scholarly journals the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission to Inflation in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 272-284
Author(s):  
Fadilah Zulfa ◽  
Deky Aji Suseno
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Gap Data

The purpose of this research is to know and analyze about the comparative effectiveness of monetary policy transmission by interest rate channel and exchange rate channel in influencing inflation in Indonesia. Data used in this research is quarterly time series data from year 2005Q3 until 2017Q1. The variables used in this research are SBI interest rate, interbank call money interest rate, deposit interest rate, loan interest rate, investment, interest rate differential, capital inflow, exchange rate, net export and output gap. Data used in this research sourced by Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, and International Monetary Fund. The method used in this research is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of this research showed that in the long-term and the short-term in interest rate channel, interbank call money interest rate variables had a significant effect on inflation. Then the results of impulse response function test showed that the mechanism of monetary policy transmission requires outside lag to be able to influence inflation and indicate that the monetary policy transmission through interest rate in influencing the ultimate goal of inflation is more effective than exchange rate.  In addition, variance decomposition results concluded that the rate of interbank call money interest rate variant is appropriately used as an operational target of monetary policy transmission for implementation in influencing inflation. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis perbandingan efektivitas transmisi kebijakan moneter jalur suku bunga dan jalur nilai tukar dalam mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series triwulanan dari tahun 2005Q3 sampai dengan 2017Q1. Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini antara lain suku bunga SBI, suku bunga PUAB, suku bunga deposito, suku bunga kredit, investasi, interest rate differential, capital inflow, nilai tukar, ekspor neto dan output gap. Data penelitian ini berasal dari Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik dan International Monetary Fund. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dalam jalur suku bunga, suku bunga PUAB berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi. Hasil uji impulse response function menyatakan bahwa mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter memerlukan time lag hingga mampu mempengaruhi inflasi dan menunjukkan bahwa mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter melalui jalur suku bunga efektif dalam mempengaruhi sasaran akhir inflasi. Kemudian hasil uji variance decomposition menyimpulkan bahwa varian suku bunga PUAB tepat digunakan sebagai sasaran operasional dari implementasi transmisi kebijakan moneter dalam mempengaruhi inflasi.

scholarly journals PERBANDINGAN EFEKTIVITAS MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER ANTARA JALUR SUKU BUNGA DENGAN JALUR NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP SASARAN AKHIR INFLASI

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Martin Simanjuntak ◽  
Budi Santosa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

<em>This result discusses the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by comparing the interest rate channel with the exchange rate channel towards the final inflation taget. </em><em>This study using regression method Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In the study of this monetary policy transmission mechanism using secondary data based on monthly time series, namely from January 2011 to December 2015. The data is obtained from Bank Indonesia Financial Economic Statistics (SEKI).</em> <em>From the results of this research, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy exchange rate channel is more effective than monetary policy transmission mechanism interest rate channel; it is proven through the test impulse responses and variance decomposition test. In the exchange rate channel time lag until reach the final target of monetary policy (inflation) is 4 months while for the interest rate channel time lag until reach the final target of monetary policy is 5 months. RPUAB very suitable for use as an operational target in the monetary policy transmission mechanism cause rapid and strong response from RPUAB in responding the shock of monetary policy. RPUAB is the biggest variable that dominates the formation of inflation.</em>

MODEL PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imam Mukhlis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

This research aims to estimate the demand for money model in Indonesia for 2005.22015.12. The variables used in this research are demand for money, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate (IDR/US$). The stationary test with ADF used to test unit root in the data. Cointegration test applied to estimate the long run relationship between variables. This research employed the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the money demand model in Indonesia. The results showed that all the data was stationer at the difference level (1%). There were long run relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia. The VECM model could not explain interaction between explanatory variables to independent variables. In the short run, there were not relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia for 2005.2-2015.12.

