scholarly journals Demographics, Labour Market, and Pension Sustainability in Hungary

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-171
Author(s):  
András Olivér Németh ◽  
Petra Németh ◽  
Péter Vékás
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Pension System ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Market Trends ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.

scholarly journals Reversing the Malthusian paradigm on retirement age

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Deboosere ◽  
Hadewijch Vandenheede
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Social ◽  
Productivity Increase ◽  
Il Y A ◽  
Economic Thinking

RésuméLa démographie a toujours influencé la pensée politique. La décision récente d’aug­menter l’âge à la pension dans beaucoup de pays développés est inspirée par l’évo­lution importante de la composition par âge de la population. Mais il y a en réalité peu d’arguments pour augmenter l’âge à la retraite si l’on tient compte de l’ensem­ble des données démographiques et économiques. Une interprétation souvent trop simpliste et même parfois erronée d’indicateurs démographiques contribue à cette démarche. L’utilisation systématique d’indicateurs démographiques dans la discussion sur la viabilité du système des pensions et de la sécurité sociale est selon nous souvent inspirée par la théorie de l’économie de l’offre. Un aspect crucial est le fait que la croissance de la productivité est ignorée ou minimisée. À cet égard, la discussion actuelle présente une profonde similitude avec l’approche Malthusienne de la population.AbstractDemography always influenced political thinking. The recent decision to increase the age of retirement in many high-income countries is driven by a dramatic chan­ge in the age composition of the population. We argue that there is in fact no need to increase the age of retirement and that many aspects of the current evolution both in demography and in economy are overlooked. Moreover, some demographic indicators such as life expectancy or the dependency ratio are often interpreted in a simplistic and erroneous way. The systematic use of demographic indicators to discuss the sustainability of the pension system and of the social security system is in our view often inspired by the supply-side way of economic thinking. A crucial aspect is that productivity increase is ignored or minimalized in the discussion. In this regard the discussion has many similarities with the Malthusian approach of the population question.

scholarly journals Labour Market Trends, Cycles and Outlook

1970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dave Mare
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
The Past ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Market Trends

This paper outlines recent developments in the labour marker, and discusses the likely outlook over coming years. Changes in labour market measures in the past five years have, to varying degrees, been reversals of the changes that occurred in the late 1980s. There are some exceptions to this statement, and differences in the extent of reversal. In this paper we discuss how today's labour market differs from that of the mid-1950, which differences will persist, and what commentators forecast for the coming years.

Does Population Aging Affect Income Inequality?

2021 ◽  
pp. 320-335
Author(s):  
Gürçem Özaytürk ◽  
Ali Eren Alper ◽  
Fındık Özlem Alper
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship

This study analyzes the relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and income inequality over the period 1972-2019 in countries such as the USA, Japan, the UK, France, Germany, Canada, and Italy, which rank top in the population aging, using the Fourier-Shin cointegration test. According to the results, the rise in the elderly dependency ratio of all countries included in the analysis, except for France, has a positive impact on income inequality. The result implying that the rise in the elderly dependency ratio increases the income inequality and renders some policy recommendations possible. Accordingly, the provision of adequate childcare programs and family aids can result in greater labor force participation in the short- and long-run. In addition, a pension system can be developed to lower the elderly dependency ratio, more money can be saved for the retirement period, and working domains can be developed for the post-retirement period.

Interaction Between Population Aging and Technological Innovation: A Chinese Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 971-979
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Xindong Zhao ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Age Dependency ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

Based on the method of unidirectional causality measure, this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term dynamic effects and causality between China’s population aging and technological innovation. According to the empirical results, first, the aging of the population will eventually have a continuous long-term impact, although it has little effect on the technology innovation in the short term. Second, when compared with the old-age dependency ratio, the child-raising ratio has a remarkable unidirectional causal effect on the technological innovation in the short term. Third, when compared with the old-age dependency ratio, the total dependency ratio has a stronger impact on the scientific and technological innovation ability, which is a long-term effect. The finding indicates that the elderly population and the children’s population have a continuous impact on China’s scientific and technological innovation, that is, the increase in social support burden affects the technological innovation for a long time.

Diversification of Labour Market Policy Instruments in the Process of Elderly Unemployed Occupational Activation

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-200
Author(s):  
Monika Maksim ◽  
Zenon Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Labour Market Policy ◽  
Market Policy ◽  
Active Labour ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
System Activation ◽  
The Stability

Extending the economic activity of the elderly is now an important development challenge, especially given the shrinking and ageing of the population and increasing risk to the stability of the pension system. Activation of the elderly unemployed and retaining them in employment is a key priority of labour market policy. The article attempts to analyze the causes of older people’s difficulties in the labour market, reviews active labour market programs targeted to the elderly unemployed while pointing out their pros and cons.  The paper suggests that in case of the elderly unemployed activation there should be complex and individually based approach. It is also recommended to use non‑standard and innovative measures at the stage of diagnosis, participation in programs and after getting employment.

