three-component records from 1880 earthquakes from seven global subduction zone regions: Alaska, Central America and Mexico, Cascadia, Japan, New Zealand, South America, and Taiwan. These data were processed on a component-specific basis to minimize noise effects in the data and remove baseline drifts. Provided ground motion intensity measures include peak acceleration, peak velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations for a range of oscillator periods.

scholarly journals Ground motion models for Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity, peak incremental ground velocity, and significant duration in New Zealand

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zach Bullock
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Absolute Velocity ◽  
Taupo Volcanic Zone ◽  
Arias Intensity ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Cumulative Absolute Velocity ◽  
Functional Forms ◽  
Ground Motion Models

This study proposes empirical ground motion models for a variety of non-spectral intensity measures and significant durations in New Zealand. Equations are presented for the prediction of the median and maximum rotated components of Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity, cumulative absolute velocity above a 5 cm/s2 acceleration threshold, peak incremental ground velocity, and the 5% to 75% and 5% to 95% significant durations. Recent research has highlighted the usefulness of these parameters in both structural and geotechnical engineering. The New Zealand Strong Motion Database provides the database for regression and includes many earthquakes from all regions of New Zealand with the exceptions of Auckland and Northland, Otago and Southland, and Taranaki. The functional forms for the proposed models are selected using cross validation. The possible influence of effects not typically included in ground motion models for these intensity measures is considered, such as hanging wall effects and basin depth effects, as well as altered attenuation in the Taupo Volcanic Zone. The selected functional forms include magnitude and rupture depth scaling, attenuation with distance, and shallow site effects. Finally, the spatial autocorrelation of the models’ within-event residuals is considered and recommendations are made for developing correlated maps of intensity predictions stochastically.

Ranking of Ground-Motion Models (GMMs) for Use in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Iran Based on an Independent Data Set

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoya Farajpour ◽  
Milad Kowsari ◽  
Shahram Pezeshk ◽  
Benedikt Halldorsson
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT We apply three data-driven selection methods, log-likelihood (LLH), Euclidean distance-based ranking (EDR), and deviance information criterion (DIC), to objectively evaluate the predictive capability of 10 ground-motion models (GMMs) developed from Iranian and worldwide data sets against a new and independent Iranian strong-motion data set. The data set includes, for example, the 12 November 2017 Mw 7.3 Ezgaleh earthquake and the 25 November 2018 Mw 6.3 Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake and includes a total of 201 records from 29 recent events with moment magnitudes 4.5≤Mw≤7.3 with distances up to 275 km. The results of this study show that the prior sigma of the GMMs acts as the key measure used by the LLH and EDR methods in the ranking against the data set. In some cases, this leads to the resulting model bias being ignored. In contrast, the DIC method is free from such ambiguity as it uses the posterior sigma as the basis for the ranking. Thus, the DIC method offers a clear advantage of partially removing the ergodic assumption from the GMM selection process and allows a more objective representation of the expected ground motion at a specific site when the ground-motion recordings are homogeneously distributed in terms of magnitudes and distances. The ranking results thus show that the local models that were exclusively developed from Iranian strong motions perform better than GMMs from other regions for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Iran. Among the Next Generation Attenuation-West2 models, the GMMs by Boore et al. (2014) and Abrahamson et al. (2014) perform better. The GMMs proposed by Darzi et al. (2019) and Farajpour et al. (2019) fit the recorded data well at short periods (peak ground acceleration and pseudoacceleration spectra at T=0.2  s). However, at long periods, the models developed by Zafarani et al. (2018), Sedaghati and Pezeshk (2017), and Kale et al. (2015) are preferable.

Efficient Intensity Measures for Probabilistic Seismic Response Analysis of Anchored Above-Ground Liquid Steel Storage Tanks

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoang Nam Phan ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Seismic Analysis ◽  
Time History ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Storage Tanks ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Study Results

Liquid storage tanks are vital lifeline structures and have been widely used in industries and nuclear power plants. In performance-based earthquake engineering, the assessment of probabilistic seismic risk of structural components at a site is significantly affected by the choice of ground motion intensity measures (IMs). However, at present there is no specific widely accepted procedure to evaluate the efficiency of IMs used in assessing the seismic performance of steel storage tanks. The study presented herein concerns the probabilistic seismic analysis of anchored above-ground steel storage tanks subjected to several sets of ground motion records. The engineering demand parameters for the analysis are the compressive meridional stress in the tank wall and the sloshing wave height of the liquid free surface. The efficiency and sufficiency of each alternative IM are quantified by results of time history analyses for the structural response and a proper regression analysis. According to the comparative study results, this paper proposes the most efficient and sufficient IMs with respect to the above demand parameters for a portfolio of anchored steel storage tanks.

NGA-West2 Research Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 973-987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yousef Bozorgnia ◽  
Norman A. Abrahamson ◽  
Linda Al Atik ◽  
Timothy D. Ancheta ◽  
Gail M. Atkinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Research Program ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Earthquake Hazards ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Engineering Research ◽  
Crustal Earthquakes

The NGA-West2 project is a large multidisciplinary, multi-year research program on the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The research project has been coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), with extensive technical interactions among many individuals and organizations. NGA-West2 addresses several key issues in ground-motion seismic hazard, including updating the NGA database for a magnitude range of 3.0–7.9; updating NGA ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the “average” horizontal component; scaling response spectra for damping values other than 5%; quantifying the effects of directivity and directionality for horizontal ground motion; resolving discrepancies between the NGA and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site amplification factors; analysis of epistemic uncertainty for NGA GMPEs; and developing GMPEs for vertical ground motion. This paper presents an overview of the NGA-West2 research program and its subprojects.

Exploring the Proximity of Ground-Motion Models Using High-Dimensional Visualization Techniques

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1117-1138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Scherbaum ◽  
Nicolas M. Kuehn ◽  
Matthias Ohrnberger ◽  
Andreas Koehler
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Metric Set ◽  
Motion Characteristics ◽  
Visualization Techniques ◽  
Ground Motion Models

Logic trees have become a popular tool to capture epistemic uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis. They are commonly used by assigning weights to models on a purely descriptive basis (nominal scale). This invites the creation of unintended inconsistencies regarding the weights on the corresponding hazard curves. On the other hand, for human experts it is difficult to confidently express degrees-of-beliefs in particular numerical values. Here we demonstrate for ground-motion models how the model and the value-based perspectives can be partially reconciled by using high-dimensional information-visualization techniques. For this purpose we use Sammon's (1969) mapping and self-organizing mapping to project ground-motion models onto a two-dimensional map (an ordered metric set). Here they can be evaluated jointly according to their proximity in predicting similar ground motions, potentially making the assignment of logic tree weights consistent with their ground motion characteristics without having to abandon the model-based perspective.

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