scholarly journals Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 163-197
Author(s):  
Marco Angrisani ◽  
Antonio Guarino ◽  
Philippe Jehiel ◽  
Toru Kitagawa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Action Space ◽  
Space Experiment ◽  
Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium ◽  
Information Redundancy ◽  
Continuous Action ◽  
Learning Experiment ◽  
Bayesian Equilibrium

We study social learning in a continuous action space experiment. Subjects, acting in sequence, state their beliefs about the value of a good after observing their predecessors’ statements and a private signal. We compare the behavior in the laboratory with the Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium prediction and the predictions of bounded rationality models of decision-making: the redundancy of information neglect model and the overconfidence model. The results of our experiment are in line with the predictions of the overconfidence model and at odds with the others’. (JEL C91, D12, D82, D83)

scholarly journals Social Learning with Coarse Inference

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Guarino ◽  
Philippe Jehiel
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
The State ◽  
Action Space ◽  
Continuous Action ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
Behavioral Bias ◽  
Aggregate Distribution ◽  
Rational Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Discrete Action

We study social learning by boundedly rational agents. Agents take a decision in sequence, after observing their predecessors and a private signal. They are unable to make perfect inferences from their predecessors' decisions: they only understand the relation between the aggregate distribution of actions and the state of nature, and make their inferences accordingly. We show that, in a discrete action space, even if agents receive signals of unbounded precision, there are asymptotic inefficiencies. In a continuous action space, compared to the rational case, agents overweight early signals. Despite this behavioral bias, eventually agents learn the realized state of the world and choose the correct action. (JEL D82, D83)

scholarly journals A Discretionary Lane-Changing Decision-Making Mechanism Incorporating Drivers’ Heterogeneity: A Signalling Game-Based Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Haipeng Shao ◽  
Miaoran Zhang ◽  
Tao Feng ◽  
Yifan Dong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Time To Collision ◽  
Mixed Traffic Flow ◽  
Bayesian Equilibrium ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Payoff Functions ◽  
Comparative Results ◽  
Decision Making Model

This paper attempts to propose a discretionary lane-changing decision-making model based on signalling game in the context of mixed traffic flow of autonomous and regular vehicles. The effects of the heterogeneity among different drivers and the endogeneity of same drivers in lane-changing behaviours, e.g., aggressive or conservative, are incorporated through the specification of different payoff functions under different scenarios. The model is calibrated and validated using the NGSIM dataset with a bilevel calibration framework, including two kinds of methods, genetic algorithm and perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Comparative results based on simulation show that the signalling game-based model outperforms the traditional space-based lane-changing model in the sense that the proposed model yields relatively stable reciprocal of time to collision and higher success rate of lane-changing under different traffic densities. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to test the robustness of the proposed model, which indicates that the signalling game-based model is stable to the varying ratios of driver type.

scholarly journals Information redundancy neglect versus overconfidence: a social learning experiment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Jehiel ◽  
Antonio Guarino ◽  
Marco Angrisani ◽  
Toru Kitagawa
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
Information Redundancy ◽  
Learning Experiment

Reasonable Bounds on Rationality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Grossmann ◽  
Richard Eibach
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Cognitive Resources ◽  
Previous Theory ◽  
Making Choices ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Sound Judgment

Previous theory and research on bounded rationality has emphasized how limited cognitive resources constrain people from making utility maximizing choices. This paper expands the concept of bounded rationality to consider how people’s rationality may be constrained by their internalization of a qualitatively distinct standard for sound judgment, which is commonly labeled reasonableness. In contrast to rationality, the standard of reasonableness provides guidance for making choices in situations that involve balancing incommensurable values and interests or reconciling conflicting points-of-view. We review recent evidence showing that laypeople readily recognize the distinctions between rationality and reasonableness and thus are able to utilize these as distinct standards to inform their everyday decision-making. The fact that people appear to have internalized rationality and reasonableness as distinct standards of sound judgment supports the notion that people’s pursuit of rationality may be bounded by their determination to also be reasonable.