Retirees without pensions and welfare: The social effects of pension privatization in Poland

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 407-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Żuk ◽  
Paweł Żuk
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Social Effects ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Complete Elimination ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Right

This article describes the chaos caused by the 1999 privatization of the pension system in Poland. The recent measures taken by the right-wing populist government of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which reduced the retirement age and announced the complete elimination of ‘open’ (private) pension funds at the end of 2016, have not improved the situation of present and future retirees. Various forecasts show that the elderly will not be able to count on state aid in the future. The future of retired women (who tend to be less economically active) and those employed on ‘junk contracts’, from which social security contributions were not deducted, seems to be completely hopeless.

Labour-Market Integration by Responding to Work Motives: Lessons from a Study of Israeli Ultra-Orthodox Women

2020 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050004
Author(s):  
Yael Goldfarb ◽  
Shoshana Neuman
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Work Motivation ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Occupational Choices ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
Training Programmes ◽  
Work Motives

Low employability among specific populations (e.g. religious/traditional women, the elderly, disabled workers, and immigrants) has unfavourable consequences on the unemployed individual, society, and the state economy. The latter include poverty, a heavy toll on welfare budgets, diminished growth, and an increase in the ‘dependency ratio’. We suggest a rather novel policy (borrowed from the field of Vocational Psychology) that could lead to successful integration into the labour market of low-employability populations: The design of tailor-made training programmes that respond to work motives, coupled with a working environment that caters to special needs/restrictions, and complemented with counselling and monitoring. The suggested strategy is illustrated using a case study of Israeli ultra-Orthodox women, who exhibit lower employment rates than other Israeli women. The motives behind their occupational choices are explored based on data collected by a survey. Factor Analysis is employed to sort out the motives behind their occupational choices, and regression analysis is used to associate job satisfaction with work motivation. Policy implications are suggested based on the findings. There is already some evidence on the successful outcomes of the proposed strategy.

scholarly journals RESEARCH OF SOME ASPECTS ABOUT THE ELDERLY EMPLOYED IN THE LATVIAN LABOUR MARKET

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Irena Silinevica
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
The Self ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Construction Methods ◽  
Social Opportunities ◽  
Market Areas ◽  
Pension Age

The seniors are among the resources to reduce tension in certain labour market areas and promote further economic development. Taking into account the aging population trends, the role of seniors will increase in Latvia’s labour market. The aim of this research study is to explore the self-assessment of the elderly employed about their abilities to work competitively at pre-retirement age and go on to work at pension age. The research has verified some theoretical findings about the elderly people in the labour market by using content analysis, comparative analysis, synthesis, and the abstract and logical construction methods. The self-assessment of the employed aged above 50 about their abilities to compete in labour market is analysed in the research. A survey of the pre-retirement and pension-aged employees is carried out in the research. The main findings of the research are as follows: the development of technologies and the raising standard of living in Latvia creates new social opportunities for pre-retirement and retirement-age people to go on to work. The stereotypes in society on the preretirement and retirement-age employees are out of date and need to be changed. There are recommendations for improvement of competitiveness of the elderly employed in the labour market developed in the paper.

scholarly journals Retirement Age: One size does not fit all

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-147
Author(s):  
Margarida Rego ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Early Retirement ◽  
Pension System ◽  
European Population ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Age Dependency ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups ◽  
Health Aging ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio ◽  
Number Of Individuals

The European population is aging and, by 2050, Portugal will face a most alarming scenario, with an old-age dependency ratio — i.e. the number of individuals aged 65 or older as a share of the active age population — above 65%, almost double the figure for 2016. Portugal has already undertaken measures to improve the financial resilience of the pension system, but still lacks a better understanding of its social sustainability. We resort to the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to study individual heterogeneity on pension preferences and find that poor health and unemployment are, together with age and the length of the contributory career, key elements to understand early retirement, while late retirement is associated with higher income. Identifying socioeconomic groups with incentives to deviate from the statutory retirement age is crucial to policy makers currently debating the retirement age in Portugal.

scholarly journals An Attempt to Identify Factors Influencing Retirement Decisions in Poland

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (336) ◽  
pp. 43-59
Author(s):  
Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Retirement Decisions

Discussions on how to prevent negative economic consequences of ageing of societies have resulted in the reforms that should prolong labour market participation and postpone retirement of longer living generations. Pension systems are among those reformed most frequently. Also in Poland – since the beginning of economic transformation in the early 1990s – retirement rules have changed many times. Pre‑retirement benefits and allowances have been introduced to help those who became unemployed at an older age. Since 2009 early retirement is not possible any more (with some exceptions), the standard retirement age continued to increase since 2013 and then it decreased again in 2017. The aim of the paper is to analyse the driving forces of retirement in Poland. Such knowledge is important to develop proper policies and expectations about labour supply decisions. We have analysed what factors influenced retirement decisions in the last decade, with a special focus on pension system regulations. The main data sources used in this paper are Labour Force Survey (BAEL) data for the years 2005–2016 and the Social Insurance Institution statistics. Probabilities of retirement from the labour force were presented and discussed. Then, individual BAEL data for persons aged 50–74 in the years 2013–2016 were used to estimate logistic regression models of odds of labour market inactivity. The results show that education or health status are significant factors influencing retirement decisions in Poland. Additionally, older workers react to economic incentives for retirement created by the pension system, mainly the retirement age.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document