Analisis Efektivitas Kebijakan Moneter Dalam Perspektif Konvensional dan Syariah Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2013-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rindani Dwihapsari ◽  
Mega Rachma Kurniaputri ◽  
Nurul Huda
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Average Yield ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism ◽  
The Interest Rate

This scientific research was conducted to see the effect and how the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism from both conventional and sharia perspectives to tackle inflation in 2013-2020. The conventional monetary policy transmission mechanism can be seen from the total conventional bank credit (LOAN), the interest rate on Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI), and the average yield on Government Securities (SUN). Meanwhile, sharia monetary policy can be seen from the yield rates on Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS), total Islamic bank financing (FINC) and the average yield of State Sharia Securities (SBSN). Through the Vector Error Correction Model method, it is found that the SBI results have a significant negative effect so that if the interest rate increases by one percent it will reduce inflation. Unlike the case with the effectiveness as measured by the Impulse Response Function (IFR) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), where conventional monetary policy is fast in controlling the inflation rate compared to Islamic monetary policy. However, the magnitude of Islamic monetary policy is greater than conventional monetary policy.

scholarly journals Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility Spillovers: Multiscale Perspective of Monetary Policy Transmission in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-167
Author(s):  
Nana Kwame Akosah ◽  
Paul Alagidede ◽  
Eric Schaling
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

AbstractGhana’s economy is characterised by acute exchange rate volatility alongside persistent and high consumer inflation. This places the economy among the sub-Saharan African countries with the highest inflation over the years. Therefore, we explore in-sample and out-of-sample macro-volatility spillovers to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy and also ascertain the relevance of the exchange rate in Ghana’s interest rate setting at both time and multiscale domains. The study reveals scale-dependent interconnectedness among the macro-variables as their causal linkages broadly intensify at the longer time-scale. We find the real policy rate and the exchange rate to be net transmitters of shocks, while inflation and output gaps are net receivers of shocks from the system. Output gap, however, is the largest net receiver of shocks from the system. The empirical findings generally buttress the prerequisite to uphold exchange rate stability in order to inure general macroeconomic stability in Ghana. In addition, the extent of spillover dynamics from policy interest rate to and from the targeted macro-variables (particularly output gap and inflation) appears to be moderate even in the long run, surmising less effective monetary policy transmission in Ghana.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Transmission under Inflation Targeting in Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdenechuluun Khishigjargal
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Rate Transmission ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism ◽  
The Interest Rate

This article aims to examine the monetary policy transmission mechanism under the inflation targeting in Mongolia for the period from June 2007 to August 2017 by applying a recursive vector-autoregressive model. Under the inflation targeting framework, the Bank of Mongolia has established the interest rate corridor since February 2013 for the purpose of improving the interest rate channel of the transmission mechanism. The study then contributes to the literature by assessing whether the interest rate corridor has really improved the policy rate transmission effects by comparing the effects between the pre-corridor period (from June 2007 to February 2013) and the post-corridor period (from March 2013 to August 2017). The main findings of this study are as follows. First, in the post-corridor period the effect of policy rate is clearly transmitted to the lending rate and inflation rate through the responses of interbank market rate, whereas the pre-corridor period does not represent any significant interest rate transmission effects. This outcomes implies that the interest rate corridor has contributed to enhancing monetary policy transmission mechanism. Second, the responses of exchange rate and industrial production to the policy rate shock are not significant even after the adoption of the interest rate corridor. This insignificance might come from the stick policy rate to stabilize the exchange rate, so-called a “fear of floating”.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DI INDONESIA (PENERAPAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL)

IQTISHODUNA ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Umi Julaihah, SE., M.Si,
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Policy Variable

The objectives of this study are to analyze the effect of monetary policy on Indonesian economy and to know policy variable such as monetary aggregate that have contribution in explain the variability of macroeconomic variables. The data sample used in this study are quarterly time series data from 1983.1 - 2003.2. Those data are base money, one month commercial bank deposit interest rate, consumer price index, gross domestic product, and exchange rate (rupiah/dollar). A method of analysis in this study is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The advantages of VECM are because it has: (i) impulse response function that can trace the response of one endogen variable because shock/innovation of others variables in the model; (ii) variance decomposition that can show the contribution of one variable endogen in explained the variability of others endogen variables. The result of impulse response function shows that economic growth did not response the shock of base money. Although base money has significant effect on inflation but this model leaves a price puzzle and liquidity puzzle. The result of variance decomposition shows that base money contributes only 5% on inflation but it did not give any contribution on economic growth fluctuation. The interesting result is policy variables (base money) have best contribution in explain the fluctuation on exchange rate. Then, it asserts that shock of policy variable is responded by exchange rate faster than other macroeconomic variables.

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