scholarly journals The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Bartosz Kozicki ◽  
◽  
Jarosław Zelkowski ◽  
Szymon Mitkow ◽  
Mariusz Gontarczyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Saudi Arabian ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Middle East Countries ◽  
Military Security ◽  
Time Series Data Analysis ◽  
Klein’S Model ◽  
The Impact

The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.

scholarly journals Effect of exchange rates and gasoline price on export price of Vietnamese coffee

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
To Thi Kim Hong
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gasoline Price ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Time Series Data Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Price fluctuation is not only an important issue to economic research but also to corporate managers, especially in agri-business industry. This research applied time series data analysis with linear models to identify and measure the impact of some factors such as exchange rate and gasoline price on the price of Vietnam's coffee exports in the period 2008-2014. With a cointegration between Vietnamese prices and world prices of coffee, the pairwise Granger test indicates the dependence of Vietnam coffee prices on world prices, but not vice-versa or Vietnam price could not affected world prices. The regression results in this study also estimate that exchange rates and gasoline price would affect export price of Vietnamese coffee. The regression models also suggest that coffee producers improve their knowledge on price signals from export markets. With better communication skills in markets sthrough the Internet, coffee producers and exporters would forecast the changes in export price to help them in production planning and empower them in trading negotiation with foreign trading companies.

scholarly journals Investigating the Dynamic Empirics between Outflow of Remittances and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

2018 ◽  
Vol III (I) ◽  
pp. 98-104
Author(s):  
Taseer Salahuddin ◽  
Muhammad Awais ◽  
Asif Raza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

To meet the developmental goals and fulfill the domestic labor demand of Saudi Arabia, more than 9.5 million skilled, semi-skilled and highly skilled workers from across the world are imported. After the United States of America (USA), it is the second-largest which is responsible for the larger outflow of remittances. This study is an empirical investigation to explore the impact of remittances outflow on the economic growth activity of Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it also tests whether this outflow causes inflation in the Saudi economy. For the sack of empirical investigation, this study utilized annual time series data ranging from 1970 to 2017. Before estimating the shortrun and long-run estimates by the application of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, time-series properties of data are explored using the Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test.

scholarly journals DAMPAK PANDEMI COVID-19 TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN DANA PIHAK KETIGA PADA BANK SYARIAH

El Dinar ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-61
Author(s):  
Hurriah Ali Hasan ◽  
Saidin Mansyur ◽  
Siti Walida Mustamin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Investment Funds ◽  
First Semester ◽  
Time Series Data Analysis ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of contagious of Covid-19 on the growth of Third Party Funds (DPK) in Islamic banks, to see the economic strength during the Covid-19 Pandemic. The analysis was carried out on the financial statements of two Islamic banks, are BNI Syariah and Bank Syariah Mandiri (BSM). By using time series data analysis in the aggregate time of the first semester for the period of January - June and the first month in the second semester in July 2020. The data source is taken from the financial publication monthly report from BNI Syariah and BSM. As a comparison, data for 2018 and 2019 are used in the same month period, so that obtained of the growth trend of DPK in Islamic Bank during normal times and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The results of correlation and comparison analysis, this study found that the Covid-19 pandemic has influenced the trend of public funds in Islamic banks. In choosing fund products at banks, the customer avoid investment risks by reducing deposits in the form of investment funds and prefer Wadiah as safe products. This caused DPK in Islamic banks both BNI Syariah and BSM have significant positive growth for Wadiah and decline in investment funds during the Covid-19 pandemic. This shows that Islamic banking faces financial risks in abnormal situations during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

Does Tax Increment Financing Pass the “But-for” Test in Missouri?

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-202
Author(s):  
Ahmed Rachid El-Khattabi ◽  
T. William Lester
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Kansas City ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Increment Financing ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The use of tax increment financing (TIF) remains a popular, yet highly controversial, tool among policy makers in their efforts to promote economic development. This study conducts a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Missouri’s TIF program, specifically in Kansas City and St. Louis, in creating economic opportunities. We build a time-series data set starting 1990 through 2012 of detailed employment levels, establishment counts, and sales at the census block-group level to run a set of difference-in-differences with matching estimates for the impact of TIF at the local level. Although we analyze the impact of TIF on a wide set of indicators and across various industry sectors, we find no conclusive evidence that the TIF program in either city has a causal impact on key economic development indicators.

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