The Form of Real Estate Risk: an Application to French Commercial Property Portfolios

2004 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 360
Author(s):  
Roddy Allan ◽  
Ervi Liusman ◽  
Teddy Lu ◽  
Desmond Tsang

This paper utilizes timely proprietary data to examine the contemporary impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on commercial property rent dynamics in the Asia–Pacific region. Given that the Asia–Pacific region was the first to be impacted by the public health crisis, it is important to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the real estate markets in this region and to assess how the region has been recovering since then. Our regression analysis, controlling for different macroeconomic fundamentals and city and property type fixed effects, documents substantial declines in rents of approximately 15% during the first six months of 2020 across the Asia–Pacific commercial property market. We further observe that the most significant declines in rent occur in regions where exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic is the more severe, and in the retail property sector, where we have been observing continued declines of over 30%, with little recovery as of the second quarter of 2020. In additional analysis, we examine capital values and show that while capital targeting the retail property sector has been muted, there is some evidence showing capital flows into the residential and industrial sectors. We also show that fiscal stimuli imposed by governments have moderated the adverse impact of the pandemic. Overall, our study shows that while the effect of the COVID-19 public health crisis is detrimental to commercial real estate, its impact varies significantly across different regions and property sectors.


Author(s):  
Thomas A. Knetsch

Abstract The compilation of commercial property price indices (CPPIs) is challenging. Policymakers urge for timely, reliable and comprehensive data. In Germany, lack of data prevents the calculation of official figures by the national statistical authority. Different applications of price indices need different definitions of commercial real estate. CPPIs according to these definitions are constructed on the basis of existing data for 127 German towns and cities (that cover about one-third of German population). The overall price developments revealed by the various indices are rather similar in terms of central time series characteristics, while differences in detail can be explained by their specific compositions. Price increases for all definitions have been strongest in the seven largest cities. The definitions tend to lead to more marked differences for medium-sized towns.


2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Falkenbach

The Finnish commercial property market internationalised rapidly in the beginning of the 21st century. According to the portfolio theory and previous research on international property investments, the main motivation factor driving international real estate investments is the possibility to reach diversification benefits. The paper discusses the diversification benefits offered by the Finnish property market in its early years of internationalisation. As international real estate investors in the Finnish property market include investors with both real estate only, as well as mixed‐asset portfolios, the diversification benefits are studied both in terms of a Finnish mixed-asset portfolio, as well as international real estate portfolio. Santruka XXI a. pradžioje Suomijos komercinio nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje sparčiai vyko tarptautiniai procesai. Remiantis portfelio teorija ir ankstesniais tyrimais apie tarptautines investicijas i nekilnojamaji turta, pag rindinis veiksnys, kuris skatina tarptautines nekilnojamojo turto investicijas ‐ tai galimybe gauti diversifi kacijos teikiama nauda. Darbe aptariama, kokia nauda siūle Suomijos nekilnojamojo turto rinka ankstyvaisiais internacionalizacijos metais. Kadangi kai kurie Suomijos nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje veikiantys tarptautiniai nekilnojamojo turto investuotojai užsiima tik nekilnojamuoju turtu, o yra ir tokiu, kurie turi mišraus turto portfelius, diversifi kacijos nauda nagrinejama ir pagal Suomijos mišraus turto portfeli, ir pagal tarptautini nekilnojamojo turto portfeli.


2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (04) ◽  
pp. 1640002 ◽  
Author(s):  
THIERRY THEURILLAT ◽  
JAMES H. LENZER ◽  
HONGYU ZHAN

This paper provides a heuristic framework to address issues about China’s ongoing urbanization in relation to the role of land and built environment as triggers for economic growth and to the increasing financialization of urban production. While a dominant field of literature highlights the interrelation between land and capital within a specific institutional setting between Central and local governments, it argues to include other key linkages between infrastructures, property development and finance to understand China’s recent exponential urban growth. It first places the current consequent local governments’ debt into perspective along with the evolution of financial circuits for urban infrastructures resulting from Central Government policy and regulation changes. Next, and in line with the real estate literature that highlights the key role of demand, it develops an original understanding of the financialization of urban production from the perspective of China’s property industry. Besides the role of homeownership policies since 1998 which boosted urban production based on use value, various ways of the transformation of property into financial assets have occurred. Chinese households as the main investors have not only been able to directly invest in housing and in non-housing by purchasing flats or commercial property but indirectly by increasing investments in special purpose vehicles such as trust-bank and funds finance and new kinds of investment platforms. In both cases, Central Government macropolicies, both stimulating and restricting from 2008–2016, have gone in hand with increasing financialization processes for local governments’ debt, urban infrastructure financing and real estate.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin JONES ◽  
Nicola LIVINGSTONE ◽  
Neil DUNSE