Beyond Bounded Rationality: CEO Reflective Capacity and Firm Sustainability Performance

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-38
Author(s):  
Yingya Jia ◽  
Anne S. Tsui ◽  
Xiaoyu Yu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sustainability Performance ◽  
Business Executives ◽  
Dimensional Measure ◽  
Reflective Capacity ◽  
Mediating Mechanisms

ABSTRACT Optimal or rational decision making is not possible due to informational constraints and limits in computation capability of humans (March & Simon, 1958; March, 1978). This bounded rationality serves as a filtering process in decision making among business executives (Hambrick & Mason, 1984). In this study, we propose the concept of CEO reflective capacity as a behavior-oriented cognitive capability that may overcome to some extent the pervasive limitation of bounded rationality in executive decision-making. Following Hinkin's (1998) method and two executive samples, we developed and validated a three-dimensional measure of CEO reflective capacity. Based on two-wave surveys of CEOs and their executive-subordinates in 213 Chinese small-medium sized firms, we tested and confirmed three hypotheses on how CEO reflective capacity is related to a firm's sustainability performance (including economic, societal, and environmental dimensions) through the mediating mechanisms of strategic decision comprehensiveness and CEO behavioral complexity. We discuss the contribution of this study to the literature on the upper echelons and information processing perspectives. We also identify the implications for future research on strategic leadership and managerial cognition in complex and dynamic contexts.

scholarly journals A game strategy model in the digital curling system based on NFSP

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuntao Han ◽  
Qibin Zhou ◽  
Fuqing Duan
Keyword(s):  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Action Space ◽  
Learning Networks ◽  
Game Tree ◽  
Continuous Action ◽  
Extensive Game ◽  
Strategy Model ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
Tree Searching

AbstractThe digital curling game is a two-player zero-sum extensive game in a continuous action space. There are some challenging problems that are still not solved well, such as the uncertainty of strategy, the large game tree searching, and the use of large amounts of supervised data, etc. In this work, we combine NFSP and KR-UCT for digital curling games, where NFSP uses two adversary learning networks and can automatically produce supervised data, and KR-UCT can be used for large game tree searching in continuous action space. We propose two reward mechanisms to make reinforcement learning converge quickly. Experimental results validate the proposed method, and show the strategy model can reach the Nash equilibrium.

scholarly journals Global development of innovative financial services. Does family economic socialization influence investor behavior in real estate crowdfunding?

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 02010
Author(s):  
Renata Legenzova ◽  
Gintarė Leckė
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Investor Behavior ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Global Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Socialization

Research background: Globalization, digitalization and growth of technological innovations trigger development of new financial services, such as real estate crowdfunding. Seeking better return opportunities individual investors often disregard neoclassical decision-making criteria, while behavioral factors, such as social influence, emotions, cognitive abilities are gaining importance. This paper addresses the role of family economics socialization as a complex process by which individuals acquire social skills, knowledge, behavior patterns needed to make investment decision by purposively or spontaneously interacting with their family members. Purpose of the article is to assess if and how family economic socialization impacts on investor behavior in real estate crowdfunding. Methods: Research data was collected through an online survey of Lithuanian real estate crowdfunding investors. Then structural equation modeling technique was employed to investigate the impact of family economic socialization on behavior of real estate crowdfunding investors. Findings & Value added: Findings revealed that majority of real estate crowdfunding investors make bounded rationality investment decisions. Family, as one of the main agents of the economic socialization, does not ensure rationality of the crowdfunding decision-making process. Purposive family economic socialization has no impact on the behavior of investors with bounded rationality, yet it has a significant impact on behavior of rational family members. Spontaneous family economic socialization proved to have a positive and significant impact on the behavior of investors with bounded rationality. Taking into consideration rapid global development of innovative financial services market, such results might be a troubling signal for the product developers and market regulators.

A new EDAS method based on prospect theory for Pythagorean fuzzy set and its application in selecting investment projects for highway

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Ju Liu ◽  
Cuiping Wei ◽  
Jian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Score Function ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Criteria Weights

PurposeChina is a critical factor for constructing an all-round well-off society. Infrastructure construction, especially high-grade highways, in the western area is an essential component of the strategy for large-scale development of west China. It is crucial to evaluate investment projects for high-grade highways and select the best one. Testing investment projects and selecting the best one can be recognized as a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In this process, decision-makers (DMs) usually face with uncertain information because of complicated decision environment or their limited knowledge.Design/methodology/approachA new Evaluation based on the Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) for PFS based on the DEMATEL is proposed: The authors offer a new score function and prove some properties for the score function. They put forward a novel Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for PFS to analyze the relations of criteria and get criteria weights. Considering the bounded rationality of DM, the authors propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on prospect theory. They apply their proposed approach to a western city's actual case in selecting a suitable project for building a high-grade highway.FindingsBy comparison, the authors can observe that our method has some traits: (1) considering bounded rationality of DM; (2) fewer computation; (3) having the ability to obtain the relation of criteria and finding the critical factor in the decision system.Originality/valueIn this paper, the authors propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on the DEMATEL technique. They transform PFS into crisp numbers by their proposed new score function for PFN to make the decision process more convenient. Then, the authors use the DEMATEL method to obtain the relationship between criteria and criteria weights. Furthermore, they propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on DEMATEL to reduce the computational complexity. Finally, they apply our method to a real case and compare our method with two traditional methods.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document