Applying prospect theory to pilot weather‐related decision‐making: The impact of monetary and time considerations on risk taking behaviour

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-698
Author(s):  
Stephen Walmsley ◽  
Andrew Gilbey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals PASIRENKAMO RIZIKOS LYGIO PASTOVUMAS ĮVAIRIOSE SPRENDIMŲ SITUACIJOSE

Psichologija ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 7-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auksė Endriulaitienė ◽  
Vaclovas Martišius
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Vilnius University ◽  
Social Scientific ◽  
The Impact

Kadangi gyvename didžiulio nerimo ir netikrumo laikais, pastaruoju metu socialinių mokslų atstovų domėjimasis rizika smarkiai padidėjo. Pagrindinė teorija, analizuojanti rizikingus sprendimus, yra D. Kahnemano ir A. Tversky?o sukurta prospektų teorija, kuri akcentuoja situacijos veiksnius, nulemiančius sprendimo rizikos lygį. Prieštaringi tyrimų rezultatai paskatino psichologus iškelti mintį, kad žmonės turi tam tikrą asmenybės savybę - polinkį rizikuoti. Šio tyrimo tikslas - nustatyti, ar yra įvairiose sprendimų situacijose pasirenkamo rizikos lygio, kuris gali būti asmenybės bruožo - polinkio rizikuoti rodiklis, ryšys. Tyrime dalyvavo 262 Vilniaus ir Vytauto Didžiojo universitetų studentai; jie pildė Pasirinkimo dilemų klausimyną bei Sprendimų priėmimo stiliaus skalę. Tyrimo rezultatai atskleidė, kad rizikos lygis, pasirenkamas įvairiose sprendimų situacijose, yra santykinai pastovus dydis ir gali būti susijęs su asmenybės bruožu - polinkiu rizikuoti. Taigi gauti tyrimo duomenys leidžia diskutuoti su tais psichologais, kurie ypač akcentuoja situacijos svarbą priimant rizikingus sprendimus ir nuvertina asmenybės bruožų įtaką žmogaus pasirinkimams. THE STABILITY OF RISK LEVEL ACROSS VARIOUS DECISION SITUATIONSAuksė Endriulaitienė, Vaclovas Martišius SummaryFew would dispute that we are living at a time of high anxiety and uncertainty. That's why in recent years, social scientific interest in risk has increased enormously. The main theory that explains human decision processes in the face of risk is Prospect theory of D. Kahneman and A. Tversky. It emphasizes the impact of situation upon human risk taking. The contradictory results from the investigations in the perspective of human trait theory give the challenge to the prospect theory and raise the assumption that people have the personality trait - propensity to risk that could explain at least the part of human risky decision making and risk taking behavior. The present investigation aims to find if the decision risk level is stable across various decision situations and could be the index of human propensity to risk. The subjects were 262 students from Vytautas Magnus University and Vilnius University in Lithuania; they completed Choice Dilemma Questionnaire (Kogan, Wallach, 1964) and The Scale of General Decision Making Style (Scott, Bruce, 1995). The results showed that correlation coefficients among risk levels in various decision situations were high and significant. So risk level was stable across the situations and could be related to the personality disposition - propensity to risk. The implications of results and limitations of the study were discussed.

scholarly journals When imitating successful others fails: Accidentally successful exemplars inspire risky decisions and can hamper performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (6) ◽  
pp. 941-956
Author(s):  
Wijnand AP van Tilburg ◽  
Nikhila Mahadevan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Influence ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Gambling Behaviour ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Risky Behaviour ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
The Impact

We examined the impact of viewing exemplars on people’s behaviour in risky decision-making environments. Specifically, we tested if people disproportionally choose to view and then imitate the behaviour of successful (vs. unsuccessful) others, which in the case of risky decision-making increases risk-taking and can hamper performance. In doing so, our research tested how a fundamental social psychological process (social influence) interacts with a fundamental statistical phenomenon (regression to the mean) to produce biases in decision-making. Experiment 1 ( N = 96) showed that people indeed model their own behaviour after that of a successful exemplar, resulting in more risky behaviour and poorer outcomes. Experiment 2 ( N = 208) indicated that people disproportionately choose to examine and then imitate most successful versus least successful exemplars. Experiment 3 ( N = 381) replicated Experiment 2 in a context where participants were offered the freedom to examine any possible exemplar, or no exemplar whatsoever, and across different incentive conditions. The results have implications for decision-making in a broad range of social contexts, such as education, health, and finances where risk-taking can have detrimental outcomes, and they may be particularly helpful to understand the role of social influence in gambling behaviour.

