Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries

Significance This puts the economy on track for meeting the government's goal of 'approximately 7%' growth in 2015. The GDP figures soothe jangled nerves after a stock market rout that saw the nominal value of the Shanghai stock market fall by 3 trillion dollars. Impacts The stabilising economy and firm policy response should stabilise oil prices as fears of a hard landing ease. Improved momentum in housing sales will help fiscal revenues, likely to be spent on infrastructure investment and health projects. Emerging-market exporters to China will need to adapt to the economy's changing composition.

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Chapter II. The World Economy

National Institute Economic Review ◽

10.1177/002795018912900103 ◽

1989 ◽

Vol 129 ◽

pp. 22-37

Author(s):

R.J. Barrell ◽

Andrew Gurney

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

World Economy ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Policy Response ◽

Recent Interest ◽

Inflation Rates ◽

The World

Our recent forecasts have warned of growing inflationary pressures in the world economy. The policy response to these has been robust, and interest rates have risen markedly over the last year; consequently there are now signs that inflationary pressures are receding. Chart 1 illustrates the recent interest-rate developments, and chart 2 recent and prospective inflation rates for the major 4 economies. Oil prices have weakened over the last three months, and commodity prices, especially those for metals and minerals, have been falling.

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How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises?

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.1442263 ◽

2009 ◽

Author(s):

Emanuele Baldacci ◽

Sanjeev Gupta ◽

Carlos Mulas-Granados

Keyword(s):

Fiscal Policy ◽

Banking Crises ◽

Policy Response

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Chad

IMF Staff Country Reports ◽

10.5089/9781513552088.002 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (231) ◽

Author(s):

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Health Care System ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Terms Of Trade ◽

Policy Response ◽

Country Report ◽

Trade Shocks ◽

Economic Shock ◽

Severe Recession

Chad’s economy has been severely impacted by the twin Covid-19 pandemic and terms of trade shocks. A national lockdown to contain the spread of the virus, disruptions in supply chains, and a drop in international oil prices are curtailing economic activity and weakening the outlook. While the authorities’ policy response has been timely and proactive, the economic shock and containment policies are triggering a severe recession, resulting in significant social costs and urgent balance of payment and budget financing needs. These are estimated at 7.0 percent of non-oil GDP compared to 4.6 percent in IMF Country Report No. 20/134. The pandemic is unfolding in a context of rising regional and domestic insecurity and an already weak health care system, which are exacerbating Chad’s vulnerabilities.

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Sustainability of Brazilian fiscal policy, once again: corrective policy response over time

Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo) ◽

10.1590/0101-4161201545247vil ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 45 (2) ◽

pp. 437-458

Author(s):

Viviane Luporini

Keyword(s):

Fiscal Policy ◽

Policy Response ◽

Reaction Function ◽

Average Increase ◽

Monthly Data ◽

Percent Increase ◽

Fiscal Reaction Function ◽

Primary Surplus ◽

Sample Window ◽

Over Time

<title>Abstract</title><p>This paper estimates a fiscal reaction function for Brazil and investigates how the government's fiscal reaction has changed over time when controlling for cyclical variations in output and the relative participation of indexed debt. Using monthly data since 1991, we estimate a rolling reaction function with a one observation step and a sample-window of 12 observations. Our results indicate that the government's fiscal response has been such that a one percent increase in the debt-GDP ratio can be associated to an average increase in the primary surplus of approximately 0.096% over GDP or 9.6 basis points; the government's fiscal reaction has become more stable but less responsive to the debt-income level after 2000 and assumed a declining trend after 2006.</p>

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