Improvement of Fictitious Play Based on Cognitive Hierarchy Theory

Abstract Predicting the states of the surrounding traffic is one of the major problems in automated driving. Maneuvers such as lane change, merge, and exit management could pose challenges in the absence of intervehicular communications and can benefit from driver behavior prediction. Predicting the motion of surrounding vehicles and trajectory planning need to be computationally efficient for real-time implementation. The main goal of this paper is to develop a fast algorithm that predicts the future states of the neighboring vehicles. The proposed workflow employs Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) along with an on-policy learning technique for fast trajectory planning in multi-lane highway traffic scenarios. Also, for the inclusion of behavioral aspects, cognitive hierarchy and level-K game theories are utilized to predict the reaction and decision of the surrounding drivers. Simulation case studies demonstrate that our proposed approach is real-time implementable and can often avoid collision in difficult simulated confrontations.

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Explaining Focal Points: Cognitive Hierarchy Theory versus Team Reasoning

The Economic Journal ◽

10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02304.x ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 120 (543) ◽

pp. 40-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 77

Author(s):

Nicholas Bardsley ◽

Judith Mehta ◽

Chris Starmer ◽

Robert Sugden

Keyword(s):

Hierarchy Theory ◽

Focal Points ◽

Team Reasoning ◽

Theory Versus ◽

Cognitive Hierarchy

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Focal points revisited: Team reasoning, the principle of insufficient reason and cognitive hierarchy theory

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ◽

10.1016/j.jebo.2016.10.004 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 133 ◽

pp. 74-86 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Nicholas Bardsley ◽

Aljaž Ule

Keyword(s):

Hierarchy Theory ◽

Focal Points ◽

Team Reasoning ◽

Cognitive Hierarchy ◽

Insufficient Reason ◽

Principle Of Insufficient Reason

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Managing conflict-generating invasive species in South Africa: Challenges and trade-offs

Bothalia ◽

10.4102/abc.v47i2.2160 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

Tsungai Zengeya ◽

Philip Ivey ◽

Darragh J. Woodford ◽

Olaf Weyl ◽

Ana Novoa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Invasive Species ◽

Risk Perception ◽

Alien Species ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Value Systems ◽

Hierarchy Theory ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Cognitive Hierarchy ◽

Negative Impacts

Background: This paper reviewed the benefits and negative impacts of alien species that are currently listed in the Alien and Invasive Species Regulations of the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act (Act no 10 of 2004) and certain alien species that are not yet listed in the regulations for which conflicts of interest complicate management. Objectives: Specifically, it identified conflict-generating species, evaluated the causes and driving forces of these conflicts and assessed how the conflicts have affected management. Method: A simple scoring system was used to classify the alien species according to their relative degree of benefits and negative impacts. Conflict-generating species were then identified and further evaluated using an integrated cognitive hierarchy theory and risk perception framework to identify the value systems (intrinsic and economic) and risk perceptions associated with each conflict. Results: A total of 552 alien species were assessed. Most of the species were classified as inconsequential (55%) or destructive (29%). Beneficial (10%) and conflict-generating (6%) species made a minor contribution. The majority (46%) of the conflict cases were associated with more than one value system or both values and risk perception. The other conflicts cases were based on intrinsic (40%) and utilitarian (14%) value systems. Conclusions: Conflicts based on value and risk perceptions are inherently difficult to resolve because authorities need to balance the needs of different stakeholders while meeting the mandate of conserving the environment, ecosystem services and human well-being. This paper uses the identified conflict-generating species to highlight the challenges and trade-offs of managing invasive species in South Africa.

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