scholarly journals Explaining Turnout Decline in Post-Communist Countries: The Impact of Migration

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-60
Author(s):  
Mircea Comşa
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Hypothesis ◽  
External Migration

Abstract Turnout decline in former communist countries has attracted a great deal of scholarly attention. In this paper, I re-test some of the previous hypotheses on new data and I propose a new hypothesis that considers the impact of external migration. Using multivariate regression models on a dataset of 272 presidential and parliamentary elections held in 30 post-communist countries between 1989 and 2012, I have found strong support for the “migration hypothesis”: other things being equal, an increase of migration rate by 1 percentage point reduces voter turnout by around 0.4 percentage points. Most of the previous hypotheses related to causes of turnout decline are supported too.

Residential Mobility and Voter Turnout

1987 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peverill Squire ◽  
Raymond E. Wolfinger ◽  
David P. Glass
Keyword(s):  
Residential Mobility ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Large Impact ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Impact

We examine the characteristics of a largely ignored low-turnout group—people who have recently moved. We find that neither demographic nor attitudinal attributes explain their lower turnout. Instead, the requirement that citizens must register anew after each change in residence constitutes the key stumbling block in the trip to the polls. Since nearly one-third of the nation moves every two years, moving has a large impact on national turnout rates. We offer a proposal to reduce the effect of residential mobility on turnout and estimate that turnout would increase by nine percentage points if the impact of moving could be removed. The partisan consequences of such a change would be marginal.

Ramadan’s impact on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 727-742
Author(s):  
Harit Satt ◽  
Sarah Nechbaoui ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Selma Izadi
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Information Uncertainty ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
World Religions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to document the impact of Ramadan on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations taking as a sample the countries of the MENA region during the period between 2004 and 2015. The choice of these countries can be explained by the fact that their population is predominantly of a Muslim faith (The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, 2015). Design/methodology/approach The authors used univariate and multivariate regression models to highlight the existence of the Ramadan effect on the optimism of analysts. They have found that pre-holiday optimism is significantly lower than post-holiday optimism. Findings This paper also documented the effect of analysts’ experience and information uncertainty on the analysts’ optimism level that allowed us to infer that low experience enhances optimism, while environment with low information uncertainty tends to decrease the level of optimism. Originality/value Previous research on this topic has investigated the effect of months of the year, turns of the month and days-of-the-week on the behavior of stock exchanges. Another strand of the literature also analyzed the effect of holidays on the latter. However, this is the first attempt to investigate this effect on analysts’ recommendations optimism when the holiday period is related to Islam.

The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout

1978 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J. Rosenstone ◽  
Raymond E. Wolfinger
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Population Survey ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
State Laws ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Registration Laws ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
State Registration ◽  
The Impact

After the drastic relaxation of voter registration requirements in the 1960s, do present state laws keep people away from the polls? More specifically, which provisions have how much effect on what kinds of people? We have answered these questions with data from the Current Population Survey conducted by the Census Bureau in November 1972.State registration laws reduced turnout in the 1972 presidential election by about nine percentage points. The impact of the laws was heaviest in the South and on less educated people of both races. Early deadlines for registration and limited registration office hours were the biggest impediments to turnout.Contrary to expectations, changing these requirements would not substantially alter the character of the electorate. The voting population would be faintly less affluent and educated; the biggest difference would be a matter of one or two percentage points. In strictly political terms, the change would be even fainter–a gain for the Democrats of less than half a percent.

scholarly journals Sibling Similarities and the Importance of Parental Socioeconomic Position in Electoral Participation

Social Forces ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 702-724
Author(s):  
Hannu Lahtinen ◽  
Jani Erola ◽  
Hanna Wass
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Position ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Mothers And Fathers ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Multiple Indicators ◽  
Generational Effects ◽  
Sibling Similarity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We studied the impact of an individual’s family and community background on their voting propensity in the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections by employing a sibling design on an individual-level register-based dataset. The results showed that a quarter of the total variance in voter turnout was shared between siblings. Considering the dichotomous nature of the turnout variable, this implies that background has a strong effect which is almost comparable to sibling similarity in education. Parental socioeconomic position and voting, in turn, are equally important factors by explaining one-third of this shared part of the likelihood of voting. Mothers and fathers make roughly equal contributions. The results suggest that future studies of inter-generational effects in political participation, whenever possible, should use information from both maternal and paternal characteristics and multiple indicators of parental socioeconomic position simultaneously. We conclude by underlining that as people cannot choose their background, voting propensity is strongly influenced by factors beyond an individual’s own control, which is problematic for the functioning of inclusive democracy and equality of opportunity.

