scholarly journals PASIRENKAMO RIZIKOS LYGIO PASTOVUMAS ĮVAIRIOSE SPRENDIMŲ SITUACIJOSE

Psichologija ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 7-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auksė Endriulaitienė ◽  
Vaclovas Martišius
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Vilnius University ◽  
Social Scientific ◽  
The Impact

Kadangi gyvename didžiulio nerimo ir netikrumo laikais, pastaruoju metu socialinių mokslų atstovų domėjimasis rizika smarkiai padidėjo. Pagrindinė teorija, analizuojanti rizikingus sprendimus, yra D. Kahnemano ir A. Tversky?o sukurta prospektų teorija, kuri akcentuoja situacijos veiksnius, nulemiančius sprendimo rizikos lygį. Prieštaringi tyrimų rezultatai paskatino psichologus iškelti mintį, kad žmonės turi tam tikrą asmenybės savybę - polinkį rizikuoti. Šio tyrimo tikslas - nustatyti, ar yra įvairiose sprendimų situacijose pasirenkamo rizikos lygio, kuris gali būti asmenybės bruožo - polinkio rizikuoti rodiklis, ryšys. Tyrime dalyvavo 262 Vilniaus ir Vytauto Didžiojo universitetų studentai; jie pildė Pasirinkimo dilemų klausimyną bei Sprendimų priėmimo stiliaus skalę. Tyrimo rezultatai atskleidė, kad rizikos lygis, pasirenkamas įvairiose sprendimų situacijose, yra santykinai pastovus dydis ir gali būti susijęs su asmenybės bruožu - polinkiu rizikuoti. Taigi gauti tyrimo duomenys leidžia diskutuoti su tais psichologais, kurie ypač akcentuoja situacijos svarbą priimant rizikingus sprendimus ir nuvertina asmenybės bruožų įtaką žmogaus pasirinkimams. THE STABILITY OF RISK LEVEL ACROSS VARIOUS DECISION SITUATIONSAuksė Endriulaitienė, Vaclovas Martišius SummaryFew would dispute that we are living at a time of high anxiety and uncertainty. That's why in recent years, social scientific interest in risk has increased enormously. The main theory that explains human decision processes in the face of risk is Prospect theory of D. Kahneman and A. Tversky. It emphasizes the impact of situation upon human risk taking. The contradictory results from the investigations in the perspective of human trait theory give the challenge to the prospect theory and raise the assumption that people have the personality trait - propensity to risk that could explain at least the part of human risky decision making and risk taking behavior. The present investigation aims to find if the decision risk level is stable across various decision situations and could be the index of human propensity to risk. The subjects were 262 students from Vytautas Magnus University and Vilnius University in Lithuania; they completed Choice Dilemma Questionnaire (Kogan, Wallach, 1964) and The Scale of General Decision Making Style (Scott, Bruce, 1995). The results showed that correlation coefficients among risk levels in various decision situations were high and significant. So risk level was stable across the situations and could be related to the personality disposition - propensity to risk. The implications of results and limitations of the study were discussed.

scholarly journals When imitating successful others fails: Accidentally successful exemplars inspire risky decisions and can hamper performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (6) ◽  
pp. 941-956
Author(s):  
Wijnand AP van Tilburg ◽  
Nikhila Mahadevan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Influence ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Gambling Behaviour ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Risky Behaviour ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
The Impact