Influence of Impulsivity During Decision-making in Regular Cannabis Users

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. S205-S205
Author(s):  
V. Laprevote ◽  
A.L. Devin ◽  
B. Blanc ◽  
R. Schwan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Iowa Gambling Task ◽  
Cannabis Use ◽  
Healthy Controls ◽  
Delay Aversion ◽  
Gambling Task ◽  
Competing Interest ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionRegular cannabis use is associated with cognitive impairments, including impaired decision making measured by the Iowa Gambling Task. The question remains whether the impulsivity measured in regular cannabis users may participate to impaired decision making. Interestingly, the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) is a computerized gambling task allows to differentiate risk taking and impulsivity when making a decision.AimsThis study aims at separately exploring the impact of regular cannabis use on risk taking and impulsivity during decision making process.ObjectivesTo do so, we compared the performance of regular cannabis users and healthy controls during the CGT.MethodsForty-three regular cannabis users (> 7 units/week) with a cannabis use disorder (CUD), 8 non-CUD regular cannabis users and 30 healthy controls were recruited. Decision-making was assessed using the CGT. The following outcomes were considered: Delay aversion score, Overall proportion bet, quality of decision making, risk taking and risk adjustment.ResultsThe analysis on delay aversion score showed a group effect (F = 3.839, P = 0.026) but no effect on other CGT variables. This effect was explained by the fact that cannabis CUD users had a higher delay aversion score than healthy controls and non-CUD cannabis users.ConclusionsIn this study, CUD cannabis users had an increased impulsivity but no increase of risk taking and quality of decision-making. Future work should include the CGT with a clinical scale to evaluate impulsivity and a motor inhibition task to understand if the impairment observed relates to cognitive or motor abilities.Disclosure of interestThe authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

scholarly journals Dopaminergic drug effects on probability weighting during risky decision-making

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karita E. Ojala ◽  
Lieneke K. Janssen ◽  
Mahur M. Hashemi ◽  
Monique H. M. Timmer ◽  
Dirk E. M. Geurts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Weighting ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Placebo Condition ◽  
Pathological Gamblers ◽  
Dopaminergic Drug

AbstractDopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioural addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behaviour. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighing during decision-making. Healthy controls (n = 21) and pathological gamblers (n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind, counter-balanced, design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e. they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although in the placebo condition, gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision-making.Significance statementDopamine has been implicated in risky decision-making and gambling addiction, but the exact mechanisms underlying this influence remain partly elusive. Here we tested the hypothesis that dopamine modulates subjective probability weighting, by examining the effect of a dopaminergic drug on risk-taking behaviour, both in healthy individuals and pathological gamblers. We found that selectively blocking dopamine D2/D3 receptors diminished the typically observed distortion of winning probabilities, characterized by an overweighting of low probabilities and underweighting of high probabilities. This made participants more linear in their subjective estimation of probabilities, and thus more rational in their decision-making behaviour. Healthy participants and pathological gamblers did not differ in their risk-taking behaviour, except in the placebo condition in which gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities.

The Impact of Sexual Arousal on Sexual Risk-Taking and Decision-Making in Men and Women

