scholarly journals Learning With Heterogeneous Misspecified Models: Characterization and Robustness

Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (6) ◽  
pp. 3025-3077 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Aislinn Bohren ◽  
Daniel N. Hauser
Keyword(s):  
Learning Environments ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Simple Criterion ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Misspecified Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Face ◽  
Parametric Specification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Source Of Information

This paper develops a general framework to study how misinterpreting information impacts learning. Our main result is a simple criterion to characterize long‐run beliefs based on the underlying form of misspecification. We present this characterization in the context of social learning, then highlight how it applies to other learning environments, including individual learning. A key contribution is that our characterization applies to settings with model heterogeneity and provides conditions for entrenched disagreement. Our characterization can be used to determine whether a representative agent approach is valid in the face of heterogeneity, study how differing levels of bias or unawareness of others' biases impact learning, and explore whether the impact of a bias is sensitive to parametric specification or the source of information. This unified framework synthesizes insights gleaned from previously studied forms of misspecification and provides novel insights in specific applications, as we demonstrate in settings with partisan bias, overreaction, naive learning, and level‐k reasoning.

scholarly journals AIS Data Vulnerability Indicated by a Spoofing Case-Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5015
Author(s):  
Andrej Androjna ◽  
Marko Perkovič ◽  
Ivica Pavic ◽  
Jakša Mišković
Keyword(s):  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Automatic Identification ◽  
Identification System ◽  
Maritime Industry ◽  
Position Information ◽  
Safe Navigation ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Source Of Information

This paper takes a close look at the landscape of the Automatic Identification System (AIS) as a major source of information for maritime situational awareness (MSA) and identifies its vulnerabilities and challenges for safe navigation and shipping. As an important subset of cyber threats affecting many maritime systems, the AIS is subject to problems of tampering and reliability; indeed, the messages received may be inadvertently false, jammed, or intentionally spoofed. A systematic literature review was conducted for this article, complemented by a case study of a specific spoofing event near Elba in December 2019, which confirmed that the typical maritime AIS could be easily spoofed and generate erroneous position information. This intentional spoofing has affected navigation in international waters and passage through territorial waters. The maritime industry is neither immune to cyberattacks nor fully prepared for the risks associated with the use of modern digital systems. Maintaining seaworthiness in the face of the impact of digital technologies requires a robust cybersecurity framework.

scholarly journals Uso de un ambiente virtual de aprendizaje en la ingeniería en sistemas computacionales del Tecnológico de Ciudad Valles como herramienta de apoyo a las clases presenciales

2019 ◽  
pp. 7-14
Author(s):  
Rosa Imelda GARCIA-CHI ◽  
María Antonieta HERNANDEZ ◽  
Nelly Rosina IZAGUIRRE-CÁRDENAS ◽  
Arturo EGUIA-ALVAREZ
Keyword(s):  
Learning Environments ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Learning Strategy ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
The Face ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Teaching Learning ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Student Competencies

The article is the result of an educational research project of the National Technological Institute of Mexico that involves Virtual Learning Environments (AVA). The objective is to determine the impact of using a VPA as a tool in the teaching-learning process of the face-to-face classes of the Ciudad Valles Technology. The methodology is mixed, qualitative and quantitative. The quantitative number determines the number of teachers used by AVA, the number of students in a Blending Learning (B-Learning) course, the number of courses designed in Moodle. In the qualitative, the impact of B-Learning on students is analyzed; determining the degree of motivation and performance that is generated when using AVA and the ability to use information technology to generate their learning strategies. A composite and structural analysis of the AVA used in the institute is presented, the research hypothesis is disclosed: the use of an AVA as a b-learning strategy, improves the level of performance of student competencies compared to students who follow classroom learning strategies. The manner in which the research is conducted, the frame of reference is described and relevant results and conclusions are shown.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Particularities of the independent auditor's report on reliability of accounting (financial) statements for 2019: COVID-19 as qualitatively essential information (Part 2)

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 777-799
Author(s):  
O.I. Shvyreva ◽  
Z.I. Kruglyak ◽  
A.V. Petukh
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Risk Disclosure ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Logical Method ◽  
Annual Reporting ◽  
The Face ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
The Impact

