scholarly journals Social Learning with Coarse Inference

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Guarino ◽  
Philippe Jehiel

We study social learning by boundedly rational agents. Agents take a decision in sequence, after observing their predecessors and a private signal. They are unable to make perfect inferences from their predecessors' decisions: they only understand the relation between the aggregate distribution of actions and the state of nature, and make their inferences accordingly. We show that, in a discrete action space, even if agents receive signals of unbounded precision, there are asymptotic inefficiencies. In a continuous action space, compared to the rational case, agents overweight early signals. Despite this behavioral bias, eventually agents learn the realized state of the world and choose the correct action. (JEL D82, D83)

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 2281-2328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mira Frick ◽  
Ryota Iijima ◽  
Yuhta Ishii

We exhibit a natural environment, social learning among heterogeneous agents, where even slight misperceptions can have a large negative impact on long‐run learning outcomes. We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents' actions over time, where agents' actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, we show, first, that even arbitrarily small amounts of misperception about the type distribution can generate extreme breakdowns of information aggregation, where in the long run all agents incorrectly assign probability 1 to some fixed state of the world, regardless of the true underlying state. Second, any misperception of the type distribution leads long‐run beliefs and behavior to vary only coarsely with the state, and we provide systematic predictions for how the nature of misperception shapes these coarse long‐run outcomes. Third, we show that how fragile information aggregation is against misperception depends on the richness of agents' payoff‐relevant uncertainty; a design implication is that information aggregation can be improved by simplifying agents' learning environment. The key feature behind our findings is that agents' belief‐updating becomes “decoupled” from the true state over time. We point to other environments where this feature is present and leads to similar fragility results.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subramanian Sankaranarayanan ◽  
Sukriti Manna ◽  
Troy Loeffler ◽  
Rohit Batra ◽  
Suvo Banik ◽  
...  

Abstract Reinforcement learning (RL) approaches that combine a tree search with deep learning have found remarkable success in searching exorbitantly large, albeit discrete action spaces, as demonstrated recently in board games like chess, Shogi, and Go. Many real-world materials discovery and design applications, however, involve multi-dimensional search problems and learning domains that have continuous action spaces. Exploring high-dimensional potential energy surfaces (PES) of materials to represent inter- and intra-molecular interactions, for example, involves a continuous action search to find optimal potential parameters or coefficients. Traditionally, these searches are time consuming (often several years for a single system) and have been driven by human intuition and/or expertise and more recently by global/local optimization searches that have issues with convergence and/or do not scale well with the search dimensionality. Here, in a departure from discrete action and other gradient-based approaches, we introduce a RL strategy based on decision trees that incorporates modified rewards for improved exploration, efficient sampling during playouts, and a “window scaling scheme” for enhanced exploitation, to enable efficient and scalable search for continuous action space problems. Using high-dimensional artificial landscapes and control RL problems, we successfully benchmark our approach against popular global optimization schemes and state-of-the-art policy gradient methods, respectively. We further demonstrate its efficacy to perform high-throughput PES search for 54 different elemental systems across the Periodic table, in- including alkali, alkaline-earth, transition metals, metalloids, as well as non-metals. Using a well-sampled (∼165,000 configurations) first-principles derived training and test dataset, we demonstrate that the new class of RL trained bond-order potentials capture the size-dependent energetic landscape from few atom clusters to bulk (energy errors << 200 meV/atom over a 3-6 eV sampled range) as well as their dynamics (force errors << 0.5 eV/A over a 50-100 eV/A range). We analyze the error trends across different elements in the latent space and trace their origin to elemental structural diversity and the smoothness of the element energy surface. Finally, we run molecular dynamics using these RL trained potentials and perform a comprehensive test of dynamic stability of more than 40,000 clusters sampled for different elements across the Periodic table. Our newly developed high-quality potentials will enable accelerated nanoscale materials design and discovery. Broadly, our RL strategy will be applicable to many other physical science problems involving search over continuous action spaces.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (24) ◽  
pp. 5571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Yun Shin ◽  
Yong-Won Kang ◽  
Yong-Guk Kim

