scholarly journals Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Nordhaus

Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Up to now, nations have adopted minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to develop new projections of trends and impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results with those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if major climate-change policies are not taken. It suggests that it is unlikely that nations can achieve the 2°C target of international agreements, even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed. (JEL Q54, Q58)

Author(s):  
Nicola Cantore ◽  
Emilio Padilla

An abundant scientific literature about climate change economics points out that the future participation of developing countries in international environmental policies will depend on their amount of pay offs inside and outside specific agreements. Though these contributions represent a corner stone in the research field investigating future plausible international coalitions and the reasons behind the difficulties incurred over time to implement emissions stabilizing actions, they cannot disentangle satisfactorily the role that equality plays in inducing poor regions to tackle global warming. Scholars recently outline that a perceived fairness in the distribution of emissions would facilitate a wide spread participation in international agreements. In this chapter the authors overview the literature about distributional aspects of emissions by focusing on those contributions investigating past trends of emissions distribution through empirical data and future trajectories through simulations obtained by integrated assessment models. They will explain methodologies used to elaborate data and the link between “real data” and those coming from simulations. A particular attention will be devoted to the role that technological change will play in affecting the distribution of emissions over time and to how spillovers and experience diffusion could influence equality issues and future outcomes of policy negotiations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (05) ◽  
pp. 8-8
Author(s):  
Pam Boschee

Carbon credits, carbon taxes, and emissions trading systems are familiar terms in discussions about limiting global warming, the Paris Agreement, and net-zero emissions goals. A more recent addition to the glossary of climate policy is “carbon tariff.” While the concept is not new, it recently surfaced in nascent policymaking in the EU. In 2019, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a “carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)” as part of a proposed green deal. In March, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on a World Trade Organization (WTO)-compatible CBAM. A carbon tariff, or the EU’s CBAM, is a tax applied to carbon-intensive imports. Countries that have pledged to be more ambitious in reducing emissions—and in some cases have implemented binding targets—may impose carbon costs on their own businesses. Being eyed now are cross-border or overseas businesses that make products in countries in which no costs are imposed for emissions, resulting in cheaper carbon-intensive goods. Those products are exported to the countries aiming for reduced emissions. The concern lies in the risk of locally made goods becoming unfairly disadvantaged against competitors that are not taking similar steps to deal with climate change. A carbon tariff is being considered to level the playing field: local businesses in countries applying a tariff can better compete as climate policies evolve and are adopted around the world. Complying with WTO rules to ensure fair treatment, the CBAM will be imposed only on high-emitting industries that compete directly with local industries paying a carbon price. In the short term, these are likely to be steel, chemicals, fertilizers, and cement. The Parliament’s statement introduced another term to the glossary of climate policy: carbon leakage. “To raise global climate ambition and prevent ‘carbon leakage,’ the EU must place a carbon price on imports from less climate-ambitious countries.” It refers to the situation that may occur if businesses were to transfer production to other countries with laxer emission constraints to avoid costs related to climate policies. This could lead to an increase in total emissions in the higher-emitting countries. “The resolution underlines that the EU’s increased ambition on climate change must not lead to carbon leakage as global climate efforts will not benefit if EU production is just moved to non-EU countries that have less ambitious emissions rules,” the Parliament said. It also emphasized the tariff “must not be misused to further protectionism.” A member of the environment committee, Yannick Jadot, said, “It is a major political and democratic test for the EU, which must stop being naïve and impose the same carbon price on products, whether they are produced in or outside the EU, to ensure the most polluting sectors also take part in fighting climate change and innovate towards zero carbon. This will give us the best chance of remaining below the 1.5°C warming limit, whilst also pushing our trading partners to be equally ambitious in order to enter the EU market.” The Commission is expected to present a legislative proposal on a CBAM in the second quarter of 2021 as part of the European Green Deal.


2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anika Nasra Haque ◽  
Stelios Grafakos ◽  
Marijk Huijsman

Dhaka is one of the largest megacities in the world and its population is growing rapidly. Due to its location on a deltaic plain, the city is extremely prone to detrimental flooding, and risks associated with this are expected to increase further in the coming years due to global climate change impacts as well as the high rate of urbanization the city is facing. The lowest-lying part of Dhaka, namely Dhaka East, is facing the most severe risk of flooding. Traditionally, excess water in this part of the city was efficiently stored in water ponds and gradually drained into rivers through connected canals. However, the alarming increase in Dhaka’s population is causing encroachment of these water retention areas because of land scarcity. The city’s natural drainage is not functioning well and the area is still not protected from flooding, which causes major threats to its inhabitants. This situation increases the urgency to adapt effectively to current flooding caused by climate variability and also to the impacts of future climate change. Although the government is planning several adaptive measures to protect the area from floods, a systematic framework to analyze and assess them is lacking. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated framework for the assessment and prioritization of various (current and potential) adaptation measures aimed at protecting vulnerable areas from flooding. The study identifies, analyzes, assesses and prioritizes adaptive initiatives and measures to address flood risks in the eastern fringe area, and the adaptation assessment is conducted within the framework of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methodology. MCA facilitates the participation of stakeholders and hence allows normative judgements, while incorporating technical expertise in the adaptation assessment. Based on the assessment, adaptive measures are prioritized to indicate which actions should be implemented first. Such a participatory integrated assessment of adaptation options is currently lacking in the decision-making process in the city of Dhaka and could greatly help reach informed and structured decisions in the development of adaptation strategies for flood protection.


