scholarly journals Business Cycles Indicators and Short-term Forecasts of Polish Industry Production Index

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-79
Author(s):  
Paweł M. Kolba ◽  
Radosław Kotkowski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of using popular business cycle indicators on the forecasts of industry production index. Research is conducted on Polish economy, by using methodology proposed by M. Klein.

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization of a small open EU-candidate country’s economy with the EU economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Filipovski ◽  
Predrag Trpeski ◽  
Jane Bogoev
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Candidate Country ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
The Republic ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The objectives of this paper are to empirically identify business cycles in a small open EU-candidate country such as the Republic of Macedonia and to assess the degree of synchronization of the country?s business cycle with the cycle of the EU economy. Towards the first objective, we apply linear and non-linear methods for delineating the production gap cycle in the Macedonian economy. As for the second objective, we apply autoregressive methods to assess the size and speed of cyclical adjustment of the Macedonian economy to output shocks to the Euro-zone economy. The results of our analysis suggest a high degree of synchronization of the Macedonian business cycles with the cycles of the EU economy. Also, the shocks in economic activity in the Euro-zone economy are transmitted almost instantaneously, and with a large magnitude, to the Macedonian economy. Finally, the impact of the Euro-zone output contraction is less pronounced than the impact of the Euro-zone output expansion, suggesting an impact of the country?s autonomous countercyclical economic policies.

scholarly journals A Multi – Speed Europe, and the Peripherality of Poland

e-Finanse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-44
Author(s):  
Mateusz Mierzejewski ◽  
Karolina Palimąka
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Polish Economy

AbstractIn recent years, research on the synchronization of business cycles in economies has been undertaken more than once. This is a desirable phenomenon especially for the European Union. The aim of the article is to verify selected macroeconomic indicators that characterize the economies of countries belonging to the European Union in relation to Poland, thus presenting convergence of dynamic cycles of changes in socio-economic sphere indicators: inflation rate, unemployment rate, short-term interest rates, and GDP. For this purpose, a cross-spectral analysis was used which allows us to show the occurring fluctuations of different lengths, as well as to compare the strength of the relation of changes between selected indicators. According to the conducted analyses, it was noted that the Polish economy (in the perspective of long-term changes) is a determinant of changes for highly developed countries.

scholarly journals Rynek mięsa w Polsce w dobie koronawirusa SARS-Cov-2

2020 ◽  
Vol 20(35) (3) ◽  
pp. 53-65
Author(s):  
Robert Mroczek
Keyword(s):  
Food Processing ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Meat Industry ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Commodity Production ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Meat Market

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 virus on the meat market in Poland. The meat market is an important part of the Polish economy. Production of slaughter animals (pork, beef and poultry) accounts for over 1/3 of agricultural commodity production, and the meat industry (red meat and poultry) is the largest branch of food processing. The COVID-19 pandemic, which also reached Poland, did not significantly shake this market. A sign of the introduced restrictions in social and economic life was a short-term massive purchase of food with an extended shelf life. Lockdown slightly changed the eating and shopping habits of Poles. In the first half of 2020, exports of beef and poultry decreased by 3-5%, and exports of pork decreased by 28% compared to the first half of 2019. The meat market continued to struggle with African Swine Fever (ASF) and, in addition, with bird flu. The HoReCa segment was the most affected part of the market.

scholarly journals Regional business cycles in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (146) ◽  
pp. 441-454
Author(s):  
Joanna SPYCHAŁA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Morphological Features ◽  
Business Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Industry Research ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Polish Economy

Purpose: The main goal of the considerations presented hereinbelow is a presentation of the course of action as well as an analysis of crucial features of cyclical fluctuations differentiated as entities in the Polish economy as well as in all provinces in the period of the first quarter of 2005 until the second quarter of 2019 based on the rate of the sold production of industry. Design/methodology/approach: A share of the respective regions in the structure of the sold production of industry was assessed. Finally, an attempt of assessing the rate of convergence in terms of morphology of a national chain with time chains of the respective regions was undertaken. In the thesis, a hypothesis is being stated that the most synchronised with the cycle of Poland are regions having the biggest share in the sold production of industry. Methodological bases of the research process as well as an empirical assessment of the regional business cycles in Poland were preceded by theoretical analyses concerning the notion, the core as well as the morphological features of the regional business fluctuations. Findings: Making an assessment of the progression of business cycle fluctuations of the economy of Poland as a whole as well as business cycle fluctuations of Polish provinces in the period between the first quarter 2005 and the second quarter of 2019, one may conclude the progression is not uniform. The variation depends to a large extent on the specificity of development of each region. Provinces which have a lower share in the national structure of the sold production of industry demonstrate higher sensitivity to economic shocks. The highest degree of compliance with the national cycle has been demonstrated in provinces with the highest rate of share in the structure of the sold production of industry. Research limitations/implications: The conducted research, as well as the obtained results might thus be a basis for taking up more extensive analyses in that field, comprising a discussion on the remaining morphological features of business cycles. Originality/value: Determining the course of cyclical fluctuations in Poland as well as in its respective provinces has been made.

