scholarly journals Systemic risk of cruise ship incidents from an Arctic and insurance perspective

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara Johannsdottir ◽  
David Cook ◽  
Gisele M. Arruda
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Search And Rescue ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cruise Ship ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Insurance Sector ◽  
Seabed Mapping ◽  
Ice Navigation

Easier accessibility and demand for so-called last chance tourism has contributed to rapid growth in Arctic cruise ship tourism. Arctic cruising brings many benefits to remote coastal communities but also presents an array of risks. In the light of this context, this article explores the concept of systemic risk of cruise ship incidents in general, findings which are then placed in an Arctic context and consideration given of the role the insurance sector may play in addressing cruise ship incidents. The study is based on metadata, both from academic and nonacademic sources. Findings are drawn from 11 global case studies of cruise ship incidents, 5 of which are polar examples. In the worst-case scenario, an array of serious economic, business, environmental, sociocultural, and security impacts may unfold in the Arctic, presenting risks that may be considerably worse than in other parts of the world. Arctic-specific challenges include extreme weather conditions and the presence of sea-ice, navigation and communication conditions, and lack of infrastructure (port facilities, Search and Rescue capabilities). Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic have been identified, for example, in terms of seabed mapping, how to deal with industry-related activities, and the risks and nature of environmental change. When cruise ship risks in the Arctic are considered, both passenger and shipowner risk need to be accounted for, including Search and Rescue cover. Although data are limited, there is evidence that the sociocultural risks of an Arctic cruise ship incident are insufficiently addressed, either via insurance mechanisms or cross-border, navigational safety guidelines such as the Polar Code. The academic contribution of the study is the systemic scale of the analysis, and the practical and political implications are to lay the foundation for solution discussion that is of relevance in an Arctic and insurance context.

scholarly journals Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Foggitt ◽  
Andre Heymans ◽  
Gary W. Van Vuuren ◽  
Anmar Pretorius
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South African ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Ethical Behaviour ◽  
The South ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011) stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk.Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised.Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK) of the South African (SA) banking sector between 2001 and 2013.Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK.Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly.Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst-case scenario analyses (such as those in this study) could aid in determining exactly how much capital banks could need in order to be considered sufficiently capitalised during a financial crisis, and therefore safe from systemic risk.

Long-Range Rescue Helicopter Missions in the Arctic

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolf Haagensen ◽  
Karl-Åke Sjøborg ◽  
Anders Rossing ◽  
Henry Ingilæ ◽  
Lars Markengbakken ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Search And Rescue ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Industrial Accidents ◽  
Rescue Helicopter ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Closed Fractures ◽  
The Right

AbstractBackground:Search and rescue helicopters from the Royal Norwegian Air Force conduct ambulance and search and rescue missions in the Barents Sea. The team on-board includes an anesthesiologist and a paramedic. Operations in this area are challenging due to long distances, severe weather conditions, and arctic winter darkness.Methods:One-hundred, forty-seven ambulance and 29 search and rescue missions in the Barents Sea during 1994–1999 were studied retrospectively with special emphasis on operative conditions and medical results.Results and Discussion:Thirty-five percent of the missions were carried out in darkness. The median time from the alarm to first patient contact was 3.3 hours and the median duration of the missions was 7.3 hours. Forty-eight percent of the missions involved ships of foreign origin. Half the patients had acute illnesses, dominated by gastrointestinal and heart diseases. Most of the injuries resulted from industrial accidents with open and closed fractures, amputations, and soft tissue damage. Ninety percent of the patients were hospitalized; 7.5% probably would not have survived without early medical treatment and rapid transportation to a hospital.Conclusion:Using a heavy search and rescue helicopter in the Barents Sea was the right decision in terms of medical gain and operative risk.

