Collapse risk evaluation method on Bayesian network prediction model and engineering application

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
Jing WANG ◽  
Shucai LI ◽  
Liping LI ◽  
Shaoshuai SHI ◽  
Zhenhao XU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Network Prediction

scholarly journals Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Neng-pu Yang ◽  
Mei Han ◽  
Shi-yong Chen ◽  
Xiao-hua Liu ◽  
Liu-jiang Kang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Transport Process ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Cause Analysis ◽  
Research On Evaluation ◽  
Dangerous Goods ◽  
Fuzzy Probabilities

This work presents a novel evaluation method, which can be applied in the field of risk assessment, project management, cause analysis, and so forth. Two core technologies are used in the method, namely, modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network. Based on the modified Buckley Decision Making, the fuzzy probabilities of element factors are calibrated. By the forward and backward calculation of Bayesian Network, the structure importance, probability importance, and criticality importance of each factor are calculated and discussed. A numerical example of risk evaluation for dangerous goods transport process is given to verify the method. The results indicate that the method can efficiently identify the weakest element factor. In addition, the method can improve the reliability and objectivity for evaluation.

scholarly journals Risk evaluation method for highway roadside accidents

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 168781401882174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guozhu Cheng ◽  
Rui Cheng ◽  
Sulu Zhang ◽  
Xiaoduan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Calculation Methods ◽  
Rollover Risk ◽  
Driving Speed ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Calculation Results ◽  
Accident Simulation

In order to strengthen the safety of highway roadsides, it is necessary to take targeted measures according to the roadside hazards, so there is an urgent need to develop research on risk evaluation of highway roadside accidents. Based on accident simulation analysis and the form of accident after vehicles run to the roadside, the rollover risk of roadside accident is classed into four grades, namely, no departure from the ground, slight departure from the ground, one or two turnovers, and more than two turnovers. The factors involved in the causes of roadside accidents of different rollover risks are studied, and the thresholds of driving speed, sideslope gradient, and sideslope height are given. A Bayesian network for risk evaluation of roadside accidents is constructed. Based on the factor thresholds for the causes of roadside accidents, the calculation methods of the probability of different rollover risks of roadside accidents are carried out according to a single factor, two factors, and three factors. The typical cases of roadside accidents are analyzed and the calculation results of the Bayesian network show that the probability of one or two turnover accidents is 0.939, which is consistent with the results of roadside accident simulation tests, proving the accuracy of the risk evaluation methods for highway roadside accidents.

A Practical Conflicting Role-based Cloud Security Risk Evaluation Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Han ◽  
Jing Zhan ◽  
Xiaoqing Xia ◽  
Xue Fan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Cloud Service ◽  
Cloud Security ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Security Evaluation ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Cloud Users

Background: Currently, Cloud Service Provider (CSP) or third party usually proposes principles and methods for cloud security risk evaluation, while cloud users have no choice but accept them. However, since cloud users and cloud service providers have conflicts of interests, cloud users may not trust the results of security evaluation performed by the CSP. Also, different cloud users may have different security risk preferences, which makes it difficult for third party to consider all users' needs during evaluation. In addition, current security evaluation indexes for cloud are too impractical to test (e.g., indexes like interoperability, transparency, portability are not easy to be evaluated). Methods: To solve the above problems, this paper proposes a practical cloud security risk evaluation method of decision-making based on conflicting roles by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Aggregation of Individual priorities (AIP). Results: Not only can our method bring forward a new index system based on risk source for cloud security and corresponding practical testing methods, but also can obtain the evaluation result with the risk preferences of conflicting roles, namely CSP and cloud users, which can lay a foundation for improving mutual trusts between the CSP and cloud users. The experiments show that the method can effectively assess the security risk of cloud platforms and in the case where the number of clouds increased by 100% and 200%, the evaluation time using our methodology increased by only by 12% and 30%. Conclusion: Our method can achieve consistent decision based on conflicting roles, high scalability and practicability for cloud security risk evaluation.

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