Disaggregated Sales and Stock Returns

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumit Agarwal ◽  
Wenlan Qian ◽  
Xin Zou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Credit Card ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Production Chain ◽  
Price Response ◽  
Earnings Information ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Transmission Speed

Using transaction-level credit-card spending from a large U.S. financial institution, we show that disaggregated sales provide accurate and persistent signals of customer demand relevant to a firm’s stock pricing. After controlling for earnings and sales surprises, one interquintile increase in the adjusted customer spending during a firm’s fiscal quarter leads to a 1.5 percentage point increase in the 60-day post–earnings announcement cumulative abnormal return. The predictability concentrates in consumer-oriented firms, especially those relying more on indirect sales distribution channels. We also find a stronger return response to spending from high-FICO-score, high-liquidity, and loyal customers. The transmission speed of disaggregated sales information is slower than that of the earnings information, and small firms or firms far from their end customers exhibit a more delayed price response. Finally, the return implications of adjusted customer spending extend to firms along the production chain. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.

scholarly journals Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure, and the Low-Risk Anomaly

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 315-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Baker ◽  
Jeffrey Wurgler
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Structure Theory ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Cost

Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower beta and idiosyncratic risk. However, over the last 40 years, lower risk banks have not had lower costs of equity (lower stock returns), consistent with a stock market anomaly previously documented in other samples. A calibration suggests that a binding ten percentage point increase in Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets could double banks' risk premia over Treasury bills.

scholarly journals Demographics and Industry Returns

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (5) ◽  
pp. 1667-1702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano DellaVigna ◽  
Joshua M Pollet
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Distant Future ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Future Consumption ◽  
Demographic Shifts ◽  
Demand Changes ◽  
Consumption Demand

How do investors respond to predictable shifts in profitability? We consider how demographic shifts affect profits and returns across industries. Cohort size fluctuations produce forecastable demand changes for age-sensitive sectors, such as toys, bicycles, beer, life insurance, and nursing homes. These demand changes are predictable once a specific cohort is born. We use lagged consumption and demographic data to forecast future consumption demand growth induced by changes in age structure. We find that demand forecasts predict profitability by industry. Moreover, forecast demand changes five to ten years in the future predict annual industry stock returns. One additional percentage point of annualized demand growth due to demographics predicts a 5 to 10 percentage point increase in annual abnormal industry stock returns. However, forecasted demand changes over shorter horizons do not predict stock returns. A trading strategy exploiting demographic information earns an annualized risk-adjusted return of approximately 6 percent. We present a model of inattention to information about the distant future that is consistent with the findings. We also discuss alternative explanations, including omitted risk-based factors. (JEL E21, G12, G32, J11, L11, L25)

Bailout policies will raise Greek taxpayer's burden

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Property Tax ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Business Tax

Significance Tax arrears are expected to rise to 95 billion euros (106 billion dollars) by year-end following the introduction of new taxes. An ever-rising tax burden is encouraging evasion while discouraging investment, which prefers a tax regime that is both low and predictable. Impacts Nearly 70% of taxpayers may not meet their obligations in full this year, according to the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A 3-percentage-point increase in the basic rate of business tax will hit small firms in particular. Individuals face not only higher income tax rates but a plethora of new indirect taxes and increases in property tax. Evasion will increase the sense that austerity weighs more on some than others, making the policy politically less sustainable.

scholarly journals Some Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Criscuolo ◽  
Ralf Martin ◽  
Henry G. Overman ◽  
John Van Reenen
Keyword(s):  
Small Firms ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Rule Changes ◽  
Investment Subsidy

We exploit changes in the area-specific eligibility criteria for a program to support jobs through investment subsidies. European rules determine whether an area is eligible for subsidies, and we construct instrumental variables for area eligibility based on parameters of these rule changes. Areas eligible for higher subsidies significantly increased jobs and reduced unemployment. A 10-percentage point increase in the maximum investment subsidy stimulates a 10 percent increase in manufacturing employment. This effect exists solely for small firms: large companies accept subsidies without increasing activity. There are positive effects on investment and employment for incumbent firms but not Total Factor Productivity. (JEL E24, G31, H25, L25, L52, R23)

The Effect of Taxation and Corruption on Firm Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Vietnam

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Bich Le Thi Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
International Development ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze empirically the impact of taxation and corruption on the growth of manufacturing firms in Vietnam. The study employed pooled OLS estimation and then instrument variables with fixed effect for the panel data of 1377 firms in Vietnam from 2005 to 2011. These data were obtained from the survey of the Central Institute for Economic Management and the Danish International Development Agency. The results show that both taxation and corruption are negatively associated with firm growth measured by firm sales adjusted according to the GDP deflator. A one-percentage point increase in the bribery rate is linked with a reduction of 16,883 percentage points in firm revenue, over four and a half times bigger than the effect of a one-percentage point increase in the tax rate. From the findings of this research, the author recommends the Vietnam government to lessen taxation on firms and that there should be an urgent revolution in anti-corruption policies as well as bureaucratic improvement in Vietnam.