Drones with obstacle avoidance capabilities have attracted much attention from researchers recently. They typically adopt either supervised learning or reinforcement learning (RL) for training their networks. The drawback of supervised learning is that labeling of the massive dataset is laborious and time-consuming, whereas RL aims to overcome such a problem by letting an agent learn with the data from its environment. The present study aims to utilize diverse RL within two categories: (1) discrete action space and (2) continuous action space. The former has the advantage in optimization for vision datasets, but such actions can lead to unnatural behavior. For the latter, we propose a U-net based segmentation model with an actor-critic network. Performance is compared between these RL algorithms with three different environments such as the woodland, block world, and the arena world, as well as racing with human pilots. Results suggest that our best continuous algorithm easily outperformed the discrete ones and yet was similar to an expert pilot.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 163-197
Author(s):  
Marco Angrisani ◽  
Antonio Guarino ◽  
Philippe Jehiel ◽  
Toru Kitagawa

We study social learning in a continuous action space experiment. Subjects, acting in sequence, state their beliefs about the value of a good after observing their predecessors’ statements and a private signal. We compare the behavior in the laboratory with the Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium prediction and the predictions of bounded rationality models of decision-making: the redundancy of information neglect model and the overconfidence model. The results of our experiment are in line with the predictions of the overconfidence model and at odds with the others’. (JEL C91, D12, D82, D83)


Author(s):  
Stefania Mosiuk ◽  
Igor Mosiuk ◽  
Vladimir Mosiuk

The purpose of the article is to analyze and substantiate the development of tourism business in Ukraine as a priority component of the national economy. The methodology of this study is to use analytical, spatial, geographical, cultural and other methods. This methodological approach provided an opportunity to carry out a complete analysis of the state of the tourism industry of the state and to draw some conclusions.The scientific novelty lies in the coverage of the real and potential resource potential for the development of the recreational and tourism sphere in Ukraine, detailing the measures for the country ‘s entry into the world tourist market. Conclusions. Analyzing the state and prospects of tourism business development in Ukraine, it should be noted that this industry is one of the priority areas for improving the economy of the country. Historical, cultural – ethnographic, gastronomic, sanatorium and resort potentials of the country will lead the country into world leaders of the tourism industry when creating favorable conditions for investment and proper marketing.


Author(s):  
Julia N. Shubnikova

On the State Universal Scientific Library of the Krasnodar region, which is one of the largest regional libraries in the Russian Federation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Strelkova

The paper examines various approaches to the definition of the term «digital economy» in the scientific and business environment along with factors and forms of its development in different countries taking into account the specifics of the current stage of the Russian economy, which is a matter of particular importance in seeking new sources of the world economy growth. The subject of the research is opportunities and threats inherent in the process of digitalization of economies and their impact on the operation of international and national markets as well as the development of the world economy as a whole. The purpose of the paper was to analyze the practical experience in the formation and development of the digital economy in foreign countries and Russia and identify the changes it brings to the activities of state institutions and business structures, established rules of market exchange, the process of promotion and use of innovations. All the above made it possible to determine the country-level specifics of the digital economy evolution reveal the contradictory nature of its manifestations and justify the necessity for active participation of the state in stimulation and support of potentially promising digital innovations in various sectors of the economy. It is concluded that the level of the digital economy development depends on the real-sector performance, the maturity of markets, the state of the national economy. It is highlighted that the criteria for a comprehensive assessment of the results of the economy digitalization must be developed.


Author(s):  
Оlena Fedorіvna Caracasidi

The article deals with the fundamental, inherent in most of the countries of the world transformation of state power, its formation, functioning and division between the main branches as a result of the decentralization of such power, its subsidiarity. Attention is drawn to the specifics of state power, its func- tional features in the conditions of sovereignty of the states, their interconnec- tion. It is emphasized that the nature of the state power is connected with the nature of the political system of the state, with the form of government and many other aspects of a fundamental nature.It is analyzed that in the middle of national states the questions of legitima- cy, sovereignty of transparency of state power, its formation are acutely raised. Concerning the practical functioning of state power, a deeper study now needs a problem of separation of powers and the distribution of power. The use of this principle, which ensures the real subsidiarity of the authorities, the formation of more effective, responsible democratic relations between state power and civil society, is the first priority of the transformation of state power in the conditions of modern transformations of countries and societies. It is substantiated that the research of these problems will open up much wider opportunities for the provi- sion of state power not as a center authority, but also as a leading political structure but as a power of the people and the community. In the context of global democratization processes, such processes are crucial for a more humanistic and civilized arrangement of human life. It is noted that local self-government, as a specific form of public power, is also characterized by an expressive feature of a special subject of power (territorial community) as a set of large numbers of people; joint communal property; tax system, etc.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Shevchenko ◽  
Andrey Migachev
Keyword(s):  

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