Modeling the Long-Term Health and Cost Impacts of Reducing Smoking Prevalence through Tobacco Taxation in Ukraine

10.1596/26400 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Tobacco Taxation

Long-term impact of plain packaging of cigarettes with larger graphic health warnings: findings from cross-sectional surveys of Australian adolescents between 2011 and 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (e1) ◽  
pp. e77-e84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria M White ◽  
Nicola Guerin ◽  
Tahlia Williams ◽  
Melanie A Wakefield
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Health Warnings ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Plain Packaging ◽  
School Based ◽  
Negative Perceptions ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Cigarette Packs ◽  
Positive Character

ObjectiveTo assess the long-term impact of plain packaging (PP) of cigarettes with larger graphic health warnings (HW) introduced in December 2012 on adolescents’ relevant tobacco-related perceptions.MethodsCross-sectional school-based surveys of 12 to 17 year olds in 2011 (n=4413), 2013 (n=4423), 2014 (n=4576) and 2017 (n=4266). Students rated the character of four popular cigarette brands, indicated their agreement regarding brand differences in smoking ease, quitting, addictiveness, harmfulness and pack attractiveness and positive/negative perceptions of pack image. The frequency of students reading, attending to, thinking and talking about HW was assessed. Responses of students seeing cigarette packs in the previous 6 months (2011: 63%; 2013: 67%, 2014: 56%, 2017: 56%) were examined.ResultsSmoking prevalence declined from 2011 to 2017. Among students who had recently seen packs, cigarette packs were rated less positively and more negatively in 2017 than in 2011 (p<0.001) with ratings similar between 2013 and 2017. Positive character ratings for each brand reduced between 2011 and 2013 (ps<0.05) with further reductions between 2013 and 2017 (ps<0.05). Fewer students agreed, and more were uncertain, that brands differed in their smoking ease, addictiveness, harmfulness and pack attractiveness in 2017 than 2011. The frequency of students reading, attending, talking or thinking about HW did not change between 2011 and 2017.ConclusionsPP’s initial impact in reducing adolescent’s positive perceptions of cigarette packs and brand differences continued in the following years with tobacco packaging less appealing to young people in 2017 than 2011 and students more uncertain about brand differences.

scholarly journals Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Sanna ◽  
Wayne Gao ◽  
Ya-Wen Chiu ◽  
Hung-Yi Chiou ◽  
Yi-Hua Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
The Status ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Per Capita Consumption

IntroductionAdult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture.MethodsWe used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality.ResultsThe model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the ‘status quo’ scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060.ConclusionsTobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.

Long-Term Follow-Up of Youth Access to Tobacco Laws' Impact on Smoking Prevalence

1999 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard A. Jason ◽  
Richard Katz ◽  
Jennifer Vavra ◽  
Daniel L. Schnopp-Wyatt ◽  
Bruce Talbot
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Long Term Follow Up

scholarly journals Death or Taxes? An Examination of Recent Changes in Tobacco Taxation Policy in Canada

1994 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-103
Author(s):  
Michael DE Goodyear
Keyword(s):  
Free Market ◽  
Medical Profession ◽  
National Level ◽  
Taxation Policy ◽  
Tobacco Taxes ◽  
Policy Alternatives ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Tobacco Taxation

Manipulation of the price of tobacco products has proven to be one of the most effective tools in tobacco control. However, a strategy relying predominantly on tampering with free-market conditions by raising prices independently of the quantity available is unlikely to be successful over the long term, unless balanced by equal efforts to reduce demand. Canada has a number of unique factors which combined to create a contraband market that eventually led to political pressure for action at a national level. Although presented with a number of policy alternatives, the federal government based its strategy on reducing tobacco taxes to compete with the contraband product. Provision of an effective comprehensive national strategy to combat tobacco has yet to be realized. Econometric models predict significant changes in consumption from drastic tax reductions that effectively halved the retail price in a large part of Canada. The medical profession and public health authorities will need to combat these effects, not only by working for restoration of fiscal pressures but also for sweeping measures to restrict overall demand if increases in long term morbidity and mortality are to be prevented.

scholarly journals Impact of UK Tobacco Control Policies on Inequalities in Youth Smoking Uptake: A Natural Experiment Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 1973-1980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Emeka Anyanwu ◽  
Peter Craig ◽  
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi ◽  
Michael James Green
Keyword(s):  
Parental Education ◽  
Smoking Initiation ◽  
Youth Smoking ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Tobacco Control Policies ◽  
Occasional Smoking ◽  
Smoking Uptake ◽  
Tobacco Taxation ◽  
Smoking Transitions