Making good weather-based decisions

2010 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 707
Author(s):  
Mike Bergin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
False Alarm ◽  
Service Provider ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Worst Case

Processes in good weather-based decision making: Understand the threat. While wind and rainfall threats are generally well understood, some other events—such as negative storm surge, long distance lightning strikes, or tsunami—are often not considered. Although these events are not as frequent, they can be devastating. Be aware of resources. An awareness of products, and making appropriate use of these products, contributes greatly to good decision making. The use of probabilities is growing in popularity; however, the uptake of these products has been limited because of the desire to make yes/no decisions. Understand the products. The meanings of products, and terms within the products, are not always well understood. This can be seen in cone of uncertainty TC forecasts and significant wave height forecasts where the potential risks are often underestimated. There is an evolving need to provide educational material and resources to decision makers. Understand the spread of possibilities. It can be easy to just look at a deterministic forecast—the most likely weather conditions—without considering alternative outcomes. The best strategy is to work with the weather service provider to determine the likelihood of the worst case scenario at any given time. Use good sources of information. Too often we hear that alternative opinions have been sourced from the internet. There can be very good reasons for having more than one service provider, but using unverified sources or raw model data can have calamitous results. Have well understood response procedures. When developing response plans, work with a skilled meteorologist to identify potential weaknesses. As an example, we see many strategies that rely on only observed TC characteristics rather than forecast characteristics. Make sure false alarm and probability of detection ratios of response plans are known. This can alleviate concern among senior management if they accept that a number of false alarm responses are a normal part of safe operations. Report the weather. Reporting onsite weather in a standardised manner has a tremendous impact on the overall skill of forecasts. Forecasts are usually tuned to match the prevailing site idiosyncrasies, especially in remote or terrain-influenced locations. Additionally, weather usually moves from point A to point B, so if there is a culture of sharing information then the community in general benefits.

Medical Coverage of a Marathon: Establishing Guidelines for Deployment of Health Care Resources

1991 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. Ellis ◽  
Vincent P. Verdile ◽  
Paul M. Paris ◽  
Michael B. Heller ◽  
Robert Kennedy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Support Groups ◽  
Life Support ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Advanced Life Support ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Medical Personnel ◽  
Electrolyte Disorders ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Finish Line ◽  
Worst Case

AbstractIntroduction:Few prearranged events provide better opportunities for emergency health system coordination and planned disaster management than does medical coverage of a major city marathon. No guidelines exist as to the appropriate level of care that should be provided for such an event.Methods:The medical coverage for 2,900 marathon runners and an estimated 500,000 spectators along a 26.2-mile course over city streets for the 1986 Pittsburgh Marathon was examined prospectively. Support groups included physicians, nurses, and medical students from area hospitals and emergency departments and podiatrists, physical therapists, athletic trainers, and massage therapists from the Pittsburgh area. Emergency medical services were provided by city and county advanced life support (ALS) and basic life support (BLS) units, the American Red Cross, and the Salvation Army. A total of 641 medical volunteers participated in the coverage. Data were collected by volunteers as to acute medical and sports medical complaints of all patients, their vital signs, and the treatment provided. Medical care was provided at 20 field aid-stations along the race route (including a station every mile afier the 12-mile mark, and at four stations at the finish line).Results:Race day weather conditions were unusually warm with a high temperature of 86°F (30°C), relative humidity of 64%, partly sunny with little ambient wind, and a high wet bulb-globe temperature of 78°F (25.6°C). Records were obtained on 658/2,900 (25%) runner-patients of which 52 (8%) required transportation to area hospitals after evaluation at aid-stations: three were admitted to intensive care units. Analysis showed that 379/658 (58%) of the patients were treated at the finish line medical areas, and of the remaining 279 patients treated on the course, 218/279 (78%) were seen at seven, mile-aid-stations between 16.2 and 22.8 miles. The conditions of heat and humidity constitute a near “worst-case” scenario and the numbers of medical personnel that should be available to deliver acute care of hyperthermia/hypothermia and fluid/electrolyte disorders are recommended. Also it is recommended that approximately 50% of medical personnel and equipment should be deployed in the finish line area and that 80% of the remaining resources on the race course be deployed in aid-stations located every mile between miles 16 and 23.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽  
Wessam Mesbah ◽  
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽  
Ali T. Alawami
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bidding Strategies ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

scholarly journals A Thermally Conductive Pt/AAO Catalyst for Hydrogen Passive Autocatalytic Recombination

Catalysts ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Alina E. Kozhukhova ◽  
Stephanus P. du Preez ◽  
Aleksander A. Malakhov ◽  
Dmitri G. Bessarabov
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Particle Size ◽  
Combustion Temperature ◽  
Volume Fraction ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Al Alloy ◽  
Impregnation Method ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Thermal Distribution

