Simulation methods in real option valuation

Abstract To survive in today's competitive environment, companies must continuously develop and offer customers new products. To increase the probability of a successful business case of investing in the development of a new product, careful attention must be paid to risk analysis in terms of the present value of future potential income. The article considers an example of the research work of the Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, in the framework of which a technical and technological project was developed to produce a new product, like Mediterranean anchovy, from cheaper Baltic sprats. The main goal of this work is to explore the application multi-factor sensitivity and fuzzy real option analysis to the valuation of new product development project. The multivariate analysis of the sensitivity of the financial model of the greenfield production project described in this article revealed the main risk groups, as well as their degree of influence on the assessment of the Net Present Value of the project by a potential investor. The use of Fuzzy Real Option Valuation made it possible to evaluate the project with uncertain parameters, as well as to calculate the potential upside from preliminary refinement of parameters to eliminate negative scenarios. The described approach is applicable to risk assessment of new food product development and allows investors to make a more informed decision about participation in such projects.

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KAJIAN INVESTASI IMPLEMENTASI PUSH E-MAIL DI PERUSAHAAN EPCC DENGAN METODE REAL OPTION VALUATION: STUDI KASUS PADA PT. REKAYASA INDUSTRI

Jurnal Sistem Informasi ◽

10.21609/jsi.v4i1.246 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 59

Author(s):

Tri Hasmoro ◽

Benny Ranti

Keyword(s):

Real Option ◽

Option Valuation ◽

Real Option Valuation ◽

E Mail

Kajian investasi adalah kegiatan analisis untuk menilai manfaat dan biaya dari suatu investasi, dan dapat dijadikan justifikasi investasi. Penilaian investasi yang tradisional menggunakan pendekatan finansial dimana manfaat dan biaya yang ada dikuantifikasi dalam sejumlah nilai uang dan kemudian dibandingkan besar nilainya. Hal inilah yang dilakukan pada metode penilaian investasi dengan NPV dan ROI. ROV (Real Option Valuation) adalah sebuah alternatif penilaian investasi secara finansial. Berangkat dari filosofi yang sama dengan Financial Option, ROV memiliki keunggulan dalam menangani fleksibilitas, resiko, dan volatilitas yang mungkin terjadi dari sebuah investasi. Dengan demikian ROV dinilai lebih mampu menghargai sebuah investasi yang memiliki karakteristik tersebut. Penilaian investasi dengan ROV lebih mampu mengapresiasi investasi dibanding metode finansial tradisional, seperti yang ditunjukkan hasil NPV ROV pada kasus investasi Push E-mail yang lebih besar daripada NPV biasa. Hal ini disebabkan ROV mampu menghargai fleksibilitas dalam investasi yang memiliki pilihan-pilihan rencana investasi di masa depan.

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A real option approach for the valuation of switching output flexibility in residential property investment

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction ◽

10.1108/jfmpc-05-2017-0017 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 23 (2) ◽

pp. 133-151 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Kwabena Mintah ◽

David Higgins ◽

Judith Callanan

Keyword(s):

Real Options ◽

Real Option ◽

Economic Value ◽

Management Tool ◽

Residential Property ◽

Option Valuation ◽

Content Type ◽

Real Option Analysis ◽

Real Option Valuation ◽

Mixed Use

Purpose Uncertainties in residential property investment performance require that real estate assets are designed in a flexible manner to respond to impacts of market dynamics. Though estimating the cost of flexibility is straightforward, assessing the economic value of flexibility is not. The purpose of this study is to explore the potential practical application of real option analysis to determine the economic value of a switching output flexibility embedded in a residential property investment in Australia. The study involves the exploration of an optimal strategy for investment in a residential development through real option analysis and valuation of a mixed use investment. Design/methodology/approach The real option valuation model developed by McDonald and Siegel (1986) is adopted for the evaluation because the switching output flexibility is likened to a perpetual American call option with dividend payout. Findings Through real option analysis, the economic value of switching output flexibility of the mixed use building was determined to be higher than the initial upfront costs. Moreover, a payoff of about $4million was determined to be the value of the switching output flexibility, therefore justifying upfront investments in flexibility as an uncertainty and risk management tool. Practical implications This application is an important demonstration of the practical use of options pricing techniques (real options analysis) and delivers further evidence needed to support the adoption of real option valuation in practice. Flexibility can also enhance risks and uncertainty management in residential property investment better than the adjustment of discount rates. Originality/value There is limited evidence on the use of real options techniques for the valuation of switching output flexibility in practice, and this comes as an original application; both the case study and data are all initial applications of switching flexibility in the Australian property market.

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