Abstract Introduction UK countries implemented smoke-free public places legislation and increased the legal age for tobacco purchase from 16 to 18 years between 2006 and 2008. We evaluated the immediate and long-term impacts of these UK policy changes on youth smoking uptake and inequalities therein. Aims and Methods We studied 74 960 person-years of longitudinal data from 14 992 youths (aged 11–15 years) in annual UK household surveys between 1994 and 2016. Discrete-time event history analyses examined whether changes in rates of youth smoking transitions (initiation, experimentation, and escalation to daily smoking or quitting) or their inequalities (by parental education) were associated with policy implementation. Parallel analyses examined smoke-free legislation and the change in legal age. We interpret the results as a combined effect of the two pieces of legislation as their implementation dates were too close to identify separate effects. Models were adjusted for sex, age, UK country, historical year, tobacco taxation, and e-cigarette prevalence, with multiple imputation for missing data. Results For both policies, smoking initiation reduced following implementation (change in legal age odds ratio [OR]: 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.55 to 0.81; smoke-free legislation OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.82), while inequalities in initiation narrowed over subsequent years. The legal age change was associated with annual increases in progression from initiation to occasional smoking (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.50) and a reduction in quitting following implementation (OR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.94). Similar effects were observed for smoke-free legislation but CIs overlapped the null. Conclusions Policies such as these may be highly effective in preventing and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in youth smoking initiation. Implications UK implementation of smoke-free legislation and an increase in the legal age for tobacco purchase from 16 to 18 years were associated with an immediate reduction in smoking initiation and a narrowing of inequalities in initiation over subsequent years. While the policies were associated with reductions in the initiation, progression to occasional smoking increased and quitting decreased following the legislation.

Projecting the future impact of past accomplishments in tobacco control

2020 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2019-055487
Author(s):  
Michael V Maciosek ◽  
Ann W St Claire ◽  
Paula A Keller ◽  
Amy B LaFrance ◽  
Zack Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tobacco Prevention ◽  
Quit Smoking ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
And Control ◽  
Productivity Gains ◽  
Population Effects

BackgroundThe benefits to adults who quit smoking increase over time as former smokers live longer, healthier lives. Youth who never smoke will benefit for decades. Thus, the long-term population effects of tobacco prevention and control policies may be substantial. Yet they are rarely quantified in evaluations of state tobacco control programmes.MethodsUsing a microsimulation model, we predicted the benefits to Minnesotans from 2018 to 2037 of having reduced cigarette smoking prevalence from 1998 to 2017. We first simulated the health and economic harms of tobacco that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. The harms produced by that scenario were then compared with harms in scenarios with smoking declining at observed rates from 1998 to 2017 and either expected declines from 2018 to 2037 or a greater decline to 5% prevalence in 2037.ResultsWith expected smoking prevalence decreases from 2018 to 2037, Minnesotans will experience 12 298 fewer cancers, 72 208 fewer hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 31 913 fewer respiratory disease hospitalisations, 14 063 fewer smoking-attributable deaths, $10.2 billion less in smoking-attributable medical expenditures and $9.4 billion in productivity gains than if prevalence had stayed at 1997 levels. These gains are two to four times greater than for the previous 20 years, and would be about 15% higher if Minnesota achieves a 5% adult prevalence rate by 2037.ConclusionsThe tobacco control measures implemented from 1998 to 2017 will produce accelerated benefits during 2018–2037 if modest progress in tobacco prevalence rates is maintained.

scholarly journals Cigarette Smoking Trajectories in Adult Former Smokers Using the JUUL System

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 505-526
Author(s):  
Gem M. Le ◽  
Nathan M. Holt ◽  
Nicholas I. Goldenson ◽  
Lauren C. Smith ◽  
Cameron Hatcher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cigarette Smoking ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Prevalence Rates ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Former Smokers ◽  
Persistent Smoking ◽  
Over Time

Objective: In this study, we assessed cigarette smoking over 12 months among adult former smokers who newly purchased a JUUL Starter Kit (JSK). Methods: Prevalence of past 30-day smoking and factors associated with smoking were assessed among adult (age ≥ 21) former established smokers, stratified as recent (quitting ≤ 12 months) and long-term quitters (> 12 months), who purchased a JSK and completed ≥ 1 of 6 follow-up assessments (N = 4786). Results: Recent quitters had higher rates (16.6%-19.9%) of past 30-day smoking than long-term quitters (6.4%-9.2%) across the 12-month period; smoking prevalence did not significantly increase over time in either subgroup. Few participants (6.5% of recent quitters, 2.8% of long-term quitters) reported smoking at both 9 and 12 months, a pattern that might indicate persistent smoking. Past 30-day JUUL use remained high (≥ 87%) across the 12 months. Participants who used JUUL more frequently were less likely to smoke. Conclusions: Among former smokers who purchased JUUL, prevalence rates of smoking were low and stable across the 12-month period, suggesting there was not a growing cohort of former smokers resuming smoking. Smoking was more common in recent quitters than long-term quitters. Greater use of JUUL was associated with reduced odds of smoking resumption.