scholarly journals African American Unemployment and the Disparity in Periviable Births

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Catalano ◽  
Deborah Karasek ◽  
Tim Bruckner ◽  
Joan A. Casey ◽  
Katherine Saxton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
African American ◽  
African American Women ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Racial Disparity ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Us ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Hispanic White

AbstractPeriviable infants (i.e., born before 26 complete weeks of gestation) represent fewer than .5% of births in the US but account for 40% of infant mortality and 20% of billed hospital obstetric costs. African American women contribute about 14% of live births in the US, but these include nearly a third of the country’s periviable births. Consistent with theory and with periviable births among other race/ethnicity groups, males predominate among African American periviable births in stressed populations. We test the hypothesis that the disparity in periviable male births among African American and non-Hispanic white populations responds to the African American unemployment rate because that indicator not only traces, but also contributes to, the prevalence of stress in the population. We use time-series methods that control for autocorrelation including secular trends, seasonality, and the tendency to remain elevated or depressed after high or low values. The racial disparity in male periviable birth increases by 4.45% for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate of African Americans above its expected value. We infer that unemployment—a population stressor over which our institutions exercise considerable control—affects the disparity between African American and non-Hispanic white periviable births in the US.

Health Insurance Status as a Predictor of Mode of Colon Cancer Detection but Not Stage at Diagnosis: Implications for Early Detection

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492199917
Author(s):  
Lindsey A. Jones ◽  
Katherine C. Brewer ◽  
Leslie R. Carnahan ◽  
Jennifer A. Parsons ◽  
Blase N. Polite ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colon Cancer ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Early Detection ◽  
Late Stage ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Insurance Status ◽  
Stage At Diagnosis ◽  
Health Insurance Status ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase

Objective For colon cancer patients, one goal of health insurance is to improve access to screening that leads to early detection, early-stage diagnosis, and polyp removal, all of which results in easier treatment and better outcomes. We examined associations among health insurance status, mode of detection (screen detection vs symptomatic presentation), and stage at diagnosis (early vs late) in a diverse sample of patients recently diagnosed with colon cancer from the Chicago metropolitan area. Methods Data came from the Colon Cancer Patterns of Care in Chicago study of racial and socioeconomic disparities in colon cancer screening, diagnosis, and care. We collected data from the medical records of non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White patients aged ≥50 and diagnosed with colon cancer from October 2010 through January 2014 (N = 348). We used logistic regression with marginal standardization to model associations between health insurance status and study outcomes. Results After adjusting for age, race, sex, and socioeconomic status, being continuously insured 5 years before diagnosis and through diagnosis was associated with a 20 (95% CI, 8-33) percentage-point increase in prevalence of screen detection. Screen detection in turn was associated with a 15 (95% CI, 3-27) percentage-point increase in early-stage diagnosis; however, nearly half (47%; n = 54) of the 114 screen-detected patients were still diagnosed at late stage (stage 3 or 4). Health insurance status was not associated with earlier stage at diagnosis. Conclusions For health insurance to effectively shift stage at diagnosis, stronger associations are needed between health insurance and screening-related detection; between screening-related detection and early stage at diagnosis; or both. Findings also highlight the need to better understand factors contributing to late-stage colon cancer diagnosis despite screen detection.

Aligning Medicaid and Medicare Advantage Managed Care Plans for Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries

2021 ◽  
pp. 107755872110189
Author(s):  
Laura M. Keohane ◽  
Zilu Zhou ◽  
David G. Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Home ◽  
Managed Care ◽  
Prescription Drugs ◽  
Service Use ◽  
Medicare Advantage ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Care Plans ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Dual Eligible ◽  
Home Users

To coordinate Medicare and Medicaid benefits, multiple states are creating opportunities for dual-eligible beneficiaries to join Medicare Advantage Dual-Eligible Special Needs Plans (D-SNPs) and Medicaid plans operated by the same insurer. Tennessee implemented this approach by requiring insurers who offered Medicaid plans to also offer a D-SNP by 2015. Tennessee’s aligned D-SNP participation increased from 7% to 24% of dual-eligible beneficiaries aged 65 years and above between 2011 and 2017. Within a county, a 10-percentage-point increase in aligned D-SNP participation was associated with 0.3 fewer inpatient admissions ( p = .048), 13.9 fewer prescription drugs per month ( p = .048), and 0.3 fewer nursing home users ( p = .06) per 100 dual-eligible beneficiaries aged 65 years and older. Increased aligned plan participation was associated with 0.2 more inpatient admissions ( p = .004) per 100 dual-eligible beneficiaries younger than 65 years. For some dual-eligible beneficiaries, increasing Medicare and Medicaid managed plan alignment has the potential to promote more efficient service use.

