scholarly journals The enemy votes: Weapons improvisation and bargaining failure

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Garrett Wood
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Information Revelation ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

Belligerents could in principle avoid the ex post costs of conflict by revealing all private information about their violent capabilities and then calculating odds of success ex ante. Incentives to misrepresent private information for strategic gain, however, can cause miscalculations that lead to war. I argue some private information can lead to miscalculation not because it is purposefully misrepresented for strategic gain but because it is too decentralized to be easily revealed. The decentralized private information that produces improvised weapons requires a process of discovering suitable local resources and battlefield testing driven by local military entrepreneurs which frustrates information revelation. Decentralized private information used to improvise new weapons and capabilities like those which emerged in Afghanistan and Iraq show that it can take many years, decades, or even an indeterminate amount of time for fighting to reveal relevant information about violent capabilities.

DISCUSSION OF: Knowing Versus Telling Private Information About a Rival

2013 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Dhananjay (DJ) Nanda
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Product Market ◽  
Bertrand Competition ◽  
Information Quantity ◽  
Accounting Disclosure ◽  
Product Heterogeneity ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Future Work

ABSTRACT Bagnoli and Watts (2013) show that a firm will always disclose its private information when this information solely affects its rival's product market decisions. This result is robust to different competitive scenarios (Cournot or Bertrand competition), features (product heterogeneity or private information quantity), and levels of commitment (ex ante or ex post). I highlight how this result fits in the accounting disclosure literature, describe the intuition behind the theory, and discuss its implications for future work.

scholarly journals Noise, Information, and the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Predictions

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Ottaviani ◽  
Peter Norman Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

According to the favorite-longshot bias, the expected return on an outcome tends to increase in the fraction of bets laid on that outcome. We derive testable implications for the direction and extent of the bias depending on the ratio of private information to noise present in the market. We link this ratio to observables such as the number of bettors, the number of outcomes, the amount of private information, the level of participation generated by recreational interest in the event, the divisibility of bets, the presence of ex post noise, as well as ex ante asymmetries across outcomes. (JEL D81, D83)

Preserving Bidder Privacy in Assignment Auctions: Design and Measurement

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 3162-3182
Author(s):  
De Liu ◽  
Adib Bagh
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Private Information ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
Information Revelation ◽  
Assignment Problems ◽  
Quasi Monte Carlo ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Entropy Reduction ◽  
Unit Demand

Motivated by bidders’ interests in concealing their private information in auctions, we propose an ascending clock auction for unit-demand assignment problems that economizes on bidder information revelation, together with a new general-purpose measure of information revelation. Our auction uses an iterative partial reporting design such that for a given set of prices, not all bidders are required to report their demands, and when they are, they reveal a single preferred item at a time instead of all. Our design can better preserve bidder privacy while maintaining several good properties: sincere bidding is an ex post Nash equilibrium, ending prices are path independent, and efficiency is achieved if the auction starts with the auctioneer’s reservation values. Our measurement of information revelation is based on Shannon’s entropy and can be used to compare a wide variety of auction and nonauction mechanisms. We propose a hybrid quasi–Monte Carlo procedure for computing this measure. Our numerical simulations show that our auction consistently outperforms a full-reporting benchmark with up to 18% less entropy reduction and scales to problems of over 100,000 variables. This paper was accepted by Chris Forman, information systems.

Preventives Versus Treatments *

2015 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
pp. 1167-1239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Kremer ◽  
Christopher M. Snyder
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Status ◽  
Heart Attacks ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Producer Surplus ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Consumer Values ◽  
The Difference

Abstract Preventives are sold ex ante, before disease status is realized, while treatments are sold ex post. Even if the mean of the ex ante distribution of consumer values is the same as that ex post, the shape of the distributions may differ, generating a difference between the surplus each product can extract. If, for example, consumers differ only in ex ante disease risk, then a monopolist would have more difficulty extracting surplus with a preventive than with a treatment because treatment consumers, having contracted the disease, no longer differ in disease risk. We show that the ratio of preventive to treatment producer surplus can be arbitrarily small, in particular when the distribution of consumer values has a Zipf shape and the disease is rare. The firm’s bias toward treatments can be reversed, for example, if the source of private information is disease severity learned ex post. The difference between the producer surplus earned from the products can result in distorted R&D incentives; the deadweight loss from this distortion can be as large as the entire producer-surplus difference. Calibrations for HIV and heart attacks based on risk factors in the U.S. population suggest that the distribution of disease risk is sufficiently Zipf-similar to generate substantial differences between producer surplus from preventives and treatments. Empirically, we find that proxies for the Zipf-similarity of the disease-risk distribution are associated a significantly lower likelihood of vaccine development but not drug development.

Evaluácia projektových aktivít mikroregiónu Termál v troch programových obdobiach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daša Oremusová ◽  
Hilda Kramáreková ◽  
Magdaléna Nemčíková
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Post Evaluation ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Programming Period ◽  
Territorial Strategies

The new programming period 2021 – 2017 brings a new philosophy of integration - in the emergence of integrated territorial strategies (ITS) and their financing through integrated territorial investments (ITI). The aim of the paper is, based on the above reasons, to evaluate the project activities of the microregion Termál considering the implemented projects in the programming periods 2007 – 2013 and 2014 – 2020 (ex-post evaluation) as well as the readiness of the area for financial resources in the programming period 2021 – 2027 (ex-ante evaluation). In terms of methodology, we used the comparative analysis of various information sources (mainly Programs of economic development and social development of municipalities, microregion Termál and databases of the Department of Strategic Activities of the Municipality of Nitra Region) and standard statistical and cartographic methods leading to data processing and visualization. The results provide information on the diversification of obtained and expected funds at individual municipalities and the whole territory. While in both previous programming periods, the focus was mainly on building social and technical infrastructure. At the beginning of the new programming period, expectations mainly focused on increasing territorial competitiveness by supporting industries using local resources and sustainable smart energy communities.

Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Performance of Optimal REIT Portfolios

CFA Digest ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 8-9
Author(s):  
Ann C. Logue
Keyword(s):  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

Erreurs de prévision ex ante et ex post

1993 ◽  
Vol 108 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-138
Author(s):  
Pierre Malgrange ◽  
Silvia Mira d'Ercole
Keyword(s):  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante
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