scholarly journals Process Evaluation of a Medical Student–Delivered Smoking Prevention Program for Secondary Schools: Protocol for the Education Against Tobacco Cluster Randomized Trial (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Titus Josef Brinker ◽  
Fabian Buslaff ◽  
Janina Leonie Suhre ◽  
Marc Philipp Silchmüller ◽  
Evgenia Divizieva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Student ◽  
Randomized Trial ◽  
Process Evaluation ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Cluster Randomized Trial ◽  
Smoking Prevention ◽  
School Based ◽  
Cluster Randomized ◽  
And Control

BACKGROUND Most smokers start smoking during their early adolescence under the impression that smoking entails positive attributes. Given the addictive nature of cigarettes, however, many of them might end up as long-term smokers and suffering from tobacco-related diseases. To prevent tobacco use among adolescents, the large international medical students’ network Education Against Tobacco (EAT) educates more than 40,000 secondary school students per year in the classroom setting, using evidence-based self-developed apps and strategies. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of the school-based EAT intervention in reducing smoking prevalence among seventh-grade students in Germany. Additionally, we aimed to improve the intervention by drawing conclusions from our process evaluation. METHODS We conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial with measurements at baseline and 9, 16, and 24 months postintervention via paper-and-pencil questionnaires administered by teachers. The study groups consist of randomized schools receiving the 2016 EAT curriculum and control schools with comparable baseline data (no intervention). The primary outcome is the difference of change in smoking prevalence between the intervention and control groups at the 24-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes are between-group differences of changes in smoking-related attitudes and the number of new smokers, quitters, and never-smokers. RESULTS A total of 11,268 students of both sexes, with an average age of 12.32 years, in seventh grade of 144 secondary schools in Germany were included at baseline. The prevalence of cigarette smoking in our sample was 2.6%. The process evaluation surveys were filled out by 324 medical student volunteers, 63 medical student supervisors, 4896 students, and 141 teachers. CONCLUSIONS The EAT cluster randomized trial is the largest school-based tobacco-prevention study in Germany conducted to date. Its results will provide important insights with regards to the effectiveness of medical student–delivered smoking prevention programs at school. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPOR DERR1-10.2196/13508

scholarly journals Smoking in Oman: prevalence and characteristics of smokers

2004 ◽  
Vol 10 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 600-609
Author(s):  
A. A. Al Riyami ◽  
M. Afifi
Keyword(s):  
Educational Level ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Current Smoking ◽  
Government Action ◽  
Clean Air ◽  
Former Smokers ◽  
Tobacco Taxation ◽  
Crude Prevalence

We carried out a cross-sectional survey to study the prevalence and the characteristics of current and former smoking among Omani adults. Crude prevalence of current smoking was 7.0% [males 13.4%, females 0.5%] ; 2.3% were former smokers. The overall highest prevalence of current smoking [11.1%] was observed in those 40-49 years [18.7% of males, 0.9% of females]. Older age [>/= 40 years], higher educational level and larger family size were protective against smoking. Mean age for starting smoking was 18.7 years for males and 24.3 years for females. Although smoking prevalence is low in Oman, prevention should be addressed in health education programmes, with the emphasis on heightening awareness in adolescents. Government action, e. g. tobacco taxation, clean air laws and bans on advertising, is also recommended

scholarly journals Long-term trends in smoking prevalence and its socioeconomic inequalities in Korea, 1992–2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngs Chang ◽  
Hee-Yeon Kang ◽  
Dohee Lim ◽  
Hong-Jun Cho ◽  
Young-Ho Khang
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Socioeconomic Inequalities ◽  
Occupational Class ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Tobacco Control Policies ◽  
Prevalence Difference ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Index Of Inequality

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to investigate long-term trends in smoking prevalence and its socioeconomic inequalities in Korea. Methods Data were collected from 10 rounds of the Social Survey of Statistics Korea between 1992 and 2016. A total of 524,866 men and women aged 19 or over were analyzed. Age-adjusted smoking prevalence was calculated according to three major socioeconomic position indicators: education, occupational class, and income. The prevalence difference, prevalence ratio, slope index of inequality (SII), and relative index of inequality (RII) were calculated to examine the magnitude of inequality in smoking. Results Smoking prevalence among men decreased from 71.7% in 1992 to 39.7% in 2016, while smoking prevalence among women decreased from 6.5% in 1992 to 3.3% in 2016. Socioeconomic inequalities in smoking prevalence according to the three socioeconomic position indicators were found in both men and women throughout the study period. In general, absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in smoking, measured by prevalence difference and prevalence ratio for education and occupational class, widened during the study period among Korean men and women. In men, the SII for income increased from 7.6% in 1999 to 10.8% in 2016 and the RII for income also increased from 1.11 in 1999 to 1.31 in 2016. In women, the SII for income increased from 0.1% in 1999 to 2.4% in 2016 and the RII for income increased from 1.39 in 1999 to 2.25 in 2016. Conclusion Pro-rich socioeconomic inequalities in smoking prevalence were found in men and women. Socioeconomic inequalities in smoking have increased in parallel with the implementation of tobacco control policies. Tobacco control policies should be developed to decrease socioeconomic inequalities in cigarette use in Korea.

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