Significance US re-entry into the Paris Agreement will signal renewed climate engagement by Washington. Prospects for climate cooperation are better than they seemed a year ago, with net-zero targets being more widely adopted, alongside long-term ambition statements. Credibility will depend on substantial changes in near-term climate policies and the pursuit of ‘green recoveries’.


2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 1302002 ◽  
Author(s):  
ELMAR KRIEGLER ◽  
MASSIMO TAVONI ◽  
KEYWAN RIAHI ◽  
DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN

This paper provides an introduction to the Special issue of Climate Change Economics containing twelve papers describing findings of the LIMITS project. These papers assess post 2020 climate policies aimed at achieving the 2°C target. The assessment is based on an ensemble of scenarios consistently implemented by a suite of leading integrated assessment models. The scenarios, conceptualized as possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiation process, allow for a comprehensive assessment of the implementation of policies consistent with 2°C in the major economies, under different assumptions about medium-term action and its distribution across regions.


2020 ◽  
pp. 001391652094260
Author(s):  
Sojung Claire Kim ◽  
Di Pei ◽  
John E. Kotcher ◽  
Teresa A. Myers

The present study employed a longitudinal survey experiment with American adults to investigate whether cognitive and emotional appraisals of messages about climate change related health risks would mediate the relationships between participants’ individual differences (in political ideology and health) and their perceived harm to self and support for climate change policies. The study found that liberals and people with poorer health evaluated the messages as more useful and interesting and generated more negative emotions toward the negative health consequences of climate change. In turn, they reported higher perceived harm to self from climate change and stronger support for climate policies, compared to conservatives and people with better health.


Author(s):  
Daniel Yuichi Kono

Both trade and climate change policies affect the international competitiveness of carbon-intensive industries. This suggests that policy changes in one area may affect politics in the other. Does openness to international trade affect climate change politics? Do climate change policies affect the politics of trade? Does formally linking trade and climate policies via trade sanctions affect the prospects for cooperation in each domain? There are good theoretical reasons to believe that the answer to these questions is yes. Theoretically, each set of policies should affect the other, but these interactions could either encourage or discourage trade and climate cooperation. How trade and climate politics interact is thus an empirical question. Empirically, the overall picture is of a nascent but promising field of research. Extant studies provide indirect tests and suggestive evidence, but little in the way of firm conclusions. Only one point emerges clearly: progress in this area will require more and better data on national climate policies.


Subject Climate politics in Europe. Significance In Europe, climate change has shifted from being a peripheral to a central electoral issue; now mainstream parties are committing themselves to ambitious climate policies. However, overtime division will likely grow between those parties whose support is underpinned by business and conservative interests, and those who appeal strongly to younger voters. Climate change will also be a source of further competition between mainstream and national populist parties. Impacts Governing parties at the local, national and EU-levels will be judged increasingly on their environmental track-records. Most major infrastructure and non-renewable energy projects will face opposition from civil society through petitions and protests. Support for green parties could decline if traditional parties hiijack climate change policies.


2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
LAURENS M. BOUWER ◽  
W. J. WOUTER BOTZEN

An article by William D. Nordhaus (2010) in this journal examined the economic impacts by hurricanes in the USA, and the potential impacts of climate change on future hurricane damages. His analyses show that hurricane damages normalized over time for changes in GDP have increased significantly since the year 1900, at a rate of about 3.1% per year. Moreover, the results of Nordhaus show that hurricane damages increase with the ninth power of maximum wind speed, which is considerably higher than findings of other studies. We perform similar statistical analyses with different data series of hurricane damage, which are more accurately corrected for changes in exposure of assets over time. Our results do not indicate an upward trend in hurricane losses since 1900, which is in line with earlier studies, and indicates that climate change has not increased hurricane damage in the past. Moreover, although the relation between damage and maximum wind speed appears to be considerably higher than assumed by other studies, this elasticity is more likely to be the eighth-power of maximum wind speed. This finding is relevant since it implies that future climate change impacts on hurricane damage may be considerably lower than Nordhaus indicates.


2018 ◽  
Vol 09 (03) ◽  
pp. 1850008 ◽  
Author(s):  
INGMAR SCHUMACHER

We show that a policy maker who ignores regional data and instead relies on aggregated integrated assessment models is likely underestimating the carbon price and thus the required climate policy. Based on a simple theoretical model, we give conditions under which the Aggregation Dilemma is expected to play a role in climate change cost-benefit analysis. We then study the importance of the Aggregation Dilemma with the integrated assessment model RICE [Nordhaus and Boyer, (2000) Warning the World: Economic Models of Global Warming. MA: MIT Press]. Aggregating all regions of the RICE-99 model into one region yields a 40% lower social cost of carbon than the RICE model itself predicts. Based on extrapolating the results, a country-level integrated assessment model would give a more than eight times higher social cost of carbon compared to a fully aggregated model. We suggest that these tentative results require researchers to rethink the aggregation level used in integrated assessment models and to develop models at much lower levels of aggregation than currently available.


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