scholarly journals Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiane Baumeister ◽  
Lutz Kilian
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals The Bahamas

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (198) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investments ◽  
The Bahamas ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hurricane Vulnerability ◽  
The U.S

Growth has returned after years of stagnation. The reform-oriented government is tackling structural issues, with notable achievements in the fiscal area. The financial sector is sound and resilient to current stability threats, but credit remains scarce. The offshore sector faces heightened international scrutiny and the government is taking steps to strengthen compliance with AML/CFT and tax transparency standards. Tourism and related foreign investments will support growth in the near-term, while low competitiveness and diversification dampen medium-term prospects. Growth would suffer from a slowdown in the U.S. or higher oil prices, and hurricane vulnerability persists. Reform momentum could stall, undermining fiscal consolidation efforts.

scholarly journals Impact of oil prices, the U.S interest rates on Turkey’s real estate market. New evidence from combined co-integration and bootstrap ARDL tests

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0242672
Author(s):  
Ahmed Alhodiry ◽  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Ahmed Samour
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

The research aims to provide new empirical evidence by testing the impact of the external shocks namely: oil prices and the U.S interest rate on Turkey’s real estate market by using three techniques of co-integration tests namely: the newly developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing approach as proposed by (McNown et al. 2018), the new approach involving the Bayer-Hanck (2013) combined co-integration test, Hatemi-J (2008) co-integration testing approach. The ARDL model is utilized to explore the relationship between the variables. The findings show that the oil prices have a positive impact on Turkey’s real estate market, the results confirm that there is a significant impact of oil prices on Turkey’s real estate market through the domestic interest rate. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that there is a significant spillover influence of the U.S. interest rates on Turkey’s real estate market through oil prices and domestic interest rates. This study suggests that the following factors led to increasing the sensitivity and volatility of the Turkish real estate market to oil prices and the U.S. interest rate fluctuations: the presence of economic interdependence between the USA and Turkey, and the majority of the external debts and the reserve currency in Turkey are composed in the USD, and Turkey’s oil imports hit record high in last years. Finally, this article suggests that policymakers in Turkey should pay close attention to the effects of external shocks namely the oil prices and U.S. interest rates on Turkish markets to maintain economic and financial stability.

scholarly journals Oil prices and the U.S. trade deficit

2007 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 729-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Andrea Bollino
Keyword(s):  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Time-Varying Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate in the Context of Structural Breaks

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2395
Author(s):  
Yue Liu ◽  
Pierre Failler ◽  
Jiaying Peng ◽  
Yuhang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate within the structural break detection context. Based on monthly data from January 1996 to April 2019, this paper identifies structural breaks in movements of oil price and examines the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate movement by introducing the economic policy uncertainty and using the TVP-VAR (Time-Varying Parameter-Vector Auto Regression ) model. Empirical results indicate that shocks to crude oil prices have immediate and short-term impacts on movements in the exchange rate which are emphasized during the confidence intervals of structural breaks. Oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty are interrelated and influence movements in the U.S. exchange rate. Since the U.S. dollar is the main currency of the international oil market and the U.S. has become a major exporter of crude oil, the transmission of price shocks to the U.S. exchange rate becomes complicated. In most cases, the relationship between oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate movements is negative.

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