You Cannot be Serious: The Impact of Accuracy Incentives on Partisan Bias in Reports of Economic Perceptions

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Prior ◽  
Gaurav Sood ◽  
Kabir Khanna
Keyword(s):  
Partisan Bias ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Perceptions

Rational Learners or Impervious Partisans? Economic News and Partisan Bias in Economic Perceptions

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-321
Author(s):  
J. Scott Matthews ◽  
Mark Pickup
Keyword(s):  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Bias Reduction ◽  
Perceptual Bias ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Economic News ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Political Perception ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Perceptions

AbstractDecades of research have established the direct influence of partisanship on voter perception of a host of real-world conditions. Even so, numerous factors have been found to moderate this “partisan bias.” We examine one plausible moderator: the volume of perceptually relevant information that is available in the mass media. Both dissonance-theoretic and motivated-reasoning formulations of partisan bias in political perception suggest that the availability of perceptually relevant information may constrain perceptual bias. Yet this proposition has rarely been investigated systematically. This article investigates the moderation of partisan bias by informational conditions, focusing on the impact of economic news on economic perceptions during five Canadian general elections (1993–2006). Although the overall pattern is mixed, evidence suggests that bias reduction in response to information depends on the broader economic and political context.

scholarly journals Learning With Heterogeneous Misspecified Models: Characterization and Robustness

Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (6) ◽  
pp. 3025-3077 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Aislinn Bohren ◽  
Daniel N. Hauser
Keyword(s):  
Learning Environments ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Simple Criterion ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Misspecified Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Face ◽  
Parametric Specification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Source Of Information

This paper develops a general framework to study how misinterpreting information impacts learning. Our main result is a simple criterion to characterize long‐run beliefs based on the underlying form of misspecification. We present this characterization in the context of social learning, then highlight how it applies to other learning environments, including individual learning. A key contribution is that our characterization applies to settings with model heterogeneity and provides conditions for entrenched disagreement. Our characterization can be used to determine whether a representative agent approach is valid in the face of heterogeneity, study how differing levels of bias or unawareness of others' biases impact learning, and explore whether the impact of a bias is sensitive to parametric specification or the source of information. This unified framework synthesizes insights gleaned from previously studied forms of misspecification and provides novel insights in specific applications, as we demonstrate in settings with partisan bias, overreaction, naive learning, and level‐k reasoning.

The impact of economic perceptions on status consumption: an exploratory study of the moderating role of education

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dora Elizabeth Bock ◽  
Jacqueline Kilsheimer Eastman ◽  
Benjamin McKay
Keyword(s):  
Structural Equation ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Student Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Status Consumption ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
Economic Perceptions

Purpose – Given the economic downturn, the purpose of this study was to determine if a relationship exists between economic perceptions and consumers' motivation to consume for status and if this relationship was moderated by education level. Design/methodology/approach – A stratified random sample of adult consumers in the southeastern USA were surveyed by telephone. The hypotheses were tested utilizing structural equation modeling. Findings – The results indicated that those consumers with a lower level of perceived economic welfare (i.e. see the economy and their family's financial situation as worse this year versus last year) were less motivated to consume for status. Furthermore, this relationship was positively moderated by education. No relationship was found between consumer confidence (i.e. consumers' perceptions of the economy in the future year) and status consumption. The results suggest that those consumers who perceive themselves to be financially better off this year versus last, particularly those more educated, are more motivated to consume for status. Research limitations/implications – The main research limitation was that the sample skewed to be older, female and Caucasian, though the sample did match Census figures for the critical variable of education. Additionally, the phone response rate was 9 percent, but it is important to recognize that this was for a non-student sample. Practical implications – The results suggest that marketers, targeting luxury consumers in the current stagnant economy, aim for more educated consumers who see their economic welfare as improving. This implication stems from the research findings revealing that consumers who feel they are recovering economically from the recent economic downturn, especially those with higher education levels, may more likely be status consumers. Originality/value – With the democratization of luxury there is renewed interest in luxury consumption research. While research suggests there is a relationship between economic conditions and status consumption, few studies have measured consumer economic perceptions in relation to status consumption and none have examined how education may play a moderating role in explaining why people buy luxuries in a tough economic climate.