We examined the impact of viewing exemplars on people’s behaviour in risky decision-making environments. Specifically, we tested if people disproportionally choose to view and then imitate the behaviour of successful (vs. unsuccessful) others, which in the case of risky decision-making increases risk-taking and can hamper performance. In doing so, our research tested how a fundamental social psychological process (social influence) interacts with a fundamental statistical phenomenon (regression to the mean) to produce biases in decision-making. Experiment 1 ( N = 96) showed that people indeed model their own behaviour after that of a successful exemplar, resulting in more risky behaviour and poorer outcomes. Experiment 2 ( N = 208) indicated that people disproportionately choose to examine and then imitate most successful versus least successful exemplars. Experiment 3 ( N = 381) replicated Experiment 2 in a context where participants were offered the freedom to examine any possible exemplar, or no exemplar whatsoever, and across different incentive conditions. The results have implications for decision-making in a broad range of social contexts, such as education, health, and finances where risk-taking can have detrimental outcomes, and they may be particularly helpful to understand the role of social influence in gambling behaviour.

scholarly journals Dopaminergic drug effects on probability weighting during risky decision-making

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karita E. Ojala ◽  
Lieneke K. Janssen ◽  
Mahur M. Hashemi ◽  
Monique H. M. Timmer ◽  
Dirk E. M. Geurts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Weighting ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Placebo Condition ◽  
Pathological Gamblers ◽  
Dopaminergic Drug

AbstractDopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioural addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behaviour. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighing during decision-making. Healthy controls (n = 21) and pathological gamblers (n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind, counter-balanced, design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e. they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although in the placebo condition, gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision-making.Significance statementDopamine has been implicated in risky decision-making and gambling addiction, but the exact mechanisms underlying this influence remain partly elusive. Here we tested the hypothesis that dopamine modulates subjective probability weighting, by examining the effect of a dopaminergic drug on risk-taking behaviour, both in healthy individuals and pathological gamblers. We found that selectively blocking dopamine D2/D3 receptors diminished the typically observed distortion of winning probabilities, characterized by an overweighting of low probabilities and underweighting of high probabilities. This made participants more linear in their subjective estimation of probabilities, and thus more rational in their decision-making behaviour. Healthy participants and pathological gamblers did not differ in their risk-taking behaviour, except in the placebo condition in which gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities.

scholarly journals Impact of Cannabinoid Type 1 Receptor Modulation on Risky Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy G. Freels ◽  
Anna E. Liley ◽  
Daniel B. K. Gabriel ◽  
Nicholas W. Simon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Neural Substrates ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Cannabinoid Type 1 Receptor ◽  
Receptor Modulation ◽  
Choice Latency ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTRecent changes in policy regarding cannabis in the U.S. have been accompanied by an increase in the prevalence of cannabis use and a reduction in the perceived harms associated with consumption. However, little is understood regarding the effects of cannabinoids on cognitive processes. Given that deficient risk-taking is commonly observed in individuals suffering from substance use disorders (SUDs), we assessed the impact of manipulating cannabinoid type 1 receptors (CB1Rs; the primary target for Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol in the brain) on punishment-based risk-taking using the risky decision-making task (RDT) in male Long-Evans rats. The RDT measures preference for small, safe rewards over large, risky rewards associated with an escalating chance of foot shock. Systemic bidirectional CB1R manipulation with a CB1R agonist, CB1R antagonist, and FAAH inhibitor (which increases overall endocannabinoid tone) did not alter overt risk-taking in the RDT. Interestingly, direct CB1R agonism, but not indirect CB1R stimulation or CB1R blockade, resulted in reduction in latency to make risky choices while not altering safe choice latency. Our findings suggest that CB1R activation expedites engagement in punishment based risk-taking without affecting overall preference for risky vs. safe options. This indicates that risk preference and rate of deliberation for risk-taking are influenced by distinct neural substrates, an important consideration for development of precise treatments targeting the aberrant risk-taking typical of SUD symptomology.

