scholarly journals Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research : Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (102) ◽  
pp. 1-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew C. Chang ◽  
◽  
Phillip Li
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Revisions ◽  
Economics Research

Bread Before Guns or Butter: Introducing Surplus Domestic Product (SDP)

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 392-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Therese Anders ◽  
Christopher J Fariss ◽  
Jonathan N Markowitz
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The Core ◽  
Power Resources ◽  
Mixed Support ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
Core Problem

Abstract Scholars systematically mismeasure power resources and military burdens by using gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for the income states can devote to arming. The core problem is that GDP confounds two conceptually distinct forms of income into one additive indicator. Subsistence income represents resources needed to provide the “bread” necessary to cover the basic subsistence needs of the population. Surplus income represents the remaining resources that could be allocated to “guns” or “butter.” Our new measure of surplus domestic product (SDP) corrects for this measurement error by decomposing subsistence income and surplus income from total GDP. Validation exercises demonstrate that SDP outperforms GDP at measuring the distribution of power resources. Though theoretically we expect states’ decisions to arm are influenced by the distribution of power; empirical models using GDP find mixed support for this expectation. Strikingly, using SDP reveals strong support for this proposition.

scholarly journals ARIMA Model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
Atanu, Enebi Yahaya ◽  
Ette, Harrison Etuk ◽  
Nwuju, Kingdom ◽  
Nwaoha, William Chimee
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Important Index ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Out Of Sample

A nation’s GDP is an important index reflecting development in economy and incomes. This paper uses the annual data of Nigeria’s GDP from 1981 to 2019 as the research data. An Augmented Dick Fuller test was used to test for stationarity of the data and was seen to be stationary at the second differencing. ARIMA (1, 2, 1) was identified as an appropriate model using Eviews 11 software after comparing the AIC values. The Ljung-Box test of the Residual satisfied that the model was adequate and was used to forecast the out of sample data. And with a Theil inequality of 0.022008, the model forecasting ability is deemed be a good.

scholarly journals NOWCASTING ‘TRUE’ MONTHLY U.S. GDP DURING THE PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 256 ◽  
pp. 44-70
Author(s):  
Gary Koop ◽  
Stuart McIntyre ◽  
James Mitchell ◽  
Aubrey Poon
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Mixed Frequency ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Error Distributions ◽  
The Face

Expenditure-side and income-side gross domestic product (GDP) are measured at the quarterly frequency and contain measurement error. Econometric methods exist for producing reconciled estimates of underlying true GDP from these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this paper developed a mixed-frequency reconciliation model which produces monthly estimates of true GDP. In the present paper, we investigate whether this model continues to work well in the face of the extreme observations that occurred during the pandemic year and consider several extensions of it. These include stochastic volatility and error distributions that are fat-tailed or explicitly allow for outliers.

EVALUATION OF EXPORT DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES FROM TURKEY TO LITHUANIA

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnė JOTAUTAITĖ ◽  
Eglė JOTAUTIENĖ
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Database Analysis ◽  
Fast Growing ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Textile Products

In this paper, export opportunities of textile products from Turkey to Lithuania are analyzed. The main goal of this article is to present an analysis of the opportunities to import textile products from Turkey to Lithuania. The empirical research basing on the statistical database analysis was used. The analysis of Turkey’s markets was showed that the economy is strongly dependent on exports of various products from Turkey and it is about one forth of Turkey’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The bulk of exports from Turkey is t o countries in the European Union. Turkey is one of the world’s largest manufacturers and exporters of textiles. The analysis of Lithuanian markets was indicated that Lithuania has a feasible market for imports due to its fast growing GDP, increasing labor wages and modernization of agriculture industry. Furthermore, advantageous and adequate policies of Lithuania’s foreign trade should encourage the development of imports to this country. The demand for textile products in Lithuania is growing rapidly and it is one of the most important sectors in fostering its economy

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