The prediction of two cases of severe convection: implications for forecast guidance

2002 ◽  
Vol 80 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 165-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. Speer ◽  
L. M. Leslie
2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Beccalli ◽  
Saverio Bozzolan ◽  
Andrea Menini ◽  
Philip Molyneux

Author(s):  
Luke J. LeBel ◽  
Brian H. Tang ◽  
Ross A. Lazear

AbstractThe complex terrain at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York has an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has concluded that terrain-channeled flow in the Mohawk and Hudson valleys likely contributes to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during severe weather events such as the historic 31 May 1998 event that produced a strong (F3) tornado in Mechanicville, New York.The goal of this study is to further examine the impact of terrain channeling on severe convection by analyzing a high-resolution WRF model simulation of the 31 May 1998 event. Results from the simulation suggest that terrain-channeled flow resulted in the localized formation of an enhanced low-level moisture gradient, resembling a dryline, at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys. East of this boundary, the environment was characterized by stronger low-level wind shear and greater low-level moisture and instability, increasing tornadogenesis potential. A simulated supercell intensified after crossing the boundary, as the larger instability and streamwise vorticity of the low-level inflow was ingested into the supercell updraft. These results suggest that terrain can have a key role in producing mesoscale inhomogeneities that impact the evolution of severe convection. Recognition of these terrain-induced boundaries may help in anticipating where the risk of severe weather may be locally enhanced.


2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-217
Author(s):  
Xiaoding Yu ◽  
Yongguang Zheng
Keyword(s):  

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 691-702 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Doswell

Abstract. A review of severe convection in the context of geophysical hazards is given. Societal responses to geophysical hazards depend, in part, on the ability to forecast the events and the degree of certainty with which forecasts can be made. In particular, the spatio-temporal specificity and lead time of those forecasts are critical issues. However, societal responses to geophysical hazards are not only dependent on forecasting. Even perfect forecasts might not be sufficient for a meaningful societal response without the development of considerable infrastructure to allow a society to respond properly and in time to mitigate the hazard. Geophysical hazards of extreme magnitude are rare events, a fact that tends to make funding support for appropriate preparations difficult to obtain. Focusing on tornadoes as a prototypical hazard from severe convective storms, the infrastructure for dealing with them in the USA is reviewed. Worldwide implications of the experience with severe convective storms in the USA are discussed, with an emphasis on its relevance to the situation in Europe.


2013 ◽  
Vol 140 (682) ◽  
pp. 1684-1699 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Nisi ◽  
P. Ambrosetti ◽  
L. Clementi

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