scholarly journals Is there a partisan bias in the perception of the state of the economy? A comparative investigation of European countries, 2002–2016

2020 ◽  
pp. 019251212091590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Okolikj ◽  
Marc Hooghe
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Comparative Investigation ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
The State ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Perceptions

The literature on economic voting starts from the assumptions that citizens have a sufficiently high level of knowledge about their country’s economic situation, and that they vote according to their perception of the state of the economy. However, these assumptions have been challenged as economic perceptions could be plagued by partisan bias. We use the comparative dataset of the European Social Survey to investigate partisan bias in the perception of economic performance. Firstly, we observe that the economic perceptions of both supporters and opponents of governing parties are strongly related to real-life economic indicators such as gross domestic product growth and unemployment levels. Secondly, we find that shifts in economic performance (growth and unemployment) are strongly associated with similar changes in economic perceptions among both supporters of governing parties and opposition parties. There is, however, a significant but limited partisan bias in economic perceptions in countries with high levels of unemployment.

Partisan Bias in Japan's Single Member Districts

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-58
Author(s):  
WILLY JOU
Keyword(s):  
Third Party ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Independent Candidates

AbstractThe delineation of constituency boundaries and variations in vote distribution across districts often favor certain parties at the expense of others. Applying a hitherto under-utilized formula (Brookes, 1959; Johnston et al., 1999), this study investigates whether the mechanism translating votes into seats in Japan's single-member districts results in systematic partisan advantage that may influence election outcomes. Simulations are conducted for the 2003 and 2005 general elections under two scenarios: where the governing coalition and the main opposition party receive equal vote shares, and where their vote shares are reversed from the actual results. Components of electoral bias are then disaggregated into size and distribution effects, and the impact of malapportionment, electorate size, turnout, and the role of third party/independent candidates on overall electoral bias is examined. Results show that while partisan bias exists, disadvantages toward one party in some components are likely to cancel out benefits derived from others, producing a relatively small net effect. Furthermore, electoral bias in Japan is found to award sectoral rather than partisan seat bonuses.

The Impact of Economic Perceptions on Work-Related Decisions

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadya A. Fouad ◽  
Jane P. Liu ◽  
Elizabeth W. Cotter ◽  
India Gray-Schmiedlin
Keyword(s):  
Work Related ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Perceptions

Closeness Counts: Increasing Precision and Reducing Errors in Mass Election Predictions

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 518-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Quek ◽  
Michael W. Sances
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Political Knowledge ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
2012 Election ◽  
Multiple Constituencies ◽  
Economic Perceptions

Mass election predictions are increasingly used by election forecasters and public opinion scholars. While they are potentially powerful tools for answering a variety of social science questions, existing measures are limited in that they ask about victors rather than voteshares. We show that asking survey respondents to predict voteshares is a viable and superior alternative to asking them to predict winners. After showing respondents can make sensible quantitative predictions, we demonstrate how traditional qualitative forecasts lead to mistaken inferences. In particular, qualitative predictions vastly overstate the degree of partisan bias in election forecasts, and lead to wrong conclusions regarding how political knowledge exacerbates this bias. We also show how election predictions can aid in the use of elections as natural experiments, using the effect of the 2012 election on partisan economic perceptions as an example. Our results have implications for multiple constituencies, from methodologists and pollsters to political scientists and interdisciplinary scholars of collective intelligence.

Economic Expectations and Voting Intentions in the UK, 1979–87: A Pooled Cross-section Approach

1995 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Price ◽  
David Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Objective Condition ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Section Data ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Perceptions

Using pooled cross-section data on over 44,000 individuals, this study simultaneously estimates the effects of individual characteristics, individual economic perceptions and macroeconomic conditions on the propensity of UK voters to support the incumbent Conservative government. The findings on the impact of individual characteristics are consistent with those reported in recent British Election Studies. The findings on economic perceptions and macroeconomic changes suggest that, in the UK at least, voters' prospective economic perceptions are far more important than either their retrospective economic judgements or the objective condition of the economy itself. The results also cast light on the debate about the impact of ‘unusual’ political events. In general, these effects seem to be relatively short-lived: the boost to Conservative popularity engendered by the 1982 Falklands War, for example, seems to have petered out well before the 1983 general election.

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