The influence of romantic partners on male risk-taking

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 1405-1415
Author(s):  
Karol Silva ◽  
Jason Chein ◽  
Laurence Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Context ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Romantic Partners ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Romantic Partner ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Attractive Female ◽  
The Impact

Studies show that young men’s tendency to take risks may be exacerbated or attenuated in different social contexts. Despite widespread evidence that social context influences young men’s risk-taking, few studies have examined the impact of romantic partners on risky decision-making. The present study examined risk-taking among young men in relationships with women ( n = 134, ages 18–24) randomly assigned to be tested alone ( n = 47), in the presence of their romantic partner ( n = 44), or in the presence of an attractive female stranger ( n = 43). The presence of a romantic partner diminished young men’s tendency to take risks. Findings demonstrate that a dampening effect on risk-taking is attributable to the romantic partner’s presence and not merely due to knowledge of being in a relationship.

scholarly journals Longshot or Favorite: The Ending Effect in Investment Decisions

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Wang ◽  
JiaYuan Zhang ◽  
Cai Xing
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Psychological Consequences ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Safe Option ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision

The ending effect describes the phenomenon that at the end of a series of repeated risky decision-making tasks, participants become more likely to engage in risk-taking behavior. Past research has suggested that the ending effect might be caused by a motivational shift induced by changes in time perception. Previous studies mainly tested this phenomenon in a binary decision-making setting (e.g., a decision-making task usually includes two alternatives). However, none of these prior studies included safe options and risky options that differed in risk levels. To address this knowledge gap, the present study replicated the ending effect in a repeated decision-making task that included both a safe option and risky options that differed in risk levels (N = 104). We found that at the end of the decision-making task, participants became more likely to engage in risk-taking and to favor the option with the highest risk. Further, we found that the investment likelihood and investment amount of high-risk options both increased significantly at the ending. In addition, a shift in favoring the safe option emerged in the noninformed condition at the end. We also found that the emotional motivation in the last round could predict the increased preference for high-risk at the ending. This study extended previous findings on the ending effect by adopting a more complex decision-making scenario and, more broadly, helped further our understanding of the psychological consequences of perceived endings.

scholarly journals Optimize the Banker’s Multi-Stage Decision-Making and the Mechanism of Pay Contract Influencing on Bank Default Risk in the Long-Term Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1400
Author(s):  
Tianyi Ma ◽  
Minghui Jiang ◽  
Xuchuan Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, researchers have been devoted to illustrating the correlation between bankers’ pay contracts and a bank’s risk-taking behavior where corporate governance is concerned, especially throughout the past four decades and by using empirical analysis. Despite being a widespread concern, the causality of this relationship is not thoroughly understood. We initiate this research by modeling bankers’ multi-stage decisions of option investment and bond investment from the perspective of theoretical analysis, and by analyzing the function image results using data from Wells Fargo & Co. from the ExecuComp, BvD Orbis, and CRSP-COMPUSTAT databases. We aim to deeply explore the mechanism of how compensation influencing on risk. We are the first to find that it has a “risk cap”, which is the optimal risk level to maximize the return of decision-making. We are also the first to discover the optimal decision coefficient level to maximize the decision return, during which the internal causes and mechanisms of the impact of bankers’ compensation on a bank’s default risk are revealed. We also illustrate the influence of the number of periods. We expect our findings to provide advice for establishing policies when designing pay contracts.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

Modeling the Effects of Sleep Deprivation on Real-Time Risky Decision-Making

1998 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 330-334
Author(s):  
Joshua B. Hurwitz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Distance Information ◽  
Driving Task ◽  
Response Choices

Increased real-time risk-taking under sleep loss could be marked by changes in risk perception or acceptance. Risk-perception processes are those involved in estimating real-time parameters such as the speeds and distances of hazardous objects. Risk-acceptance processes relate to response choices given risk estimates. Risk-taking under fatigue was studied using a simulated intersection-crossing driving task in which subjects decided when it was safe to cross an intersection as an oncoming car approached from the cross street. The subjects performed this task at 3-hour intervals over a 36-hour period without sleep. Results were modeled using a model of real-time risky decision making that has perceptual components that process speed, time and distance information, and a decisional component for accepting risk. Results showed that varying a parameter for the decisional component across sessions best accounted for variations in performance relating to time of day.

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