scholarly journals Distance and Trust: An Examination of the Two Opposing Factors Impacting Adoption of Postal Voting Among Citizens Living Abroad

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miroslav Nemčok ◽  
Johanna Peltoniemi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Postal Service ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
State Office ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So

AbstractPostal voting intends to provide citizens residing abroad with a convenient voting technique to influence political representation in their country of origin. However, its adoption among individuals is dependent on two opposing factors. On the one hand, voting via post helps to overcome the increasing distance between a voter’s residency abroad and the nearest polling station organized by a diplomatic mission (mostly at an embassy or a consulate). On the other hand, this way of voting also requires enough trust that the postal service and designated state office will successfully deliver one’s vote to the ballot box because the result cannot be effectively verified without violation of the ballot secrecy. We examine the interaction of these two factors in an originally conducted survey among Finnish citizens residing abroad fielded shortly after the 2019 Parliamentary elections—the first occasion after Finland put postal voting into effect. Altogether, 664 respondents responded to all questions required for our specification of binomial logistic regression models controlling for various potential confounders. The results demonstrate that trust in postal voting moderates the impact of distance on one’s probability to adopt postal voting. While low-trusting emigrant voters remain largely indifferent regardless of the distance to the nearest polling station, medium-trusting non-resident citizens increasingly mail their ballots when the nearest polling station is more than 100 km away. High-trusting individuals begin to increasingly do so when they are ten to 30 km away.

The effects of competition on premiums: using United Healthcare’s 2015 entry into Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces as an instrumental variable

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 374-399
Author(s):  
Cagdas Agirdas ◽  
Robert J. Krebs ◽  
Masato Yano
Keyword(s):  
Affordable Care Act ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Online Marketplaces ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Level Analysis

AbstractOne goal of the Affordable Care Act is to increase insurance coverage by improving competition and lowering premiums. To facilitate this goal, the federal government enacted online marketplaces in the 395 rating areas spanning 34 states that chose not to establish their own state-run marketplaces. Few multivariate regression studies analyzing the effects of competition on premiums suffer from endogeneity, due to simultaneity and omitted variable biases. However, United Healthcare’s decision to enter these marketplaces in 2015 provides the researcher with an opportunity to address this endogeneity problem. Exploiting the variation caused by United Healthcare’s entry decision as an instrument for competition, we study the impact of competition on premiums during the first 2 years of these marketplaces. Combining panel data from five different sources and controlling for 12 variables, we find that one more insurer in a rating area leads to a 6.97% reduction in the second-lowest-priced silver plan premium, which is larger than the estimated effects in existing literature. Furthermore, we run a threshold analysis and find that competition’s effects on premiums become statistically insignificant if there are four or more insurers in a rating area. These findings are robust to alternative measures of premiums, inclusion of a non-linear term in the regression models and a county-level analysis.

State Healthcare and the Impact of Remittances on Turnout in Mexico

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-104
Author(s):  
Ana Isabel Lopez Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Seguro Popular ◽  
Free Healthcare ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive

In Mexico remittances have long been used to compensate for the lack of coverage and quality of state-provided healthcare. Since the mid-2000s, however, those without insurance have been entitled to receive free healthcare via the Seguro Popular programme. While popular, the delivery of this scheme is highly localised and therefore vulnerable to political manipulation. Using a series of regression models based on data at the municipality level, this paper analyses all local elections in Mexico between 2010 and 2012 and the presidential election of 2012 to confirm results of the previous literature which found a negative relationship between remittances and voter turnout. However, the analysis reveals that the negative impact of remittances on turnout becomes larger with additional increases in the coverage of Seguro Popular, though only in those municipalities where the PRI (the former hegemonic party) is electorally strong. The evidence thus confirms that the discretionary character of welfare provision modulates the effect of remittances on turnout in sending municipalities, but only where party-based authoritarianism prevails.