Subject. This article discusses the issues related to the practice of financial reporting in the face of uncertainties caused by the coronavirus contagion, as well as the specifics of the audit strategy and formation of an audit opinion on this reporting. Objectives. The article aims to identify the quality characteristics of financial reporting prepared in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and justify the key aspects of assurance engagement completion in an extremely uncertain epidemiological and economic situation. Methods. For the study, we used an abstract-logical method, content analysis techniques, systematization, and classification. Results. Analyzing the impact of the extremely uncertain epidemiological and economic situation on financial statements, the article clarifies aspects of disclosure of events after the reporting date and threats to business continuity in the annual reporting of economic entities. The article identifies possible alternative procedures and algorithms to obtain proper evidence when it is insufficient in the face of the inability to meet certain audit standards requirements in a remote audit environment. The article defines the impact of COVID-19 risk disclosure on the structure of the audit report and opinion. Relevance. The results of the study can be used in the practical activities of economic entities that prepare financial statements in the face of significant uncertainty, as well as auditors and audit organizations.

Safe development of business and national economy in the face of a pandemic and global recession

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1182-1198
Author(s):  
I.V. Vyakina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Security ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
Graphical Visualization ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Business Support ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Visualization Techniques ◽  
The Impact

Subject. This article deals with the issues related to the national economic security of the State in today's conditions. Objectives. The article aims to develop a set of special measures for additional business support to reduce the impact of restrictions imposed against the background of quarantine and the pandemic spread, and which would help prevent collapse of business entities. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of theoretical, systems, logical, and comparative analyses, and tabular and graphical visualization techniques. Results. The article proposes possible measures to support business aimed at reducing the costs of business entities due to the restrictions caused by the pandemic, that complement and explain the activities proposed by the President and Government of the Russian Federation, taking into account the regional and municipal levels. Conclusions. The uncertain current situation requires constant adjustment and adaptation of public policy in accordance with specific circumstances. Ensuring the country's economic security and sustainability associates with creation of a business organization system that connects public administration tools and business support and development opportunities under the changed environment.

The Impact of Terrorism on Construction Industry in Iraq

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Wadhah Amer Hatem ◽  
Samiaah M. Hassen Al-Tmeemy
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Statistical Procedures ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Suicide Attacks ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact

     Suicide attacks, bombings, explosions became the part of daily life in Iraq. Consequently, the threat of terrorism put the Iraqi construction sector in the face of unique and unusual challenges that not seen on other countries. These challenges can have extensive impact on construction projects. This paper seeks to examine the impact of the terrorist attacks on construction industry and determine the extent to which the impact of terrorism on construction projects in terms of cost, schedule, and quality. This study adapted quantitative and qualitative approaches to collect data using questionnaire survey and interviews, as well as historical data. The study focused on projects that have been the target of terrorist strikes in Diyala governorate. A variety of statistical procedures were employed in data analysis. The results revealed the extent to which terrorist attacks impact construction projects in terms of cost, time, and quality. The results of this study will enhance the awareness of all construction parties to the impact of the terrorist attacks against construction projects. Eventually, this can develop a risk management assessment and assist contractors to properly protect projects and buildings to minimize injuries and fatalities in the event of terrorism.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Globalisation and Inequality in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-89
Author(s):  
Jacques de Jongh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Globalisation has had an unprecedented impact on the development and well-being of societies across the globe. Whilst the process has been lauded for bringing about greater trade specialisation and factor mobility many have also come to raise concerns on its impact in the distribution of resources. For South Africa in particular this has been somewhat of a contentious issue given the country's controversial past and idiosyncratic socio-economic structure. Since 1994 though, considerable progress towards its global integration has been made, however this has largely coincided with the establishment of, arguably, the highest levels of income inequality the world has ever seen. This all has raised several questions as to whether a more financially open and technologically integrated economy has induced greater within-country inequality (WCI). This study therefore has the objective to analyse the impact of the various dimensions of globalisation (economic, social and political) on inequality in South Africa. Secondary annual time series from 1990 to 2018 were used sourced from the World Bank Development indicators database, KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the World Inequality database. By using different measures of inequality (Palma ratios and distribution figures), the study employed two ARDL models to test the long-run relationships with the purpose to ensure the robustness of the results. Likewise, two error correction models (ECM) were used to analyse the short-run dynamics between the variables. As a means of identifying the casual effects between the variables, a Toda-Yamamoto granger causality analysis was utilised. Keywords: ARDL, Inequality, Economic Globalisation; Social Globalisation; South Africa

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

Dampak Insentif Pajak Perumahan Terhadap Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Negara Dan Peningkatan Pendapatan Masyarakat : Kasus Provinsi Papua

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
High Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input

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