This paper examines changing transactions activity and liquidity over thirty years in the UK. It reviews the multi-dimensional concept of liquidity analysis and demonstrates that it is not just a function of the time necessary to sell an asset, a typical real estate perspective. Instead liquidity is defined in terms of transactions activity. The paper then hypothesises that urban change and an increased information base has contributed to a more active management of real estate portfolios and increased liquidity. Superimposed on this long term trend it is also hypothesised that property cycles create rise and falls in liquidity. The empirical core quantifies the changing nature of liquidity and transactions activity over thirty years from 1981 based on the IPD database. It confirms the hypothesised substantial rise in liquidity but increasing variability in the level of transactions activity from one year to the next queries the cyclical liquidity hypothesis. This is supported by causality tests. Over the last two decades a short term opportunity driven real estate investment culture appears to have emerged stimulated by the increased churn of properties, partly the consequence of the pace of urban change. It has brought greater volatility to the commercial real estate market.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Cameron Saenz

This comment explores the evolution of Title III of the Americans with Disabilities Act (“ADA”) and argues for a new and more effective implementation of this important anti-discrimination law through the real estate industry. First, this comment discusses the intricacies of the ADA, including its revisions over time and impactful legislation it has spawned. Second, this comment addresses current practical and legal challenges to enforcement of Title III of the ADA, including commercial property owners’ lack of understanding ADA responsibilities, serial litigation, and standing in courts. Finally, this comment proposes a new emphasis on ADA enforcement within the real estate industry. Such focus would obviate the need for many private lawsuits, place responsibility for ADA enforcement on parties involved in commercial real estate transactions and result in more effective implementation of both the spirit and letter of the ADA.


2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 251-268
Author(s):  
Aliane Vieira de Castro ◽  
Gema Ramírez Pacheco ◽  
Fco. Javier Neila González

Sustainability is no longer a new concept. However, applying, measuring and reporting on the sustainability initiative is still a somewhat confused and subjective issue. There is a huge variety of sustainability guidelines and green building schemes of differing natures, meanings and wordings. Despite this, there is no one guideline providing a crossreference between corporate social responsibility and green building performance to help the commercial property market completely incorporate sustainability into their activities. Therefore, this paper intends to link sustainability, real estate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and sustainable building in order to help companies internalise this concept in all areas of their operations aligning it with their strategic planning. From desk-based research, this proposal examines and compares key aspects of the main schemes in existence, which are currently evolving in the definition, assessment and report of sustainability at the corporate and built environment level. This approach provides key information to help professionals get a better understanding of the specific changes which sustainability brings about in their corporate process, strategies, investment decisions, daily business operations as well as their property management. The insights presented here can support real estate companies to develop comprehensive communication flows and tools for the measurement and disclosure of sustainability data.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Giannarelli ◽  
Piyush Tiwari

PurposeThis paper examines the extent of the short-run relationship between Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) and direct real estate returns on both a commercial property sector and a prime and secondary grade basis, i.e. a subsector basis.Design/methodology/approachTwo-step methodology is used. First, we identify the dynamic interdependencies between A-REITs and each commercial property subsector to determine whether the returns of A-REITs lead each subsector or vice versa. Second, short-run deviations between these asset returns are estimated by measuring their individual response behaviours to changes in key economic and financial market factors that are expected to influence these returns.FindingsResults suggest that each subsector shares a unique relationship to A-REITs, given each prime and secondary grade commercial property return series varies in behaviour. Some property subsector returns can be predicted by movements in A-REIT returns, whereas returns for others move independent to changes in A-REITs. Similarly, some subsectors commove with A-REITs in response to changes in certain market factors, whereas others diverge. As such, these findings have practical significance to fund managers and portfolio selection, as each commercial subsector embodies its own exposure to A-REITs and vulnerabilities to market forces. Subsectors that commove with A-REITs in response to certain market forces may be used as substitutes in a portfolio. Alternatively, subsectors that diverge from A-REITs in response to market forces may offer diversification benefits when combined.Practical implicationsThese findings extend beyond existing research to offer critical decision-making guidance at the acquisition level, as fund managers may more closely consider the impact that prime or secondary grade properties within a given commercial sector may have on a portfolio that consists of public and private Australian real estate. Ultimately, a more informed acquisition may be carried out as consideration of a property's asset grade allows for a deeper insight into the property's risk profile and its anticipated short-run impact on a portfolio.Originality/valueThis paper extends previous studies that focus mostly on aggregate or sector-level returns by measuring REIT and real estate dynamics at the subsector level, allowing for practical significance at not only the portfolio level but crucially at the acquisition level, a pivotal decision-making stage for fund managers. This is also the first paper to study REIT and real estate causality and response patterns to changes in market factors at the Australian sector level.


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