Kondratieff Cycles in the Economies of Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and France

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 26-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Иванова ◽  
O. Ivanova ◽  
Басовская ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
The Third ◽  
Half Wave ◽  
Cyclical Component ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
National Production ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Historical Periods

The paper concerns identifying Kondratieff cycles in the economies of Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and France. Studied are the historical periods beginning from the second half of the 19th century based on time series of real per capita GDP. The study is made through construction of econometric models, including the cyclical component. Modeling has helped to identify Kondratieff cycles in the national production. The upward half-wave of the third Kondratieff cycle in Italy emerged in 1897, in the Netherlands — in 1910, in Germany — in 1885, in France — in 1881. The upward half-wave of the fourth Kondratieff cycle emerged in Italy in 1948, in the Netherlands — in 1946, in Germany — in 1958, and in France — in 1855. The upward half-wave of the fifth Kondratieff cycle emerged in Italy in 1989, in the Netherlands — in 1990, in Germany — in 1999, and in France — in 1994.

Kondratieff Cycles in Developed Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century

The objective of this paper is to identify Kondratieff cycles in the developed economies. Time series spectral analysis of real per capita GDP of the developed countries and Brazil is performed. Also studied are time series for the period from the 19th century to 2008. As a result Kondratieff cycles (waves) are found out in the economic dynamics of all the countries surveyed, except for Finland. The power of Kondratieff cycles in the economic dynamics is estimated to fall in the range of 23 to 61% of the total power of all economic cycles with the periods of 2 to 100 years. The Kondratieff cycles can be found in a number of economies in the period of 19th — 20th centuries. It allows to distinguish the three moderntime Kondratieff waves in the said countries and to evaluate productivity of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies. However in a number of countries the Kondratieff cycles show up only in the 20th century. So for these countries only one or two modern Kondratieff waves can be clearly identified, making it possible to evaluate productivity of only the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies.

New Technological Ways in the Regions of Russia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Post Industrial

Distribution of new — the fifth and sixth technological ways in economy of regions of Russia is investigated. For economic evaluation of technological structures hysterical time series of real per capita GDP of Great Britain are used. Construction of econometric models of cyclical trends has allowed establishing the date of the beginning of the upward half-waves of the fourth and fifth Kondratieff cycles. For the construction of econometric models of technological structures was assumed that the beginning of upward half-waves cycles coincide with the beginning of the upward wave of new orders, since the beginning of the dominance of another way of life and a torque of the withering away of the old order. We used piecewise linear model orders. By the simulation it was found, that the relic and fourth technological orders provide a contribution to real GDP per capita value of 4000 Gehry-Hemis dollars in 1990. The contribution of the new — the fifth and sixth in the Russian economy is estimated as the excess of the value of real per capita GDP over the contribution of relic and fourth technological structures, evaluated according to the UK. This has allowed for the first time to give an economic assessment of the contribution of new orders in the Russian economy. It now has exceeded 50%. By degree of distribution of new ways in the groups of regions is irregular. The regional group in the economy where new ways are not observed, the economic policy directed to the continued industrialization. In the regions, where new ways make contribution to the economies, economic policy should focus on the development of post-industrial economies.

The Finnish Economy Through the Prism of the Theory of Long Waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 16-22
Author(s):  
Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Иванова ◽  
O. Ivanova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Long Waves ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Third ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The article presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Finland on the basis of real GDP per capita over the period of 1860–2008 years. The using of economic and mathematical modeling has allowed estimating the power of long duration business cycles, revealing the chronological framework of long waves: the third, fourth and fifth. Kondratieff’s theory has served as a methodological basis for the study of processes: the emergence, the domination and the withering away of technological structures. Regression analysis has allowed establishing the productivity of different technological structures in the Finnish economy.

Efficiency of Technological Modes in the Economy of the United Kingdom

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 13-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Half Wave ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Technological Mode

Through modeling the Kondratieff waves (cycles) the authors show, that the upward half-wave of the third Kondratieff wave in the economic dynamics of the UK emerged in 1887. Further, in 1926 emerged the upward half-wave of the fourth Kondratieff wave in the economic dynamics of the UK. The upward halfwave of the fifth Kondratieff wave in Britain’s economy emerged in 1985. The fifth wave is in place till nowadays. Modeling of technological modes has allowed to assess their efficiency as concerning the economy of the UK. The efficiency of relic modes, measured in terms of per capita GDP equals to £2805 measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the fourth technological mode equals to £1328, measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the fifth technological mode reaches £8739 measured in 2005 pounds sterling. The maximum efficiency of the sixth technological mode for the economy of the UK reaches £19 811 measured in 2005 pounds sterling.

