Cry Wolf or Equivocate? Credible Forecast Guidance in a Cost-Loss Game

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 1440-1457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary E. Bolton ◽  
Elena Katok
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Guidance

Earnings Management, Forecast Guidance and the Banking Crisis

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Beccalli ◽  
Saverio Bozzolan ◽  
Andrea Menini ◽  
Philip Molyneux
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Management Forecast ◽  
Forecast Guidance

Bloated balance sheet, earnings management, and forecast guidance

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li‐Chin Jennifer Ho ◽  
Chao‐Shin Liu ◽  
Bo Ouyang
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Forecast Guidance

Earnings management, forecast guidance and the banking crisis

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 242-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Beccalli ◽  
Saverio Bozzolan ◽  
Andrea Menini ◽  
Philip Molyneux
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Management Forecast ◽  
Forecast Guidance

Earnings management or forecast guidance to meet analyst expectations?

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasiliki E. Athanasakou ◽  
Norman C. Strong ◽  
Martin Walker
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Analyst Expectations ◽  
Forecast Guidance

NAQFC Developmental Forecast Guidance for Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5)

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 343-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pius Lee ◽  
Jeffery McQueen ◽  
Ivanka Stajner ◽  
Jianping Huang ◽  
Li Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Organic Nitrate ◽  
Fugitive Dust ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Dust Emissions ◽  
Numerical Predictions ◽  
Forecast Guidance

Abstract The National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) upgraded its modeling system that provides developmental numerical predictions of particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) in January 2015. The issuance of PM2.5 forecast guidance has become more punctual and reliable because developmental PM2.5 predictions are provided from the same system that produces operational ozone predictions on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) supercomputers. There were three major upgrades in January 2015: 1) incorporation of real-time intermittent sources for particles emitted from wildfires and windblown dust originating within the NAQFC domain, 2) suppression of fugitive dust emissions from snow- and/or ice-covered terrain, and 3) a shorter life cycle for organic nitrate in the gaseous-phase chemical mechanism. In May 2015 a further upgrade for emission sources was included using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2011 National Emission Inventory (NEI). Emissions for ocean-going ships and on-road mobile sources will continue to rely on NEI 2005. Incremental tests and evaluations of these upgrades were performed over multiple seasons. They were verified against the EPA’s AIRNow surface monitoring network for air pollutants. Impacts of the three upgrades on the prediction of surface PM2.5 concentrations show large regional variability: the inclusion of windblown dust emissions in May 2014 improved PM2.5 predictions over the western states and the suppression of fugitive dust in January 2015 reduced PM2.5 bias by 52%, from 6.5 to 3.1 μg m−3 against a monthly average of 9.4 μg m−3 for the north-central United States.

The Early Evening Transition in Southeastern US Tornado Environments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Brown ◽  
Christopher J. Nowotarski ◽  
Andrew R. Dean ◽  
Bryan T. Smith ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Convective System ◽  
High Shear ◽  
Evening Transition ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
Early Evening ◽  
Environmental Interactions ◽  
Southeast Us ◽  
Early Evening Transition ◽  
Forecast Guidance

AbstractThe response of severe local storms to environmental evolution across the early evening transition (EET) remains a forecasting challenge, particularly within the context of the Southeast US storm climatology, which includes the increased presence of low-CAPE environments and tornadic non-supercell modes. To disentangle these complex environmental interactions, Southeast severe convective reports spanning 2003-2018 are temporally binned relative to local sunset. Sounding-derived data corresponding to each report are used to characterize how the near-storm environment evolves across the EET, and whether these changes influence the mode, frequency, and tornadic likelihood of their associated storms. High-shear, high-CAPE (HSHC) environments are contrasted with high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments to highlight physical processes governing storm maintenance and tornadogenesis in the absence of large instability. Lastly, statistical analysis is performed to determine which aspects of the near-storm environment most effectively discriminate between tornadic (or significantly tornadic) and nontornadic storms towards constructing new sounding-derived forecast guidance parameters for multiple modal and environmental combinations. Results indicate that HSLC environments evolve differently than HSHC environments, particularly for non-supercell (e.g., quasi-linear convective system) modes. These low-CAPE environments sustain higher values of low-level shear and storm-relative helicity (SRH) and destabilize post-sunset – potentially compensating for minimal buoyancy. Furthermore, the existence of HSLC storm environments pre-sunset increases the likelihood of non-supercellular tornadoes post-sunset. Existing forecast guidance metrics such as the significant tornado parameter (STP) remain the most skillful predictors of HSHC tornadoes. However, HSLC tornado prediction can be improved by considering variables like precipitable water, downdraft CAPE, and effective inflow base.

Observations and Predictability of a High-Impact Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband over Southern California on 2 February 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 2083-2097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Forest Cannon ◽  
Nina S. Oakley ◽  
Chad W. Hecht ◽  
Allison Michaelis ◽  
Jason M. Cordeira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern California ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
Forecast Guidance

AbstractShort-duration, high-intensity rainfall in Southern California, often associated with narrow cold-frontal rainbands (NCFR), threaten life and property. While the mechanisms that drive NCFRs are relatively well understood, their regional characteristics, specific contribution to precipitation hazards, and their predictability in the western United States have received little research attention relative to their impact. This manuscript presents observations of NCFR physical processes made during the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance field campaign on 2 February 2019 and investigates the predictability of the observed NCFR across spatiotemporal scales and forecast lead time. Dropsonde data collected along transects of an atmospheric river (AR) and its attendant cyclone during rapid cyclogenesis, and radiosonde observations during landfall 24 h later, are used to demonstrate that a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model skillfully reproduces the physical processes responsible for the development and maintenance of the impactful NCFR. Ensemble simulations provide quantitative uncertainty information on the representation of these features in numerical weather prediction and instill confidence in the utility of WRF as a forecast guidance tool for short- to medium-range prediction of mesoscale precipitation processes in landfalling ARs. This research incorporates novel data and methodologies to improve forecast guidance for NCFRs impacting Southern California. While this study focuses on a single event, the outlined approach to observing and predicting high-impact weather across a range of spatial and temporal scales will support regional water management and hazard mitigation, in general.

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