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shayna Skakoon-Sparling ◽  
Kenneth M. Cramer ◽  
Paul A. Shuper
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sexual Risk ◽  
Sexual Arousal ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Sexual Risk Taking ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Impact of Cannabinoid Type 1 Receptor Modulation on Risky Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy G. Freels ◽  
Anna E. Liley ◽  
Daniel B. K. Gabriel ◽  
Nicholas W. Simon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Neural Substrates ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Cannabinoid Type 1 Receptor ◽  
Receptor Modulation ◽  
Choice Latency ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTRecent changes in policy regarding cannabis in the U.S. have been accompanied by an increase in the prevalence of cannabis use and a reduction in the perceived harms associated with consumption. However, little is understood regarding the effects of cannabinoids on cognitive processes. Given that deficient risk-taking is commonly observed in individuals suffering from substance use disorders (SUDs), we assessed the impact of manipulating cannabinoid type 1 receptors (CB1Rs; the primary target for Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol in the brain) on punishment-based risk-taking using the risky decision-making task (RDT) in male Long-Evans rats. The RDT measures preference for small, safe rewards over large, risky rewards associated with an escalating chance of foot shock. Systemic bidirectional CB1R manipulation with a CB1R agonist, CB1R antagonist, and FAAH inhibitor (which increases overall endocannabinoid tone) did not alter overt risk-taking in the RDT. Interestingly, direct CB1R agonism, but not indirect CB1R stimulation or CB1R blockade, resulted in reduction in latency to make risky choices while not altering safe choice latency. Our findings suggest that CB1R activation expedites engagement in punishment based risk-taking without affecting overall preference for risky vs. safe options. This indicates that risk preference and rate of deliberation for risk-taking are influenced by distinct neural substrates, an important consideration for development of precise treatments targeting the aberrant risk-taking typical of SUD symptomology.

Perceptions and Framing of Risk, Uncertainty, Loss, and Failure in Entrepreneurship

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Kimberly M. Green
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Organizational Innovation ◽  
Mental Accounting ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Learning From Failure ◽  
Innovation And Change

Research indicates that perceptions of risk and loss affect decision-making. Entrepreneurship presents a context in which risk, failure, and loss frequently frame decisions. This paper presents a review of the entrepreneurship literature that is grounded in Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 article on prospect theory. The theory's contribution to the understanding of how the framing of losses affects decisions offers a useful foundation for considering streams of research in entrepreneurship and small business, given that the prospects for loss and failure are high in these endeavors. This review identifies 79 articles and organizes them into four broad themes: risk-taking perspectives of the entrepreneur and stakeholders, aspirations and reference points, organizational innovation and change, and learning from failure. The review concludes by considering the future research potential in the topics of regret, mental accounting, and an understanding of competitors.

Impact of Socialized Uncertainty on Group Decision Making

2019 ◽  
pp. 547-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth David Strang ◽  
Narasimha Rao Vajjhala
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
University Students ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Controlled Experiment ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Complex Project ◽  
Decision Making Behavior ◽  
The Impact

Many stakeholders in society are concerned about the effectiveness of decision making behavior for our future generation of leaders. Risk taking behavior has been studied in the context of cultural factors (including gender) or decision making but rarely have both of these dimensions been examined simultaneously especially with emerging business leaders. Decision making behavior has not been studied at the group level of analysis in the context of socialized culture using samples of young emerging executives. Therefore, the authors conducted a controlled experiment with senior university students to test the impact of risk taking culture and gender on group decision making behavior in a complex project. In their experiment gender did not impact decision making behavior but the socialized uncertainty was a statistically significant casual factor. The authors conducted a controlled experiment with senior university students to test the impact of risk taking culture and gender on group decision making behavior in a complex project. Although their results agreed with the literature, one finding was completely opposite from their hypothesis. In the authors' experiment, the participant's gender did not impact decision making behavior but the socialized uncertainty factor was statistically significant in the logistic regression models.

Prospect Theory and Political Decision-Making

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janice Gross Stein ◽  
Lior Sheffer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decision Making

Prospect theory has been adopted unevenly across different domains of political decision-making. Research drawing on prospect theory has contributed to important advances in the understanding of processes of elite decision-making in foreign policy and domestic politics. Political scientists have also contributed several important extensions of and qualifications to prospect theory that augment the original theoretical framework and are applicable in other disciplines. The next wave of research needs to be far more careful in specifying the scope conditions that have been the focus of research in behavioral economics. Scholars will also have to pay closer attention to the distribution of probability estimates across options; whether political decision makers are choosing among risky/certain bimodal distributions, high-probability distributions, high/low distributions, or low-probability distributions matters to the predicted impact of framing effects. Finally, studies will need to pay greater attention to the information political decision makers are given and to the impact of group dynamics in political settings. Identifying the scope conditions of prospect theory in the context of political and policymaking processes over time can make a significant contribution to the explanation of both domestic and foreign policy decisions, fill a gap between individual-level choice and institutionally based outcomes, and provide a stronger behavioral foundation for understanding the dynamics of multiactor policy choice.

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