scholarly journals Fiat Lux and Crony Capitalism - The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Automobile Industry in USA and Europe from 2001 to 2010

2018 ◽  
pp. 107-163
Author(s):  
Patrick Reimers
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fractional Reserve Banking ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Impact

This paper focuses on detecting the short-term and long-term effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the US-American and European automotive market in the period from 2001 to 2010, looking at expansionary monetary policies, credit expansions, bail-outs and scrappage campaigns. The study aims to explain the reasons of the latest subprime-crisis, whose negative effects were in particular visible in the period from 2008 to 2010, using the Austrian Business Cycle theory to detect its validity for the automotive industry. As for fis-cal policies, the impact of incentives such as scrappage campaigns and other state interventions on the automotive industry will be critically evaluated. The target is to detect causalities, distinguishing between apparent symptoms and actual causes, to define whether artificial short-term economic booms caused by expansive monetary policies and public interventionism have ultimately led to the recent economic crisis. However, apart from empirically evaluating the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the automotive sector within the men-tioned period, this paper also pretends to highlight the general crucial rele-vance of dynamic efficiency and entrepreneurial creativity and consequently the automotive OEMs’ need to detect market niches in order to optimize their company’s sustainability and competitiveness. Keywords: Fiscal policies, monetary policies, automotive industry, credit expan-sion, fractional reserve banking, public incentives, bailouts, USA, Europe, Aus-trian Business Cycle Theory JEL Classification: E12, E14, E32, E43, E51, E52, E62, E63, G33, H21, N12, N14 Resumen: Este trabajo se centra en detectar los efectos a corto y largo plazo de las políticas monetarias y fiscales en el mercado automotriz estadounidense y europeo en el período de 2001 a 2010, analizando las políticas monetarias expansivas, las expansiones de crédito, los ‘bailouts’ y las campañas de des-guace. El objetivo del estudio es explicar los orígenes de la última crisis sub-prime, cuyos efectos negativos fueron particularmente visibles en el período de 2008 a 2010, utilizando la teoría austriaca del ciclo económico para detectar su validez para la industria automotriz. En cuanto a las políticas fiscales, se evaluará críticamente el impacto de incentivos como las campañas de des-guace y otras intervenciones estatales en la industria automotriz. El objetivo es detectar causalidades, distinguiendo entre los síntomas aparentes y las causas reales, para definir si, en última instancia, el auge económico artificial, cau-sado por políticas monetarias expansivas y el intervencionismo estatal, con-dujo a la reciente crisis económica. Sin embargo, aparte de evaluar empíricamente el impacto de las políticas monetarias y fiscales en el sector automotriz dentro del período mencionado, este artículo también pretende resaltar la relevancia crucial general de la ‘eficiencia dinámica’ y la ‘creativi-dad empresarial’ y, en consecuencia, la necesidad de detectar nichos de mer-cado para optimizar la sostenibilidad y la competitividad de una empresa. Palabras clave: políticas fiscales, políticas monetarias, industria automotriz, expansión de crédito, banca de reserva fraccionaria, incentivos públicos, res-cates, Estados Unidos, Europa, teoría austriaca del ciclo económico. Clasificación JEL: E12, E14, E32, E43, E51, E52, E62, E63, G33, H21, N12, N14

scholarly journals Statistical analysis of business cycle fluctuations in Poland before and after the crisis

Equilibrium ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Łukasz Lenart ◽  
Błażej Mazur ◽  
Mateusz Pipień
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Inference Method ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Polish Economy

The main objective of the paper is to investigate properties of business cycles in the Polish economy before and after the recent crisis. The essential issue addressed here is whether there is statistical evidence that the recent crisis has affected the properties of the business cycle fluctuations. In order to improve robustness of the results, we do not confine ourselves to any single inference method, but instead use different groups of statistical tools, including non-parametric methods based on subsampling and parametric Bayesian methods. We examine monthly series of industrial production (from January 1995 till December 2014), considering the properties of cycles in growth rates and in deviations from long-run trend. Empirical analysis is based on the sequence of expanding-window samples, with the shortest sample ending in December 2006. The main finding is that the two frequencies driving business cycle fluctuations in Poland correspond to cycles with periods of 2 and 3.5 years, and (perhaps surprisingly) the result holds both before and after the crisis. We, therefore, find no support for the claim that features (in particular frequencies) that characterize Polish business cycle fluctuations have changed after the recent crisis. The conclusion is unanimously supported by various statistical methods that are used in the paper, however, it is based on relatively short series of the data currently available.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization among member countries of Eurozone during the process of European integration

2007 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 75-90
Author(s):  
Svatopluk Kapounek ◽  
Lubor Lacina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The paper deals with the correlation of the business cycles between the Eurozone member states in the period 1957–2003. The analysed period is divided into the four parts (1959–1972, 1973–1985, 1986–1994, 1995–2003), which correspond to integration waves and relate approximately to the European integration process. The empirical analysis is based on the time series correlation. The authors discuss the impact of the EC enlargements on the business cycles correlation as well as on qualitative changes in the interaction between the states.

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