In this study, a Pt/anodized aluminum oxide (AAO) catalyst was prepared by the anodization of an Al alloy (Al6082, 97.5% Al), followed by the incorporation of Pt via an incipient wet impregnation method. Then, the Pt/AAO catalyst was evaluated for autocatalytic hydrogen recombination. The Pt/AAO catalyst’s morphological characteristics were determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The average Pt particle size was determined to be 3.0 ± 0.6 nm. This Pt/AAO catalyst was tested for the combustion of lean hydrogen (0.5–4 vol% H2 in the air) in a recombiner section testing station. The thermal distribution throughout the catalytic surface was investigated at 3 vol% hydrogen (H2) using an infrared camera. The Al/AAO system had a high thermal conductivity, which prevents the formation of hotspots (areas where localized surface temperature is higher than an average temperature across the entire catalyst surface). In turn, the Pt stability was enhanced during catalytic hydrogen combustion (CHC). A temperature gradient over 70 mm of the Pt/AAO catalyst was 23 °C and 42 °C for catalysts with uniform and nonuniform (worst-case scenario) Pt distributions. The commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+ was used to compare the experimentally observed and numerically simulated thermal distribution of the Pt/AAO catalyst. The effect of the initial H2 volume fraction on the combustion temperature and conversion of H2 was investigated. The activation energy for CHC on the Pt/AAO catalyst was 19.2 kJ/mol. Prolonged CHC was performed to assess the durability (reactive metal stability and catalytic activity) of the Pt/AAO catalyst. A stable combustion temperature of 162.8 ± 8.0 °C was maintained over 530 h of CHC. To confirm that Pt aggregation was avoided, the Pt particle size and distribution were determined by TEM before and after prolonged CHC.

scholarly journals The Northwest Passage in the Arctic: A Brief Assessment of the Relevant Marine Transportation System and Current Availability of Search and Rescue Services

Logistics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Rebecca Sheehan ◽  
Dimitrios Dalaklis ◽  
Anastasia Christodoulou ◽  
Megan Drewniak ◽  
Peter Raneri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Search And Rescue ◽  
Maritime Transportation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marine Transportation ◽  
Northwest Passage ◽  
Traffic Routing ◽  
Brief Assessment

The analysis in hand provides a brief assessment of the United States’ and Canada’s marine transportation system and relevant search and rescue (SAR) support in relation to the Northwest Passage, with the purpose of examining to what extent these countries’ relevant infrastructure resources are able to meet the expected growth of shipping operations and business activities in the Arctic. Through an extensive literature review, this assessment will specifically describe the most important influences upon the maritime transportation system, with the issue of certain geographical details and the capabilities of existing ports standing out. Additionally, vessel activity trends and vessel traffic routing measure initiatives will be examined. Furthermore, the SAR infrastructure details and means to render assistance to people in distress along the Northwest Passage will be discussed. The reality remains that port characteristics are limited and vessel traffic routing measure initiatives and upgrades to SAR assets are commendable but slow-paced. It is true that both the United States and Canada are taking proper measures to build up infrastructure needs, but they both may run out of time to put adequate infrastructure in place to deal effectively with the changing environment.

scholarly journals Autonomous ships for container shipping in the Arctic routes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziaul Haque Munim ◽  
Rana Saha ◽  
Halvor Schøyen ◽  
Adolf K. Y. Ng ◽  
Theo E. Notteboom
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Search And Rescue ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Container Shipping ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Arctic Shipping ◽  
Control Centre ◽  
Autonomous Ship ◽  
Best Worst Method

AbstractThis study investigates the competitiveness of various autonomous ship categories for container shipping in the Arctic route. We propose a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework using four ship categories as alternatives and eight criteria for competitiveness evaluation. We analyse collected data using the Best–Worst Method (BWM), one of the recently developed MCDM methods. The findings reveal that operating expenses, navigation aspects, and environmental protection are the three most important criteria for deploying autonomous ships in the Arctic route. Among the three investigated autonomous ships alternatives, the semi-autonomous ship operated from a shore control centre (SCC) is prioritized for Arctic shipping in the foreseeable future, when benchmarked against the conventional ship. The SCC-controlled semi-autonomous ship alternative is competitive in the majority of the considered criteria including operating expenses, capital expenses, navigation, ship-shore and ship–ship communication, search and rescue, and environmental protection.

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