أثر تطور أسعار النفط على السياسة المالية للجزائر خلال فترة 2000 - 2015 = The Effect of the Evolution of Oil Prices on the Fiscal Policy of Algeria during the Period of 2000 - 2015

2016 ◽  
pp. 83-91
Author(s):  
حمزة بن الزين ◽  
وليد قرونقة
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Oil Prices

Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 605-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amany A. El Anshasy ◽  
Michael D. Bradley
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Policy Response

Market nerves roil Turkey and Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Guidance

Significance Markets have taken badly the Fed's more hawkish policy guidance for 2017, not expecting such a shift in monetary policy so soon. The shift in US monetary policy comes just as the ECB is preparing the ground for the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. While Turkish assets are the most vulnerable partly because of the severe escalation in political risk, the Polish zloty is also at risk thanks mainly to its status as one of the most liquid EM currencies. Impacts Investors see global financial markets at an inflection point as monetary policy gives way to fiscal policy as the main source of stimulus. This monetary-to-fiscal shift will fuel uncertainty about the direction of asset prices. Rising oil prices will allay concerns about deflation in the euro-area. As major Emerging Europe currencies suffer, the ruble is rising against the dollar amid oil price rises and Trump’s Russia-friendly remarks.

Gulf Cooperation Council

Policy Papers ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (66) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Growth Environment ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Global Growth

Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.

scholarly journals Oil Shocks and the Excise Duty Tax in a DSGE Model Setting

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-69
Author(s):  
Črt Lenarčič
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Excise Duty

Abstract This paper sets up a small open economy general equilibrium model operating in a monetary union. Exogenous oil shocks that hit the modelled economy are alleviated by introducing a pro-cyclical excise duty tax rule on oil prices. It provides a model-based theoretical background for studying a fiscal response of curbing the negative effects of volatile global oil prices on inflation. Against this backdrop, we estimate the key parameters of the DSGE model and simulate different responses of the fiscal policy tax rule, based on different values of the responsiveness of the excise duty parameter.

scholarly journals Fiscal policy and oil factor: Evaluation of the effects in global economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 07023
Author(s):  
Tapdig Guluzada ◽  
Esmira Guluzada
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Research background: Today, the acceptance of fiscal policy decisions necessitates the analysis of policy efficiency with the help of optimization issues, the study of cause-and-effect relationships between budget expenditures and macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, revenues, and the evaluation of a number of econometric models among all. The need for these areas makes it important to study and analyze the effects of fiscal policy on the economy, which allows to justify the relevance of the topic of the article. Purpose of the article: The article is devoted to the assessment of the fiscal and economic consequences of changes in oil prices in the world market, as well as the study of the relationship between state budget revenues and government expenditure in Azerbaijan. It was revealed that a 1% increase in oil prices, in the long run, increased Azerbaijan’s GDP by 0.52% and state budget expenditures by 0.88%. The calculations allow to conclude that there is a high correlation between government spending and state budget revenues in Azerbaijan. The obtained result indicates a positive relationship between the aforementioned economic variables. Methods: The most common method of analyzing the possible causal relationship between macroeconomic indicators is the causality test proposed by Granger in 1969. However, from a methodological point of view, the application of this test to study the causal relationship between economic indicators requires these indicators to be stationary. This statistical feature can be violated in the case of the economic indicator having the single root elements. To do this, we tested the Unit root problem of the variable using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Simultaneously, a number of other important features of the evaluated models were tested and the adequacy of the models was confirmed. Findings & Value added: As a result of the research, it was determined that there is a short-term and long-term causal relationship between world oil prices and Azerbaijan’s GDP and state budget expenditures. According to the results, a 1 percent increase in oil prices leads to the increase of the current level of GDP growth in Azerbaijan by 0.20 percent in the short term, and by 0.52 percent in the long term. Parallelly, it was revealed that a 1 percent increase in world oil prices leads to a 0.88 percent increase in Azerbaijan’s state budget expenditures in the long run. The correlation between Azerbaijan’s government expenditures and state budget revenues was analyzed, and a high correlation between these two macroeconomic indicators was identified.

Fiscal sustainability challenges in the new normal of low oil prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Assil El Mahmah ◽  
Magda Kandil
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Growth ◽  
Oil Revenues

Purpose Given the persistence of low oil prices and the continued shrinking of government revenues, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries continue to adapt to the new normal of the oil price environment, with a focus on pressing ahead with subsidies’ reforms and measures to increase non-oil revenues, as well as accelerating debt issuance, which raise concerns about fiscal sustainability and the implications on macroeconomic stability. Design/methodology/approach The purpose of this paper is to examine the sustainability of fiscal policy in GCC by exploring governments’ reaction to rising public debt accumulation via the estimation of a fiscal reaction function to higher debt. Subsequently, the paper compares the obtained results with other similar and non-similar groups, in terms of economic structures and oil dependency, to understand how some macroeconomic factors affect differently the fiscal policy responses, in a context of oil price shocks and high price volatility. Findings The results show that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, which means that GCC are increasing the pace of reforms and the fiscal primary balance as they issue more debt to ensure a sustainable fiscal policy. The evidence is consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort, but at lower debt levels, countries still have the space to increase spending without jeopardizing debt sustainability as long as they remain committed to fiscal reforms to increase the primary balance. The evidence supports the notion that the region’s public finances have improved in response to recent fiscal adjustments. However, national experiences differ considerably, especially given variation in the fiscal breakeven prices against the new normal of low oil prices. Moreover, the findings reveal that various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth, openness and the oil price, were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. The combined effects of low oil prices and high degree of openness warrant further efforts to reform the budget to increase the primary balance while safeguarding priority spending tomobilize non-energy growth and ensure debt sustainability in GCC. Originality/value Given recent experiences and the “low for long” oil price, policy priorities and reforms are necessary in oil-dependent economies, including GCC, to ensure macroeconomic sustainability. Sustaining the momentum of non-energy growth would reduce continued dependency of GCC economies on oil revenues and fiscal spending in the medium-term, creating a bigger scope for private sector participation in economic activity and increasing the prospects of further diversification away from long dependency on oil price volatility and their adverse implications on the fiscal budget and economic cycles.

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