أثر التضخم على عوائد أسهم قطاعات سوق العراق للأوراق المالية : تحليل نموذج الانحدار الذاتي ذو الإبطاء الموزعة للمدة 2005 - 2015 = The Impact of Inflation on Stock Returns in Iraqi Stock Market : An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis for Period 2005 - 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-117
Author(s):  
أحمد حسين بتال ◽  
سراب عبد الكريم مطر
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 097674791989890
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The study explores the relationship between consumer confidence, household private consumer expenditure and other related macroeconomic financial variables for Brazil, a major, upper middle, income, Latin American country. It is widely discussed in the literature that the consumer confidence is an initial guide to the future behaviour of the economy based on the consumption path. Thus, a rise in the confidence of the consumer would lead to rising household consumption behaviour, which would percolate to accelerate economic growth. The study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to measure the effects of changes in consumer sentiment on private consumer spending, taking into consideration the significance of other financial variables, namely the rate of interest, stock market index, the exchange rate, inflation and unemployment trends. The study employs monthly data from the 4th month of 1995 to the 10th month of 2018. The bounds test of the NARDL suggests the presence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables. The model estimation affirms the presence of asymmetries in the behaviour of the major explanatory variables. In the short run, there are both positive and negative asymmetric impacts of consumer confidence index (CCI) on consumer expenditure, while the rate of interest has only negative asymmetries. In the long run, unemployment changes, stock market fluctuations, interest rate variation and alterations in the CCI shape the behaviour of consumer spending at the household level in Brazil. So, the consumers are able to perceive the signalling of the future behaviour of the market and contribute through consumption spending. JEL: C22; D12; E21; O54

scholarly journals FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND CO2 EMISSIONS NEXUS IN NIGERIA: AN APPLICATION OF ARDL APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Kabiru Saidu Musa ◽  
Sulaiman Chindo ◽  
Rabiu Maijama'a
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

The paper investigated the impact of financial development on CO2 emissions in Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. In the process of investigating the impact, Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philip Perron, as well as the Zivot-Andrew structural breaks, unit root tests were applied. Their results indicated that financial development, level of income, and CO2 emissions were stationary at the first difference and that of Zivot-Andrew structural breaks indicated a mixture of integration. Cointegration relationship among the variables was established through autoregressive distributed lag model bounds test. The autoregressive distributed lag model long-and-short run models results indicated that financial development and income level significantly negatively impact the CO2 emissions. The suggestion based on these results is that financial development and income level help in financing clean projects in the long-and-short runs. The Granger causality result revealed bidirectional causality from financial development to CO2 emissions, income level to CO2 emissions, and financial development to income level. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that financial development and income level have contributed less to CO2 emissions, and impulse response function results revealed that CO2 emissions respond negatively to shocks in financial development and income level. Therefore, we recommend expanding the Nigerian financial market in financing clean projects for a clean environment alongside checking income generation activities that bring about emissions of CO2, such as burning trees for charcoal production in the forest, among others.Keywords: Financial market development, CO2 emissions, ARDL approachJEL Classification: G20, Q53, C32

scholarly journals The Asymmetric Effect of Sukuk on Government Budget: Dealing with Deficit in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-104
Author(s):  
Seyf Eddine Benbekhti ◽  
Hadjer Boulila ◽  
Fethi Benladghem ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Islamic Religion ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Shed Light

Islamic economists sought to find transactions that fit and conform to the principles of Islamic religion, where Islamic bonds were one of the most critical products compatible with Islam. This study aims to shed light on the impact of Sukuk as one of the alternatives available for funding expenditures and deficit in Malaysia. This research using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) during the period 1990-2016. After identifying the asymmetric effect and the dynamic multiplier of Sukuk on government budget balance during the fluctuations of the exchange rate of the Ringgit, we have found that Islamic bonds are a very useful tool in financing deficit making Malaysia a pioneering experience in the field of Islamic engineering

scholarly journals The Impact of Financial Development on Carbon Emission: Evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 6959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyuan Guo ◽  
Yanfang Hu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper studies the impact of financial development on carbon emissions in China from 1997 to 2016. First, this paper uses the entropy method to construct a synthetical index to measure the financial development. Meanwhile, a two-dimensional panel framework is introduced to group provinces in the panel analysis. The estimation results of the time series autoregressive distributed lag model show that for China as a whole, there is a weak carbon emissions reduction effect of financial development, whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect. The estimation results of the panel autoregressive distributed lag model also support that an increase in financial development suppresses carbon emissions. Although financial development inhibits carbon emissions both in the short run and in the long run, the absolute value of the long-term coefficient of financial development is significantly greater than that of the short-term coefficient.

scholarly journals Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987-2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Oyetunji David Olalere ◽  
Muhammad Nuruddeen Isa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry in Nigeria using time series data from 1987 to 2019. The objective of this research is to establish the Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987- 2019. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) method was used. The findings from the study revealed that Sales volume (LSAV (-1)) at one lag period and Completely knocked down (LCKD) at lag value have significant impact on economic growth while Exchange rate (EXCR) is not significant. Interest rate and inflation rate appear to be statistically significant in determining economic growth at their contemporaneous values. Hence, we conclude that Sales Volume and Completely Knocked Down in Automotive Industry positively impacted on the economic growth in Nigeria over the period under study We therefore recommend that government should encourage an increase in sales volume for the economic growth status to keep enjoying positive contributions to the automotive sector in Nigeria.

scholarly journals EVIDENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF THE DEVALUATION OF CURRENCY ON INFLATION:

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Ahmed Balarabe Musa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

The research is aimed at evaluating the existence of asymmetry or otherwise of the impact of devaluation of currency on inflation in Malaysia for the period 1970 – 2017. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) was used as the evaluation econometric tool of the research. The findings of the study reveal that devaluation of currency has an inflationary impact in both short run and long run. Whereas, revaluation of currency does not have any impact neither in the short run nor in the long run. This confirms the upward flexibility of the impact of the increases in the changes in the exchange rate on inflation at the same time reaffirms its rigidity downward.

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