scholarly journals BASIC INSTITUTIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL- AND EASTERN-EUROPEAN POST-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (40) ◽  
pp. 524-534
Author(s):  
O. Vatamaniuk ◽  
P. Ostroverkh ◽  
O. Salovskyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
The World ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Contrasting outcomes of economic reforms conducted by the post-communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe over the last thirty years seem to be directly associated with the peculiarities of their formal and informal institutions. The rapid pace and flexible adjustment of institutional changes, along with mindful heed towards existing institutional frameworks, have become the key to the success of more than a dozen of countries, which eventually and ultimately joined the European Union. In order to analyze the impact of institutions’ quality on economic development in post-socialist countries, the authors substantiate the approach, which outlines five basic groups of institutions: property, power, competition, innovations, and values. A number of indicators collected or calculated by international organizations such as the World Bank, Transparency International, The Heritage Foundation, among others, have been used to describe and quantify the impact of these institutions. In addition, they have been applied to construct and calculate composite indices for each of the five basic groups of institutions, as well as to generalize an integrated institutional index. The authors have chosen the World Bank data on gross domestic products per capita to illustrate the level of economic development of the studied countries. Subsequently, a list of simple linear and multiple regression models has been created, which facilitated identifying a statistically significant impact of an ample number of selected institutions on the level of well-being in post-socialist countries. In particular, the influence of power, innovation, and competition institutions is especially noticeable, also confirmed for the composite indices for these groups of institutions. Furthermore, in multiple regression models, a combination of one of the indicators of power or the corresponding composite index with the R&D expenditures’ share indicator and the Human development index seems a common pattern. In overall, different versions of the models built contain parameters that attribute to four of the five basic institutions. The absence of property-related indicators in these models could probably be explained via the nature of chosen indices and possibilities of the significant indirect impact of property institutions through the indicators of power institutions. Keywords: institutions, economic development, Central and Eastern European countries, institutional changes, basic institutions, regression analysis. JEL Classification B52, O17, O43, P30 Formulas: 0; fig.: 0; tabl.: 4; bibl.: 24.

Partycypacja w wyborach parlamentarnych w latach 1989–2047 w kontekście zmiany społeczno-demograficznej w Polsce

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103
Author(s):  
Wojciech Zawadzki
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Population Expansion ◽  
Professional Status ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

As a result of the social and demographic changes, including the ageing population, expansion of higher education and growing wealth, the higher voter turnout in the parliamentary elections may be expected in the future. Although since 1989 the core variables determining the electoral participation, which are sex, educational level, income, professional status, place of residence, frequency of religious practices have still been the same, the voters’ profiles reveal that the relationships between them are changing. Compared to the previous years, different variables are gaining significance. Education is becoming less important, whereas the role of the financial situation as a factor contributing to the voter turnout is increasing. However, the change of the voters’ profile does not lead to marginalization of groups who usually take part in elections less frequently. The differentiation in the impact on the choice of parliamentary representatives, measured by the concentration ratios, is weakening. The reasons can be sought not only in the voting habit being established, but also in the social and demographic changes.

The Effect of Taxation and Corruption on Firm Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Vietnam

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Bich Le Thi Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
International Development ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze empirically the impact of taxation and corruption on the growth of manufacturing firms in Vietnam. The study employed pooled OLS estimation and then instrument variables with fixed effect for the panel data of 1377 firms in Vietnam from 2005 to 2011. These data were obtained from the survey of the Central Institute for Economic Management and the Danish International Development Agency. The results show that both taxation and corruption are negatively associated with firm growth measured by firm sales adjusted according to the GDP deflator. A one-percentage point increase in the bribery rate is linked with a reduction of 16,883 percentage points in firm revenue, over four and a half times bigger than the effect of a one-percentage point increase in the tax rate. From the findings of this research, the author recommends the Vietnam government to lessen taxation on firms and that there should be an urgent revolution in anti-corruption policies as well as bureaucratic improvement in Vietnam.

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