The Results of Studying Long Economic Waves in the Kingdom of Denmark Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 64-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Research Results ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The paper presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Denmark based on the real per capita GDP dynamics over the period of 1820– 2008. The use of economic and mathematical modeling allowed to define the chronological frameworks of the third, the fourth and the fifth waves of economic cycles with the 50-years period.

Productivity of New Technological Ways in Economy of Russia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Models ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
National Production ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Modern Russian

The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of the economic dissemination of new technological structures in the Russian economy. Construction of econometric models of the contribution of technological structures in the shower US GDP allowed establishing their productivity. On this basis, we obtained estimates of the contribution of new — the fifth and sixth technological structures in the per capita GDP of Russia. It was found that in today’s Russia is not less than 40–45% of the national production is ensured by the new — the fifth and sixth technological structures. These economic assessments of the spread of new technological structures in modern Russian economy allow improving economic policies aimed at developing the country’s economy.

Kondratieff Waves and Technological Modes in Australia`s Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 40-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The Third ◽  
Maximum Productivity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
Technological Mode ◽  
Fourth Mode

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to determine the time of beginning of Kondratieff waves and origin of new technological modes and their productivity. The regression analysis of the time series of Australia real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 allowed to determine the date of beginning of the third, fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratieff cycles and the date of origin of the fourth, fifth and sixth technological modes in Australia`s economy. The results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fourth technological mode in Australia`s economy occurred in the late XIX century, the fifth — in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The modeling of technological modes` productivity allowed determining the productivity of relict and modern technological modes in the economy of Australia. The results showed that the productivity of relict modes in Australia`s economy is 3465 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the fourth mode is 4437 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990, the fifth — 8874 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the sixth mode in the economy of Australia is 26 888 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The results of the research may be used in order to evaluate the productivity of modern technological modes in Russian economy.

Optimum Structure of the Banking Market: How Many Banks Are Necessary for Russia?

2006 ◽  
pp. 75-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Moiseev
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Optimum Structure ◽  
Population Number ◽  
The Third ◽  
Banking Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Equilibrium Number

The number of classical banks in the world has reduced. In the majority of countries the number of banks does not exceed 200. The uniqueness of the Russian banking sector is that in this respect it takes the third place in the world after the USA and Germany. The paper reviews the conclusions of the economic theory about the optimum structure of the banking market. The empirical analysis shows that the number of banks in a country is influenced by the size of its territory, population number and GDP per capita. Our econometric estimate is that the equilibrium number of banks in Russia should be in a range of 180-220 units.

De windmolen

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-32
Author(s):  
JOS BAZELMANS
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Turn Of The Century ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
First Time ◽  
At Home

The windmill. The origins of a Dutch icon The windmill is an icon of the Netherlands. But when did this instrument acquire this symbolic role at home and abroad? After all, mills are also common outside of the Netherlands. In this essay, it is argued that during the second half of the 19th century, foreigners systematically identified the Netherlands and the windmill for the first time. More than in other countries, there was a varied use of mills in the Netherlands, large and robust mills and clusters of industrial mills. Within the Netherlands itself, development towards an iconic position is only visible around the turn of the century when the mill turned out to be a plus in tourist recruitment abroad and when mills were slowly disappearing from the landscape.

Weidebevloeiing in de Brabantse Scheeken

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-14
Author(s):  
HANS BLEUMINK
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Surface Irrigation ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Agricultural Water Management ◽  
History Of ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Water Boards

Historical surface irrigation of pastures in the Dutch province of Noord-Brabant: visible traces of a failed experiment In the second half of the 19th century, some major changes occurred in the water management of the eastern and southern provinces of the Netherlands. Unlike the low-lying western parts of the Netherlands which were characterised by polders and had a long history of formal water boards, the higher eastern and southern parts of the Netherlands were characterized by brook systems and sandy soils, and had no centralised water boards until 1850. From the 1850s onward, water boards were introduced in these higher regions as well, and agronomical scientists and organisations like the Nederlandse Heidemaatschappij endeavoured for the modernisation of agricultural water management. One of their priorities was the introduction of modern forms of surface irrigation of pastures, in order to increase crop yields. In various places modern irrigation systems were constructed. From the 1900s onward, these systems were abandoned due to the introduction of new chemical fertilizers, among others. This article describes the construction and abandonment of one of these modern irrigation systems that was located in Liempde, in the province of Noord-Brabant. The local farmers were not interested in the new technique, and within a few years the system was transformed in a poplar plantation. Nowadays, the area is part of a nature reserve. Nonetheless, the global layout of the irrigation system is still visible.

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