scholarly journals Mendelian randomization analysis of arsenic metabolism and pulmonary function within the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Scannell Bryan ◽  
Tamar Sofer ◽  
Majid Afshar ◽  
Yasmin Mossavar-Rahmani ◽  
H. Dean Hosgood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Function ◽  
Mendelian Randomization ◽  
Smoking History ◽  
Health Study ◽  
Arsenic Metabolism ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Genotype Information ◽  
Rice Consumption

AbstractArsenic exposure has been linked to poor pulmonary function, and inefficient arsenic metabolizers may be at increased risk. Dietary rice has recently been identified as a possible substantial route of exposure to arsenic, and it remains unknown whether it can provide a sufficient level of exposure to affect pulmonary function in inefficient metabolizers. Within 12,609 participants of HCHS/SOL, asthma diagnoses and spirometry-based measures of pulmonary function were assessed, and rice consumption was inferred from grain intake via a food frequency questionnaire. After stratifying by smoking history, the relationship between arsenic metabolism efficiency [percentages of inorganic arsenic (%iAs), monomethylarsenate (%MMA), and dimethylarsinate (%DMA) species in urine] and the measures of pulmonary function were estimated in a two-sample Mendelian randomization approach (genotype information from an Illumina HumanOmni2.5-8v1-1 array), focusing on participants with high inferred rice consumption. Among never-smoking high inferred consumers of rice (n = 1395), inefficient metabolism was associated with past asthma diagnosis and forced vital capacity below the lower limit of normal (LLN) (OR 1.40, p = 0.0212 and OR 1.42, p = 0.0072, respectively, for each percentage-point increase in %iAs; OR 1.26, p = 0.0240 and OR 1.24, p = 0.0193 for %MMA; OR 0.87, p = 0.0209 and OR 0.87, p = 0.0123 for the marker of efficient metabolism, %DMA). Among ever-smoking high inferred consumers of rice (n = 1127), inefficient metabolism was associated with peak expiratory flow below LLN (OR 1.54, p = 0.0108/percentage-point increase in %iAs, OR 1.37, p = 0.0097 for %MMA, and OR 0.83, p = 0.0093 for %DMA). Less efficient arsenic metabolism was associated with indicators of pulmonary dysfunction among those with high inferred rice consumption, suggesting that reductions in dietary arsenic could improve respiratory health.

scholarly journals Planning prompts to promote uptake of HIV services among men: a randomised trial in rural Uganda

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. e003390
Author(s):  
Nolan M Kavanagh ◽  
Elisabeth M Schaffer ◽  
Alex Ndyabakira ◽  
Kara Marson ◽  
Diane V Havlir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hiv Testing ◽  
Community Health ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Health Campaign ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Cost Planning ◽  
Testing Uptake ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionInterventions informed by behavioural economics, such as planning prompts, have the potential to increase HIV testing at minimal or no cost. Planning prompts have not been previously evaluated for HIV testing uptake. We conducted a randomised clinical trial to evaluate the effectiveness of low-cost planning prompts to promote HIV testing among men.MethodsWe randomised adult men in rural Ugandan parishes to receive a calendar planning prompt that gave them the opportunity to make a plan to get tested for HIV at health campaigns held in their communities. Participants received either a calendar showing the dates when the community health campaign would be held (control group) or a calendar showing the dates and prompting them to select a date and time when they planned to attend (planning prompt group). Participants were not required to select a date and time or to share their selection with study staff. The primary outcome was HIV testing uptake at the community health campaign.ResultsAmong 2362 participants, 1796 (76%) participants tested for HIV. Men who received a planning prompt were 2.2 percentage points more likely to test than the control group, although the difference was not statistically significant (77.1% vs 74.9%; 95% CI –1.2 to 5.7 percentage points, p=0.20). The planning prompt was more effective among men enrolled ≤40 days before the campaigns (3.6 percentage-point increase in testing; 95% CI –2.9 to 10.1, p=0.27) than among men enrolled >40 days before the campaigns (1.8 percentage-point increase; 95% CI –2.3 to 5.8, p=0.39), although the effects within the subgroups were not significant.ConclusionThese findings suggest that planning prompts may be an effective behavioural intervention to promote HIV testing at minimal or no cost. Large-scale studies should further assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of such interventions.

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